2025-2026 offseason thread

Enscheff said:
I’m going to assume AA had an offer on the table for more years, less per year, and no opt outs.

The Astros are either getting a legit SP for 1 year, or a terrible pitcher for 3 years. The silver lining for them is the absolute downside of $54M can’t be disastrous.

Those $150M+ projections were waaaay off base.
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Framber is likely leaving and this guy is at least a one-year bridge so at that level it makes sense for the Astros.
 
The stros are gambling that they are getting an elite pitcher at18+ million this year with the opportunity to negotiate with him the entire year to work an extension out. If they can't then they got that one year at a discount. The gamble is if he sucks you are stuck with him... but so was any team that signed him to 3 years guaranteed.

no one is disagreeing that player options suck for the team.. but they did get the Astro's at least one good season of elite pitching.. the Braves got nothing.
 
I wouldn’t say this is a bad deal the Astros. There’s significant upside for a year and the downside isn’t that significant. What’re the chances the guy can’t pitch in the majors in any capacity? That seems very low, and is really the only way it’s ends up a bad deal.
 
It’s wild Yamamoto got 12/$325 and Imai had to settle for this kind of deal. Yamamoto was clearly a better prospect, but still.
 
Super said:
It’s wild Yamamoto got 12/$325 and Imai had to settle for this kind of deal. Yamamoto was clearly a better prospect, but still.
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Totally different stratosphere, honestly. The Mets offered Yama even more money. He was as close to a sure thing as you'd expect out of Japan.
 
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I'm curious to see what Framber ends up getting. He's been a work horse and a pretty good one at that. He's 32 so that'll play a part in it.
 
Hudson2 said:
I'm curious to see what Framber ends up getting. He's been a work horse and a pretty good one at that. He's 32 so that'll play a part in it.
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It's tough because he's by far the most reliable arm available, but he is 32 and folks are legitimatetly concerned about last year's incident. My best guess is he settles for a shorter deal but with a really high AAV. Maybe a three-year, $100M deal with a mutual option for the fourth year. A team like the Mets, for instance, are in really bad need of a pitcher like him to lead their staff.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
It's tough because he's by far the most reliable arm available, but he is 32 and folks are legitimatetly concerned about last year's incident. My best guess is he settles for a shorter deal but with a really high AAV. Maybe a three-year, $100M deal with a mutual option for the fourth year. A team like the Mets, for instance, are in really bad need of a pitcher like him to lead their staff.
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The FA SP market is weak next year outside of Skubal so he may wanna do a 1 year deal but I doubt it. 5 years would be the max I'm guessing anybody would offer him.
 
Hudson2 said:
The FA SP market is weak next year outside of Skubal so he may wanna do a 1 year deal but I doubt it. 5 years would be the max I'm guessing anybody would offer him.
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I think he'd be fine with a one-year deal if he were 30 years old. But hitting the market at 33, especially after his elite body of work over the last couple of years, probably isn't worth it. Just take what you can get now cuz it likely won't be more next year.

I know sacrificing the QO pick is everyone's least favorite topic, but if Alex has done his research on Framber's behaviour concerns (and we know he has), then he's the only player remaining that I would be fine losing it for. I don't like the idea of signing a player if the value isn't there contractually, but with so much money coming off the books next year and a clear need for a No. 1 or 2 in case Sale retires, I'm fine stepping out of his comfort zone a little bit.
 
Enscheff said:
Considering all the FAs AA decided not to give $150M+, it would be pretty disappointing if a 32 year old SP was suddenly the guy deemed worthy of such a deal.
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I don't disagree with that. But I think AA's (and ownership's) mindset may be different now than it was a year or two ago, when the team was coming off much higher highs and the window wasn't closing so quickly. At some point, he's probably going to have to make a deal or a trade that's going to hurt and go against his general philosophy.
 
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Enscheff said:
Then do it for a guy like Tucker, not someone like Framber Valdez.
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Again, agreed. But they clearly aren't in the position market. I'm not here to argue about it because I'm absolutely with you. But the writing is on the wall and I wouldn't be remotely shocked, even if it's a missed evaluation by them.
 
This I also agree with. Valdez at some price point makes sense, even with the QO. What is that price? Not sure, but well under $150M.

The price is probably more than whatever Imai would have cost, so I would have preferred the young Japanese talent, personally.
 
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