Nerfherders
Well-known member
After Sale's generation retires, we may never see another 100 game winner (as a metric for longevity). These guys burn out too fast.
2025 Trade Deadline Thread
- Thread starter Carp
- Start date
Scouting reports have famously never missed on guys, good point.
Using FV to generally gauge a player’s value is fine, tell cy’s mom to remove the dildo from your cheeks and you’ll feel a little better I think
Can you repeat that for ‘Scheff in the other thread? Thanks.
I think for some we’re long past the point of removal
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Its fine like using runs and RBI to quantify how good a player is fine. I heard Acunas wife had a son. What do you think his future value is? I heard it was a very short labor so he already has plus speed. Gotta be a 50 atleast.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
already has great speed... that was pretty good
This is just pure stupidity revealing a clear misunderstanding of what FV is and what it’s claiming to measure. There’s a reason MLB teams have poached almost every original contributor to that system, and it’s not because it “wasn’t that hard”.
If it’s so easy you should probably start publishing your own superior prospect tracking information. You’d probably make a nice chink of change with the internet traffic it would drive. But you won’t because you can’t because you don’t know what FV does, how to improve it, or how to make an alternative.
Given the volatility of pitching prospects, the optimal resource deployment would be to focus on position player prospects because they are a better bet to turn into MLB players. Let other teams go through the pain of developing pitchers, then use the easier to develop hitting prospects to acquire pitchers who survived that development process.
Given how little the Braves have spent on hitting prospects and the number of impact bats they have developed, I’m a little surprised they haven’t gone more heavily with hitters. Investing so much resources into risky pitching was a poor decision.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Future Value (FV) is a grade on the 20-80 scale that maps to anticipated annual WAR production during a player's first six years of service. It describes what a player's future overall value or what a tool's future may look like
The problem is a player has a ceiling and a floor. Jose Perdomo was a 45 on the 2024 list. His upside is much higher but they just hedge their bets by giving him a 45. That makes it worthless. FV of someone in the high minors makes sense. Its just retarded for players before that.
I dont have the time to build a projection system and I certainly dont need the money. Stick around long enough and when I retire I might just do it for fun. Pattern recognition is my best skill. I havent visited Baseball Prospectus in probably 10 years but they had a system I think called PECOTA that would break down 90% projections 80% and so on to show potential outcomes. FV just takes the 50% projection and gives nothing else.
You're 100% correct, and the arguments against FV are simply revealing a misunderstanding about what it represents.
A young toolsy lottery ticket is worth the same as an older less exciting sure thing because the lottery ticket is going to flop most of the time. Then they constantly adjust the valuation based on how often each type of prospect ends up delivering value...it's why young pitchers are less valuable than young hitters due to their volatility. A pitcher throwing 100 with great spin has Ace upside, but his arm is probably never going to survive 1000 pitches, so he's less valuable than a hitter who is likely to take swings at the MLB level.
FV is in not trying to measure ultimate upside, even though ultimate upside is part of the valuation. Anyone confused by that should probably stop looking at FV numbers.
Oklahomabrave
Anytime Now Frankie...
where?
This is true, especially if the Braves pay his 2025 salary. A free (in terms of cash) impact bat at a premium position performing at 100% health with extra control and a contender's premium will be his peak trade value.
If AA wants to cash out some value at the catcher position, now is the time.
However, this trade is not acceptable: https://www.si.com/onsi/fantasy/mlb/mlb-mock-trade-atlanta-braves-deal-sean-murphy-san-diego-padres
A 35+ A ball SS and an MLB BP arm isn't even close to what AA should be targeting. In fact, it's so far off the mark I feel like SI can be ignored moving forward.
A 35+ A ball SS and an MLB BP arm isn't even close to what AA should be targeting. In fact, it's so far off the mark I feel like SI can be ignored moving forward.
You realize we would be targeting MLB ready prospects or guys just recently promoted right?
msstate7
Well-known member
Yes, mlb ready guys, which are what contenders want to keep.
It would have to be a team with a young MLB SS playing out of position, or a team with a SS prospect ready to go in 2026 that's blocked by a current MLB SS, or a 3 team trade where another seller sends their MLB SS in exchange for prospects from the 3rd team.
So yes, there's a very narrow band of possibilities, which is why it's unlikely to happen. But the Rays and Cards and Padres have the ammo to make it happen if they wanted to fix their catching position, and I think the Rays are the most likely to do it. Murphy just seems like a guy they would love.