2025 Spring Training Thread

I still think someone in the organization messed with Waldrep. There's no way we didn't have data on his stuff and we don't draft him with the data we're seeing. There's also no way literally everyone was so wrong about his splitter. It makes more sense that someone tweaked his delivery or something and it has robbed him of some movement.
 
I've also heard people say it's the variability of his split that makes it so "deadly". Sometimes it breaks down and away, sometimes straight down, and sometimes it just breaks in...sort of like a knuckleball. The problem with that theory is the movement chart shows a cluster very similar in size to the cluster of most breaking balls. So there's literally no data that shows this pitch does anything extraordinary in any way, and any data that shows it's mediocre is called "incorrect". That's the definition of blind faith cult mindset.
 
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Enscheff said:
I've also heard people say it's the variability of his split that makes it so "deadly". Sometimes it breaks down and away, sometimes straight down, and sometimes it just breaks in...sort of like a knuckleball. The problem with that theory is the movement chart shows a cluster very similar in size to the cluster of most breaking balls. So there's literally no data that shows this pitch does anything extraordinary in any way, and any data that shows it's mediocre is called "incorrect". That's the definition of blind faith cult mindset.
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Freaking Kiley McDaniel, your Fangraph God himself, called it a special pitch dude. I don't what else to tell you. It overwhelmingly is considered a great pitch.

You do realize pitchers can have 1 great pitch and still be a really bad pitcher right?
 
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striker42 said:
I still think someone in the organization messed with Waldrep. There's no way we didn't have data on his stuff and we don't draft him with the data we're seeing. There's also no way literally everyone was so wrong about his splitter. It makes more sense that someone tweaked his delivery or something and it has robbed him of some movement.
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For one, there seems to be some variation on what his spin rates were in college. Some clocked his slider in the 3000's, which would make it one of the better sliders in baseball if that were true. But others clocked his spin rates in the lower 2000's, which makes it a very average pitch. So far, the data in AAA and and at the ML level suggest his spin rates on his slider are closer to the lower to mid 2000 range which confirm it is very average. But his splitter garnered more swing and misses his junior year of college than Skenes slider did. So that itself shows you it is a really good pitch.

The main culprit that holds him back and was most certainly a knock on him in college, is that he has bad command. His walk rate of 5.0 as a Junior is pretty clear evidence of that.
 
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Carp said:
For one, there seems to be some variation on what his spin rates were in college. Some clocked his slider in the 3000's, which would make it one of the better sliders in baseball if that were true. But others clocked his spin rates in the lower 2000's, which makes it a very average pitch. So far, the data in AAA and and at the ML level suggest his spin rates on his slider are closer to the mid 2000 range, which makes it very average. But his splitter garnered more swing and misses his junior year of college than Skenes slider did. So that itself shows you it is a really good pitch.

The main culprit that holds him back and was most certainly a knock on him in college, is that he has bad command. His walk rate of 5.0 as a Junior is pretty clear evidence of that.
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That's pretty amazing stat on swing and miss vs skenes' pitch.
 
The thing is, it's not like we reached on Waldrep in the draft or ignored obvious bad data that scared everyone else away. MLB Pipeline had him ranked as the 19th-best prospect in the draft. Fangraphs had him 6th, and if anyone would be cognizant of bad pitch data, it would be Fangraphs.
 
Carp said:
Freaking Kiley McDaniel, your Fangraph God himself, called it a special pitch dude. I don't what else to tell you. It overwhelmingly is considered a great pitch.

You do realize pitchers can have 1 great pitch and still be a really bad pitcher right?
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Kiley McDaniel is a hack, and is no longer with FG. You will never find a post where I claimed he was anything special. He's also the fool who said Pache's floor was Kevin Pillar (or some other average CFer), remember?

Anyways, we will see how Waldrep pans out. Odd hill for you to decide to die on though. Defend Waldrep's stuff until your last breath!!

Regardless of what you think data is telling you, the pitch physically moves how it moves...as tracked by radar. Literally anyone can look at those numbers and compare them to other similar pitches. This information is at everyone's fingertips, so there's no need to go read scouting comments.

I'll stick with my track record of evaluating pitchers' stuff.
 
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MadduxFanII said:
The thing is, it's not like we reached on Waldrep in the draft or ignored obvious bad data that scared everyone else away. MLB Pipeline had him ranked as the 19th-best prospect in the draft. Fangraphs had him 6th, and if anyone would be cognizant of bad pitch data, it would be Fangraphs.
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I suspect the pitch data coming out of college was...inaccurate. It's very clear there's nothing special, deadly, or effective about his arsenal right now. I find it hard to believe the Braves dev guys made a tweak that cost him 500 RPM on the slider and neutered his split. The FA is unplayable, he can't spin a slider, and the supposedly deadly split moves like every mediocre split. To compound it all he has below average command, at best.

All we can hope for is something to change, which is likely why he was booted from MLB camp after 1 game.
 
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Enscheff said:
Kiley McDaniel is a hack, and is no longer with FG. You will never find a post where I claimed he was anything special. He's also the fool who said Pache's floor was Kevin Pillar (or some other average CFer), remember?

Anyways, we will see how Waldrep pans out. Odd hill for you to decide to die on though. Defend Waldrep's stuff until your last breath!!

I'll stick with my track record of evaluating pitchers' stuff.
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I defended 1 pitch. 1 freaking pitch, because literally everyone is in agreement that its legitimately a great pitch. For some reason, you decided to focus on the semantics of calling 1 pitch deadly and instead ignored the remainder of my posts where I said he was still a bad pitcher and likely only a reliever unless he improved his command dramatically.

So congrats on completing missing the point I guess.
 
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Carp said:
I defended 1 pitch. 1 freaking pitch, because literally everyone is in agreement that its legitimately a great pitch. For some reason, you decided to focus on the semantics of calling 1 pitch deadly and instead ignored the remainder of my posts where I said he was still a bad pitcher and likely only a reliever unless he improved his command dramatically.

Instead, you'd rather be an assclown, incapable of having thoughtful discussion. So congrats I guess.
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Statcast literally tracks the physical movement of the pitch, hosts that data for free, and you can compare that movement with other similar pitches. You can do this yourself with 7 clicks of your mouse. There's no reason to parrot what "everyone" says about the pitch when you can look at the data directly.

You can look at how much it moves. Then you can look at how much every other split moves. You can then compare those numbers.

There's literally no debate to be had...the pitch factually doesn't move in an extraordinary manner compared to other similar pitches.

Waldrep currently does not have the arsenal to be a successful MLB pitcher. Period. Hopefully they can make improvements.
 
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Schwelly has a pretty darn good split btw... also, because you fools made me go to savant.. Shelby Miller is still pitching and has an alright splitter.
 
To share some good news, it looks like Snit may actually competently create a lineup on opening day:

Profar, JLF S
Riley, A3B R
Olson1B L
OzunaDH R
Albies2B S
Harris II, MCF L
Arcia, OrSS R
KelenicRF L
CasaliC R

Any complaints with this lineup are almost meaningless. If Profar really is a .380 OBP guy, Acuna comes back at even an .800 OPS, and Murphy/Baldwin are what everyone hopes they are, this could be the best offense in the game.
 
Well...as I've started since seeing him make lower level guys look stupid, I posted that lower level batters didn't stand a chance. I stated that it's because they swung at pitches better hitters are going to just look at because the FB command was garbage. He's the type of pitcher that if he gets ahead in the count, that splitter, sinker thingy becomes a feasibly "deadly" pitch because it does whatever it does. Or doesn't do.

All that said, I'm not statcast or data struck. Even the eye test doesn't like this version of Waldrep because at this point he won't ever reach his one true pitch. It boils down to command. Frustrating, but I do think there is something there. Reliever?
 
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