young blood just knows how to hit
6/20: giants' game 1
- Thread starter msstate7
- Start date
young blood just knows how to hit
of course he is. a slightly lower launch angle and the dead baseball is the reason his numbers are worse than last season.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
We need more xBACON stats please.. with over easy xEGG stats.
msstate7
Well-known member
Do you trust this stat or not? You like it for Harris, but not will smith and newcomb. I really don't know enough about it, but I do remember enscheff saying this is the #1 stat to follow for pitchers
I mentioned this issue with Newcomb. And Will Smith has the same thing going on right now.
Ozuna has consistently underperformed his xwOBA over the entire Statcast era. It seems there is something negative about his offensive profile that isn't being captured by the xwOBA inputs.
Batted ball direction, poor spin rates or axes on his batted balls, something is causing his performance to not match the xwOBA inputs.
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msstate7
Well-known member
Looks like the 3 seasons ('19, '21, '22) he's really underperformed his xwoba, he had a really poor Babip. Could it be bad luck?
I read a few years ago that he tends to get less backspin and more top spin on his batted balls due to his swing. That’s why he’s been a consistent underperformer. More than the average number of long fly outs.
chop2chip
Well-known member
He’s basically a one pitch pitcher these days. The slider is very good and he has a high chase rate. I expect he will dominate bad lineups that are not as disciplined (like he has in June). I think he’s especially matchup dependent, which is fine for his current role. Any high leverage he can spare Minter from is a win until Matzek is back.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Sample size
chop2chip
Well-known member
xWOBA is great at contextualizing performance. It does the hard work of consolidating all those individual moments during where we say “he’s lucky that stayed in the ball park”, or “BABIP gods are unkind” etc. I think it’s slightly a misnomer to suggest that it’s a predictive stat only because a good prediction relies on a composite of a lot of things. You really need to dig into the “lot of things” if you want to understand.
Olson and Ozuna have the same xWOBA, but there little otherwise to suggest the two have comparable results or will have similar future performance. Olson has better plate discipline, he hits the ball harder, and his batted ball profile is much superior to Ozuna.
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chop2chip
Well-known member
Still curious what the plan is for Strider. There’s no way he should be allowed to continue a normal starting pitchers workload for the remainder of the year no matter how “easy” his delivery is on his arm.
I expect AA will need to step in at some point and take the decision out of Snitker’s hand. My guess is he’s waiting for Soroka to come back next month and they’ll transition Strider back to the bullpen.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I think a modified 6 man rotation with a stint on the 15 DL due to finger discomfort or something.
I read somewhere that teams are now telling hitters to drive down on the ball instead of up, due to the dead baseballs. That may explain it.
This is probably what will happen. They should be able to shuffle things around to give Strider and Soroka 5+ days of rest for the remainder of the season. Sort of like a platoon in the 5th SP slot.
One thing AA seems to have successfully brought over from LA is an excellent load management program for SPs. I have almost no worry the Braves will overwork any SP.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Have we ever seen a piggyback system like that utilized before. Seems like it might be a waste of two good resources to piggy back them like that