6/16 GDT VS REDS: Nooner!

sturg33 said:
What's the % you need to be a net positive... wanna say 78%?
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I looked up an article from 2013 that the then current break even point was around 66%. In the 2000 steroid slugfest it was 69% so right now it's likely somewhere in the middle. That said it is team dependent based on the offensive ability of the club. With the Braves being devoid of power our break point is likely in the mid 60% range. The teams with huge homer ability generally sit in the low 70's.
 
Reds have a few really nice marketable pieces they could move at the deadline. I have to think that Bruce will be playing somewhere else soon. If you put their line-up with our pitching staff, you'd probably have a team that would be close to .500.
 
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Bats woke up a little in this series. I think the Reds are going to unload a lot of guys by the deadline and they might be miserable after August 1. I don't think the #1 pick is in the bag yet.
 
50PoundHead said:
Bats woke up a little in this series. I think the Reds are going to unload a lot of guys by the deadline and they might be miserable after August 1. I don't think the #1 pick is in the bag yet.
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Well, let's see:
We could reasonably expect improvement from Inciarte.
Jace has looked a lot better since coming back.
Mallex improving.
Improvement from Markakis wouldn't be crazy.
Aybar isn't as bad as he looked earlier on.
On top of just not having booming talent, almost everything was going wrong offensively early on. that's a bad combo. not at all saying they'll be a good offensive team, but they won't (or, shouldn't) be April-May bad.
 
yeezus said:
Well, let's see:
We could reasonably expect improvement from Inciarte.
Jace has looked a lot better since coming back.
Mallex improving.
Improvement from Markakis wouldn't be crazy.
Aybar isn't as bad as he looked earlier on.
On top of just not having booming talent, almost everything was going wrong offensively early on. that's a bad combo. not at all saying they'll be a good offensive team, but they won't (or, shouldn't) be April-May bad.
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I agree. nsacpi shared some stats in last night's game thread and our RISP hasn't been nearly as good this season as it was last year. Of all the players that I believe haven't performed up to what I expected this season, Jace Peterson is at the top of the list. I thought he'd be a solid 2B from Day 1 this year. He's not world-beater, but I thought he'd be a .700 OPS give or take a few points with good defense. Hasn't been the case at all.
 
50PoundHead said:
I agree. nsacpi shared some stats in last night's game thread and our RISP hasn't been nearly as good this season as it was last year. Of all the players that I believe haven't performed up to what I expected this season, Jace Peterson is at the top of the list. I thought he'd be a solid 2B from Day 1 this year. He's not world-beater, but I thought he'd be a .700 OPS give or take a few points with good defense. Hasn't been the case at all.
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I'm with you. I actually thought Jace would be pretty good. I was thinking a .265-.275 hitter with gap power, good walk skills and really good defense. I hope he still in, the guy has been very good since he got back.
 
50PoundHead said:
Bats woke up a little in this series. I think the Reds are going to unload a lot of guys by the deadline and they might be miserable after August 1. I don't think the #1 pick is in the bag yet.
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I do think we're likely to be better and they're likely to be worse, but I'm not sure if it'll be enough.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
I'm with you. I actually thought Jace would be pretty good. I was thinking a .265-.275 hitter with gap power, good walk skills and really good defense. I hope he still in, the guy has been very good since he got back.
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his OBP is pretty ridiculous.
 
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