2025-2026 offseason thread

Barry Bonds is the greatest defensive left fielder in history and its isn't close. He is not overrated.

1769550228404.png

Even among all outfielders, he trails only Andruw and Clemente:

1769550266118.png

At ages 30-33, 1995-1998--so just pre-"I'm mad about McGwire/Sosa and will do sterioids even harder than them"--he put up the following:

1995: +12
1996: +10
1997: +14
1998: +10

Those are fantastic defensive seasons, even if they do not match his Andruw-esque numbers from his early 20s.

In 1999 he was hurt, and then in 2000 he was the size of a house.

As Enscheff correctly notes, baserunning value is just very limited, even for good runners like Bonds (only about +5 WAR over his whole career). He only averaged +3 runs or so per year 95-98, though he had +8 (per bbref) in 1996 during his 40/40 year. In the hypothetical "good legs" scenario, adding that to his maintained defense, he could add 1.0-1.5 WAR added to his seasonal WAR total.
 
Metaphysicist said:
Barry Bonds is the greatest defensive left fielder in history and its isn't close. He is not overrated.

View attachment 736

Even among all outfielders, he trails only Andruw and Clemente:

View attachment 737

At ages 30-33, 1995-1998--so just pre-"I'm mad about McGwire/Sosa and will do sterioids even harder than them"--he put up the following:

1995: +12
1996: +10
1997: +14
1998: +10

Those are fantastic defensive seasons, even if they do not match his Andruw-esque numbers from his early 20s.

In 1999 he was hurt, and then in 2000 he was the size of a house.

As Enscheff correctly notes, baserunning value is just very limited, even for good runners like Bonds (only about +5 WAR over his whole career). He only averaged +3 runs or so per year 95-98, though he had +8 (per bbref) in 1996 during his 40/40 year. In the hypothetical "good legs" scenario, adding that to his maintained defense, he could add 1.0-1.5 WAR added to his seasonal WAR total.
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Andruw, Heyward and Brian Jordan. Not bad.
 
Metaphysicist said:
Barry Bonds is the greatest defensive left fielder in history and its isn't close. He is not overrated.

View attachment 736

Even among all outfielders, he trails only Andruw and Clemente:

View attachment 737

At ages 30-33, 1995-1998--so just pre-"I'm mad about McGwire/Sosa and will do sterioids even harder than them"--he put up the following:

1995: +12
1996: +10
1997: +14
1998: +10

Those are fantastic defensive seasons, even if they do not match his Andruw-esque numbers from his early 20s.

In 1999 he was hurt, and then in 2000 he was the size of a house.

As Enscheff correctly notes, baserunning value is just very limited, even for good runners like Bonds (only about +5 WAR over his whole career). He only averaged +3 runs or so per year 95-98, though he had +8 (per bbref) in 1996 during his 40/40 year. In the hypothetical "good legs" scenario, adding that to his maintained defense, he could add 1.0-1.5 WAR added to his seasonal WAR total.
Click to expand...

Didn't help him throw out Sid.
 
Metaphysicist said:
Barry Bonds is the greatest defensive left fielder in history and its isn't close. He is not overrated.

View attachment 736

Even among all outfielders, he trails only Andruw and Clemente:

View attachment 737

At ages 30-33, 1995-1998--so just pre-"I'm mad about McGwire/Sosa and will do sterioids even harder than them"--he put up the following:

1995: +12
1996: +10
1997: +14
1998: +10

Those are fantastic defensive seasons, even if they do not match his Andruw-esque numbers from his early 20s.

In 1999 he was hurt, and then in 2000 he was the size of a house.

As Enscheff correctly notes, baserunning value is just very limited, even for good runners like Bonds (only about +5 WAR over his whole career). He only averaged +3 runs or so per year 95-98, though he had +8 (per bbref) in 1996 during his 40/40 year. In the hypothetical "good legs" scenario, adding that to his maintained defense, he could add 1.0-1.5 WAR added to his seasonal WAR total.
Click to expand...

This info about his defense is true. However, his best defensive seasons happened in the 80s. The question specifically asked about his defense, or “legs”, in the 90s, when he was already very mediocre.

I put zero stock in BRef defensive values, and thus bWAR.

So yes, his defense in the 90s was greatly overrated.
 
Enscheff said:
This info about his defense is true. However, his best defensive seasons happened in the 80s. The question specifically asked about his defense, or “legs”, in the 90s, when he was already very mediocre.

I put zero stock in BRef defensive values, and thus bWAR.

So yes, his defense in the 90s was greatly overrated.
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FG and BBref both use the same defensive numbers, Total Zone, for the 90s. These are the exact same numbers in his Fangraphs WAR pre-2002. I have no idea what distinction you are making.
 
Metaphysicist said:
FG and BBref both use the same defensive numbers, Total Zone, for the 90s. These are the exact same numbers in his Fangraphs WAR pre-2002. I have no idea what distinction you are making.
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What the…what?

It is very easy to compare BRef’s Rfield numbers you referenced to the Def numbers on FG and see they are not the same. It’s absurd to claim otherwise when it’s so trivial to look at both numbers.

According to FG, Bonds was very close to average overall defensively after 1990 following several seasons being elite in the late 80s and 1990. I’m not even sure what to discuss if someone can’t see obviously different numbers are different.
 
Enscheff said:
What the…what?

It is very easy to compare BRef’s Rfield numbers you referenced to the Def numbers on FG and see they are not the same. It’s absurd to claim otherwise when it’s so trivial to look at both numbers.

According to FG, Bonds was very close to average overall defensively after 1990 following several seasons being elite in the late 80s and 1990. I’m not even sure what to discuss if someone can’t see obviously different numbers are different.
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Yes I agree, the stat pages are there for all to look at, and they are very easy to read.

BRef:

1769573371939.png

Fangraphs:

1769573416204.png

I believe you are just looking at the "Defense" column, which is a runs-based equivalent to "dWAR" on BRef. These stats include a positional adjustment, not just fielding metrics; thus his +12 in 1995 gets a -6.5 for being a left fielder, resulting in a 5.5. The purpose is to be able to compare between position, not intra position. Being "average" in "Defense/dWAR" means having the defensive value of a league average player at any position, which is pretty good for a leftfielder.
 
Metaphysicist said:
Yes I agree, the stat pages are there for all to look at, and they are very easy to read.

BRef:

View attachment 738

Fangraphs:

View attachment 739

I believe you are just looking at the "Defense" column, which is a runs-based equivalent to "dWAR" on BRef. These stats include a positional adjustment, not just fielding metrics; thus his +12 in 1995 gets a -6.5 for being a left fielder, resulting in a 5.5. The purpose is to be able to compare between position, not intra position. Being "average" in "Defense/dWAR" means having the defensive value of a league average player at any position, which is pretty good for a leftfielder.
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The question I was considering was: "how much more WAR would Bonds have if he could still run in the 2000s like he could in the 90s?".

The answer is: "not much more because his base running and defense did not contribute much more WAR in the 90s than it did in the 2000s".

How he compared to other LFers is irrelevant for this question about WAR. All that matters, when answering that question, is how much WAR his legs contributed in the 90s compared to the 2000s. And again, the answer is "not much" because LFers (even "elite LFers", which is a silly accolade to give someone) don't tend to generate much defensive WAR...that's why they play LF. He would have accumulated more WAR if the DH was available to him like it is aging NL players today. That's all. I fully understand how defensive stats are calculated.
 
Hudson2 said:
Giolito's elbow scares me a lot. Bassitt I like for eating innings, the 91 MPH fastball is blah but he can help.
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Agreed. Overall, I'm fine with Giolito or Bassitt. Both give you quality innings. Gio has upside, Bassitt has clear durability. Both extend the rotation, protect you from injuries and push an arm to the bullpen, which is already a strength imo. Count me in
 
The lack of K's concerns me on Giolito. Was 2025 just an aberration or is this the pitcher he is now?

Bassitt is a solid innings eater. Pretty much what we missed from Uncle Charlie last year vs 2024.

I would prefer Bassitt.
 
Carp said:
The lack of K's concerns me on Giolito. Was 2025 just an aberration or is this the pitcher he is now?

Bassitt is a solid innings eater. Pretty much what we missed from Uncle Charlie last year vs 2024.

I would prefer Bassitt.
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The significant K drop off is weird. His velocity was the same.
 
As with everything else in the world, it depends on cost -- Giolito could well make sense on a small enough contract. But he did turn down a $19 million mutual option to hit free agency and got a $1.5 million buyout, so I doubt he'll accept anything that we'd regard as a bargain.

He'd also be another addition to our stable of talented starters with serious injury concerns, so he doesn't really solve the core issue there. A rotation of Sale-Strider-Schwellenbach-Giolito-Holmes/Whoever leaves you deeply exposed to injury.
 
Enscheff said:
How he compared to other LFers is irrelevant for this question about WAR.
Click to expand...

Of course it is relevant. That’s how defense is measured. WAR, in whichever formulation, is Def + Pos + Off. The defensive component (DRS, UZR, OAA) is measured against other players at the same position. When he was +20 runs better than the average left fielder in the 80s, that meant he got ~2 WAR for that each year. When he +10 runs better than the average left fielder in the 90s, he got ~1 WAR for that each year. When he was -2 runs versus the average left fielder in the 2000s, he got ~ -0.2 WAR for that each year.

Enscheff said:
The answer is: "not much more because his base running and defense did not contribute much more WAR in the 90s than it did in the 2000s".
Click to expand...

He averaged 0.6 dWAR per 162 in the 90s (1990-1999). He averaged -0.9 dWAR per 162 in the 2000s (2000-2007). ~That’s a 1.5 WAR difference per year, just from defense, between the two decades. So, sure, if that is meaningless to you, then there you have it. I find that to be real difference however, since each year only a handful of guys top 2 dWAR.
 
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