2025-2026 offseason thread

Metaphysicist said:
I give the Braves plenty of credit for Fried, and for Teheran, and for smart trades like Hudson, Jurrjens, Sale, etc.

The point being made, however, is that those kinds of moves should be in addition to—not in place of—actually using the draft to find pitchers who we can develop and give us good reliable innings.

Since 1990, pitchers the braves have drafted in the first 5 rounds:

1991: 2
1992: 3
1993: 1
1994: 3
1995: 4
1996: 2
1997: 2
1998: 2
1999: 2
2000: 7
2001: 3
2002: 3
2003: 6
2004: 1
2005: 5
2006: 7
2007: 2
2008: 5
2009: 3
2010: 1
2011: 2
2012: 2
2013: 2
2014: 4
2015: 6
2016: 6
2017: 4
2018: 3
2019: 1
2020 — We drafted Strider (and Elder!) so we will stop there.

From 1991-2020, that’s a total of 94 pitchers taken in the top rounds. The only one of those to reach 10 rWAR with us is Craig Kimbrel (Millwood was drafted in the 11th round in 1993, so all credit to that scout). There are any number of explanations of for “why,” but taken together it's just a staggering failure to draft and develop a reliable starter with our draft resources.
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I agree. Typically you should be able to luck into at least 2-3 ten year vets over a span that long. Our lack of SP development from drafts in 90s and most of the 2000's was definitely troublesome. But over the past roughly 20 years, we seem to have performed much better at scouting and development in that department. The issue has been keeping them healthy.

Maybe identifying guys that have already had TJS wasn't such a great plan.
 
Enscheff said:
So knowing all this...why draft a pitcher at all?

Why not draft as many position players like Mac and Fenchy and Heyward and Freeman and Swanson (not drafted I know) and Harris and Riley and Baldwin, develop them like this organization seems very capable of doing, and trade the excess bats for established pitchers?

Why even bother failing with pitchers over and over?
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Beacuse they view pitchers as higher value capital for acquiring position players (even if they don’t seem to operate that way lately), and as discussed as nauseum - and this thread bears it out- pitchers have an incredibly high bust/break rate, so you need piles and piles of them- the theory that we could use bats to acquire pitchers doesn’t really work because a big bat may only net you one or two hot pitching prospects - which are time bombs and you may end up with zilch value in two years while your big bat is crushing for some other team…. Just my two cents
 
Enscheff said:
So knowing all this...why draft a pitcher at all?

Why not draft as many position players like Mac and Fenchy and Heyward and Freeman and Swanson (not drafted I know) and Harris and Riley and Baldwin, develop them like this organization seems very capable of doing, and trade the excess bats for established pitchers?

Why even bother failing with pitchers over and over?
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Yup. I feel pretty confident that we'd have a much longer window had we not gone pitching-first in the draft for so long. It's killed our system.
 
msstate7 said:
Not sure what previous GMs picks mean for current GM though.
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Correct. What does a draft from 2010 have to do with today? Other teams have had more success. I don’t think you stop drafting pitchers because of what happened decades ago.

I think they’ve done pretty well drafting pitchers lately (except in the 1st round…except CamCam).
 
Super said:
I’d love Gore but I think the price will be high. He’s primed to turn into a beast.
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I’d have done an equivalent deal for Gore after seeing what Texas gave up. Very possible Nats didn’t want to in-division but I doubt they care. Gore has a lot of untapped potential. Feels like a buy-low from Texas even though his value hasn’t tanked or anything.
 
Hulavol said:
Beacuse they view pitchers as higher value capital for acquiring position players (even if they don’t seem to operate that way lately), and as discussed as nauseum - and this thread bears it out- pitchers have an incredibly high bust/break rate, so you need piles and piles of them- the theory that we could use bats to acquire pitchers doesn’t really work because a big bat may only net you one or two hot pitching prospects - which are time bombs and you may end up with zilch value in two years while your big bat is crushing for some other team…. Just my two cents
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If the Braves were churning out 2x the number of Harris and Baldwin type players they currently are, they could trade for Gore and Peralta every single offseason.
 
So, looking at Tommy Hanson in 2010, when he threw 202 innings and seemed to be on the verge of stardom....

What stands out looking at the game logs are the number of pitches he threw very early in the season. He was at or over 100 pitches in each of his first three starts and in six of his first eight. Then, in four starts in May and June, he threw 109, 118, 121 and 101. After that, the pitch counts drop off a little bit through the end of the season.

I don't think you should treat 100 pitches as a bright red line beyond which there's only a sign that says "dragons be here." That said, I'm fairly confident in saying that a major league team in 2026 wouldn't let it's 23-year-old ace-in-the-making throw that many pitches.
 
MadduxFanII said:
So, looking at Tommy Hanson in 2010, when he threw 202 innings and seemed to be on the verge of stardom....

What stands out looking at the game logs are the number of pitches he threw very early in the season. He was at or over 100 pitches in each of his first three starts and in six of his first eight. Then, in four starts in May and June, he threw 109, 118, 121 and 101. After that, the pitch counts drop off a little bit through the end of the season.

I don't think you should treat 100 pitches as a bright red line beyond which there's only a sign that says "dragons be here." That said, I'm fairly confident in saying that a major league team in 2026 wouldn't let it's 23-year-old ace-in-the-making throw that many pitches.
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The Tariff King said:
Hanson had some gnarly mechanics. I wasn't surprised his shoulder got destroyed.
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He did. I believe when he came back from the shoulder, he tried to fix it but it was over by then.

Beachy was so much fun to watch pitch. UDFA, and the guy commanded the zone like crazy. Probably some of the best command I've seen.
 
CyYoung31 said:
Braves hadn’t had a strike out pitcher (SP) like him since Smoltz, and wouldn’t again until Strider came along.
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his minor league numbers were crazy

I remember checking them every 5 days and they just got better and better

That whole rotation got the surgical hex and they were all super young
 
thethe said:
No international guys? (Teheran)

THink we should get credit for Fried here!
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the point was to compare to other teams and to do that, you have to set criteria that fits the data you have available AND to point to a teams DRAFTING philosophy. So adding international guys would take away from the comparison because that is not even among all teams (one team could sign 4 players while another signs no one) plus the Braves had several years of no Inter guys.. as far as Fried, you can't add him because you can't query all the teams that traded for a guy in A ball and mostly developed him.. how do you even determine those parameters..

Meta's point is valid and he backed it up with data that was readily available and even across the league. Folks griping about one player here and there doesn't detract from that.
 
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