CrimsonCowboy
Moderator
What the what?
2025 Around The League Thread
- Thread starter Carp
- Start date
Nerfherders
Well-known member
Missile? Like an actual one or a vague term of 'flying object'?
Flying object. But when it’s coming out of Furcal’s hand, it qualifies as a missile.
I find it really hard to believe AA was anywhere near what the Phillies gave him. He was pretty great in 2022, and 2021 ERA not withstanding. That said, I could see him being a mid to high 3 ERA guy for the length of that contract, which may not look so bad in 3 years.
He was released on bond. So he probably throw a bottle or cup
I suspect if AA had an offer out on Nola it was a higher AAV deal for 3-4 years. If it was anything close to the same length he might as well tried to retain Fried.
His ERA since 2019 is right at 4 and he's trending in the wrong direction. Looks like he's had some bad luck on balls in play this year, but his fastball velocity continues to decline and he's giving up more HR than ever.
True, his FB is down 1MPH this year which is big, but that hasn’t really declined until this year so not sure I get the “continues to” statement. He had a couple of higher ERA years where he pitched better than his ERA suggests which inflates that number. He’s always given up homers and I’m guessing that MPH less this year is primarily what’s making it worse. He’s never really been hurt, mechanics look pretty easy and fluid so I don’t think he’s in for big injuries even if he isn’t 100% right now. I think he’ll age pretty solidly.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
I havent done any research yet but how many teams do you think Grant Holmes would be in the rotation at this exact moment? Not as in who would have moved him to the rotation but who is currently starting someone worse than him? Off the top of my head I would guess 18-20.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
to lose a whole mph off the FA from last years screams arm issues.. That is a huge drop from one season to the next.. being older, it is more feasible I guess... but man, that is a big drop.
Nerfherders
Well-known member
It was more fun to imagine Furcal with a rocket launcher.
Dude, Nola is toast unless he can reinvent himself. Declining velocity, career high hard hit rate, career high EVs, etc.
Over the previous 2 seasons, his ERA and FIP are almost identical. He was a 4.00ish ERA pitcher and now his stuff is declining further.
Since 2019, his fastball velocity each year:
93.3
93.1
93.1
92.9
92.9
92.6
91.6
Hence, "continues."
And yeah he's always outpitched his ERA (even this season), but you said you expected him to be a mid-high 3s ERA pitcher for the rest of his contract. I have trouble seeing him do that in his age 32-37 seasons when he hasn't managed it age 26-32, especially not when his fastball velocity and peripherals are already in decline. Even if you expect the HR rate to drop from where it is right now (it probably will), his HR rate over the last 3 seasons is still pretty bad and significantly higher than his career rate. His K% is down, his BB% is up, and he's getting hit harder than ever.
I don't think he's as bad as he's been so far this year, but he's pretty clearly in decline.
Yes and the post I quoted was talking about from 2019 on.
I see you conveniently left out what it was before that 93.3. Let me help:
92.6
92.9 (arguably his best season)
I doubt 93.1 to 92.9 is a statistically significant decline.
Not sure why you’re nitpicking so much. He was a mid-3 ERA pitcher *last year*. He’s gone up and down on his ERA being better than his FIP and for his career it’s 3.78 and 3.50 respectively…which is pretty close. Short of a current catastrophic arm problem, it’s hardly unreasonable for him to be what he’s roughly been his entire career. He’s always been up and down ERA-wise, likely due to just how costly each home run ends up being, and that will continue. I could see him being the pitcher he was *last year* (or slightly worse) for the length of the contract…that’s all I said…to act as if it’s not possible is wrong.
Toast? Based on 49IP this year? Wild