4/29 rubber game vs Phillies

[thethe]

Even if "saddled by debt" their economics should be good. They borrowed at a great time to borrow money. If they borrowed half a billion dollars to build the Battery and ballpark at 4%, debt service would be $20M. And I doubt the ballclub has to subsidize the rest of the development; they've told us it's the other way round. So maybe half that is baseball team responsibility.

That's not quite a Markakis of interest.

A large facility will be indexed on either the prime or LIBOR rates. There is too much intetest rate risk from the banks perspective to offer such large amounts at fixed rates.

 

[thethe]

The FIRST order of business is extending Albies/Acuna (maybe Soroka). If they say no...add 5 million. If they say no again add another 10 million.

Just get it done.

 

[Enscheff]

They have about 55-60M minimum commitments...assume a 125M payroll...that leaves 65-70M to play with...needs likely to include catcher, third and bryce harper

I have the Braves at about $55M next year if they bring back everyone that can be brought back, except McCarthy.

Assuming a payroll of $120M+, that’s $65M+ to fill C, 3B, LF, half the bench, and about half the BP.

I expect them to sign Grandal or Flowers, another stop gap 3B, a few competent players for the BP and bench, and then dump a lot of resources into LF. I’d be shocked if that results in Harper coming to Atlanta.

 

[Braves1976]

Thought we were supposed to see matz Tuesday night. Now it shows Thor, deGrom, and the rookie that replaced Harvey

Jason Vargas will pitch for the Mets vs Folty in game three after getting killed by the Padres for 9 runs in just over 3 innings, including two homers, his first start. He is no rookie, Vargas has been around a while. If we can get a decent game from Folty in game three we should win that game. So need to split the first two to win the series in that case.

 

[smootness]

In the interest of gathering information whether good, bad or indifferent here is something from Bowman's mailbag:

Are the Braves going to have a noticeably higher payroll next year?
-- @BravesAmerica

At this stage, it seems safe to say the Braves' payroll for the 2019 season will still rest between $120 million-$130 million. The only players under contract beyond this season are Freeman, Teheran and Inciarte, who will combine to make $38 million. Approximately $13 million more could go toward arbitration-eligible players (Arodys Vizcaino, Mike Foltynewicz, Sam Freeman and Dan Winkler). Then of course you have a number of players like Albies, Acuna and Swanson, who will all likely make less than $1 million as they wait to become arbitration-eligible.

When the Matt Kemp trade was made, I projected the Braves could have up to $80 million to spend this offseason. A team official later indicated the figure might be closer to $30 million-$50 million. More recently, I've heard the team will likely have at least $50 million to use as they peruse the upcoming offseason's talent-rich free-agent market and address multiple needs, which could include third base, catcher and right field.

How much money is available to spend will also be influenced by the success of the team's top prospects over the course of the season. Rotation needs will be better understood once the team gets a better feel for what can be expected from Sean Newcomb, Luiz Gohara, Foltynewicz, Soroka, Kyle Wright and Kolby Allard. Austin Riley's rise will determine whether third base is truly considered an area of need.


This is a little confusing. Bowman has them with maybe 55 million committed to next season and spending 50 million on the FA market.

In the same article as saying they will be between 120-130m in payroll.

With random comment about big debt from national beat writer who was on top of last dysfunction, I am concerned.

Maybe Bowman just miscalculated what they have committed. Or maybe the Braves are looking at extensions. Or maybe they are looking at a 100-110m payroll regardless of what their attendance looks like.

That's not going to go over well.

He may just mean $50ish million for the real long-term needs, not the relative little we’ll need in addition to fill out the pen and bench.

 

[Russ2dollas]

I have the Braves at about $55M next year if they bring back everyone that can be brought back, except McCarthy.

Assuming a payroll of $120M+, that’s $65M+ to fill C, 3B, LF, half the bench, and about half the BP.

I expect them to sign Grandal or Flowers, another stop gap 3B, a few competent players for the BP and bench, and then dump a lot of resources into LF. I’d be shocked if that results in Harper coming to Atlanta.

Bowman’s last mailbag said 30-50 million. Sounds like it’s 50 and maybe less if we get the extensions done.

Not hearing the Riley army since he went 0-10. Moustskis makes the most sense. Question is if boras will play ball.

 

[thethe]

Bowman’s last mailbag said 30-50 million. Sounds like it’s 50 and maybe less if we get the extensions done.

Not hearing the Riley army since he went 0-10. Moustskis makes the most sense. Question is if boras will play ball.

This is such an insane point. For starters he hasn't played the last two days so he may be banged up. Secondly, we constantly hear that Riley hasn't done it for long enough and the focus is on the 1/3 of a season in A+ last year. But now we are going to get 'ribbed' because he recently had a 0-10. Come on man - Thats crazy.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

A large facility will be indexed on either the prime or LIBOR rates. There is too much intetest rate risk from the banks perspective to offer such large amounts at fixed rates.

True. But, they've been historically low for a decade, although it seems to be perking up. And it's probably multiple banks, spread the risk. Nevertheless, as I said, even a pretty significant debt load shouldn't dramatically impact what they have to spend.

Additionally, they've got something on the order of $38m on the books for '19 payroll, plus arbitration guys plus pre-arb guys...so what's that, $60m, tops? Seems to me that $50m to spend would be a payroll decrease. I'm sure there's something I must be missing, but shouldn't we be flush? I'd be for pushing that forward to try and lock in our own free agents later, kind of a deferred acquisition cost.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

I have the Braves at about $55M next year if they bring back everyone that can be brought back, except McCarthy.

Assuming a payroll of $120M+, that’s $65M+ to fill C, 3B, LF, half the bench, and about half the BP.

I expect them to sign Grandal or Flowers, another stop gap 3B, a few competent players for the BP and bench, and then dump a lot of resources into LF. I’d be shocked if that results in Harper coming to Atlanta.

It shouldn't. That'd be an inefficient use of resources. Aren't there a ton of analyses about how free agent acquisition is by far the most inefficient way to acquire players? Even good ones. A little less risk with Harper because of his age, but that's offset by what he's apt to cost.

Rather get young guys who signed inexpensive but significant deals with teams whose dreams have been crushed. We can call it the vulture strategy.

 

[thewupk]

It shouldn't. That'd be an inefficient use of resources. Aren't there a ton of analyses about how free agent acquisition is by far the most inefficient way to acquire players? Even good ones. A little less risk with Harper because of his age, but that's offset by what he's apt to cost.

Rather get young guys who signed inexpensive but significant deals with teams whose dreams have been crushed. We can call it the vulture strategy.

Yeah something like a McCutchen from this past year. Good players with 1-2 years left on teams that need to rebuild. That should be the target unless something really worthwhile comes along.

 

[thethe]

True. But, they've been historically low for a decade, although it seems to be perking up. And it's probably multiple banks, spread the risk. Nevertheless, as I said, even a pretty significant debt load shouldn't dramatically impact what they have to spend.

Additionally, they've got something on the order of $38m on the books for '19 payroll, plus arbitration guys plus pre-arb guys...so what's that, $60m, tops? Seems to me that $50m to spend would be a payroll decrease. I'm sure there's something I must be missing, but shouldn't we be flush? I'd be for pushing that forward to try and lock in our own free agents later, kind of a deferred acquisition cost.

Typically in a large facility you have multiple syndicates whereby there are like you said multiple lenders but it will all be facilitated by one bank. However, the bank dictates the rate and the syndicates contribute to the total funds borrowed.

Either way the debt service costs will increase over time but I think the offset from additional gate will greatly outweigh that.

The recognition of salary on the books will either be straight lined evenly / recognized on a cash basis along with payments / or another method of depreciation which will reflect assumption based on productivity. This is an estimate and there is some flexibility as long as you can justify your assumptions.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

Typically in a large facility you have multiple syndicates whereby there are like you said multiple lenders but it will all be facilitated by one bank. However, the bank dictates the rate and the syndicates contribute to the total funds borrowed.

Either way the debt service costs will increase over time but I think the offset from additional gate will greatly outweigh that.

The recognition of salary on the books will either be straight lined evenly / recognized on a cash basis along with payments / or another method of depreciation which will reflect assumption based on productivity. This is an estimate and there is some flexibility as long as you can justify your assumptions.

Roger that

 

[GovClintonTyree]

Yeah something like a McCutchen from this past year. Good players with 1-2 years left on teams that need to rebuild. That should be the target unless something really worthwhile comes along.

Speaking of which - don't look now, but Chris Archer is getting beaten up pretty bad. 11.7 H/9 and 1.7 HR/9. 6.61 ERA. Maybe I didn't want him after all. Haven't looked at his velocity but I know his over reliance on his slider has always troubled me.

But, if a Chris Sale deal came along now, it might be time to start thinking hard about that kind of acquisition.

*Note: not saying there won't be regression on offense or that this might'nt still be premature. But is sure is nice to think about after three years in the wilderness.

 

[smootness]

Speaking of which - don't look now, but Chris Archer is getting beaten up pretty bad. 11.7 H/9 and 1.7 HR/9. 6.61 ERA. Maybe I didn't want him after all. Haven't looked at his velocity but I know his over reliance on his slider has always troubled me.

But, if a Chris Sale deal came along now, it might be time to start thinking hard about that kind of acquisition.

*Note: not saying there won't be regression on offense or that this might'nt still be premature. But is sure is nice to think about after three years in the wilderness.

Archer's velocity hasn't dropped. He is throwing his slider more than ever, but a lot of his issues stem from a .376 BABIP against.