6/20: giants' game 1

[msstate7]

I'm excited to see Morton this week against 2 good teams. In June, he's...

14.5 k9, 2.0 bb9
3.24 FIP
1.96 xFIP

He might be back...

 

[thethe]

94 games left. Approximately 19 starts left for Strider (since he is up next). ~100 extra innings (assuming 5 1/3 per start) which would give him 144 on the year.

Last year he had ~96 innings. Assuming 20-30% increase that gets us to ~116-125 innings load that seems manageable.

I also want him in the playoffs so think we need to get his innings pitched number to ~100 by end of season (Delta of 56 from this point). This would seem about 11 more starts so ideally that is the runway I see for Strider left in the regular season.

 

[The Tariff King]

94 games left. Approximately 19 starts left for Strider (since he is up next). ~100 extra innings (assuming 5 1/3 per start) which would give him 144 on the year.

Last year he had ~96 innings. Assuming 20-30% increase that gets us to ~116-125 innings load that seems manageable.

I also want him in the playoffs so think we need to get his innings pitched number to ~100 by end of season (Delta of 56 from this point). This would seem about 11 more starts so ideally that is the runway I see for Strider left in the regular season.

Good luck expecting Snitker to manage his inning load. Dude consistently tries to extend strider an extra inning or two.

 

[thethe]

I think AA takes it out of his hands.

Two 3 week vacations would work well for Strider or as others have suggested skipping him in the rotation around 5 times could put him in a good spot come playoff time.

 

[MadduxFanII]

I read a few years ago that he tends to get less backspin and more top spin on his batted balls due to his swing. That’s why he’s been a consistent underperformer. More than the average number of long fly outs.

Back when we signed him the first time I posted something from a Cardinals blog making more or less this exact point. I don't think I can go back that far in my CC profile to find that post, but I definitely remember this point.

 

[Enscheff]

xWOBA is great at contextualizing performance. It does the hard work of consolidating all those individual moments during where we say “he’s lucky that stayed in the ball park”, or “BABIP gods are unkind” etc. I think it’s slightly a misnomer to suggest that it’s a predictive stat only because a good prediction relies on a composite of a lot of things. You really need to dig into the “lot of things” if you want to understand.

Olson and Ozuna have the same xWOBA, but there little otherwise to suggest the two have comparable results or will have similar future performance. Olson has better plate discipline, he hits the ball harder, and his batted ball profile is much superior to Ozuna.

There are definitely some holes in xwOBA:

1. It doesn't take batted ball direction into account. Extreme example: a player who always hits rockets directly at the LFer would have a huge xwOBA and terrible actual results.

2. It doesn't understand true talent inputs. Extreme example: a bloop hit has a high xwOBA based on exit velocity and launch angle, but getting bloop hits is not a reproducible skill.

3. It assumes an average athlete after contact. Extreme example: a batter who trips over 1st base every time would have an actual SLG value much less than his xSLG.

4. It has no idea about batted ball spin. Extreme example: a batter who imparts lots of side/top spin on hits could lose up to 20' on FBs/LDs and really lower his actual production.