9/14 GDT

msstate7 said:
1-run games are probably where having snit shows up most
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Overall the Braves are 23-27 in 1 run games. So it's not horrible. Using runs allowed/runs scored we should have 81 wins compared to the 76 we actually have. I think that sounds about right and Snit is the main reason the team is underperforming there.
 
thewupk said:
Overall the Braves are 23-27 in 1 run games. So it's not horrible. Using runs allowed/runs scored we should have 81 wins compared to the 76 we actually have. I think that sounds about right and Snit is the main reason the team is underperforming there.
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More likely injury, hit sequencing, half a season with half the lineup sucking.
 
Southcack77 said:
More likely injury, hit sequencing, half a season with half the lineup sucking.
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Of those things only sequencing would have you underperforming expected wins, right? Having players be bad or nonexistent is going to have you win fewer games, but also decrease your expected wins/run differential accordingly.

The eye test and logic would certainly suggest that Snit has played a large role in that delta, though there are plenty of other teams with similar deltas and its probably mostly luck. Same reason I don't give credit to Snit for the team outperforming their expected record in 2019, I'm not sure how much you can pin that on him in 2021 (even if it feels deserved).
 
Southcack77 said:
It's a pretty common occurrence, but I'll say that I can forgive it in the season much more than I will in the playoffs.

Saving an inning of bullpen work 100 times might be worthwhile.
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Maybe it would be if he actually saved the BP that inning. Last night he saved the BP 0 innings, and many other times it's been less than 1 full inning. I mention it in the game thread every single time Snit makes the exact same poor exchange.

Francoeur actually has this concept down. He regularly says, "if you're going to go batter to batter with the SP next inning, PH for him now". He is exactly right.

If Touki is performing such that giving up a 2 run HR on his second batter faced would result in pulling him, then he has no business batting the half inning prior. He is either deemed good enough to get 3+ more outs, or it's not worth punting the PA (especially with a runner in scoring position in a tie game in September in a division race). That calculus obviously depends on the leverage of the particular PA in question (up by 4 you let Touki hit, etc).

Keep in mind there was a runner on 3rd in a tie game when Touki was allowed to hit. That was a huge punt on the offensive side to allow a pitcher who was on a short leash to face the order a 3rd time. It's a decision Snit routinely screws up, and it has double bitten this team on offense and then on defense at least 10 times this season.

Meanwhile, Smyly has thrown like 2 innings this month, and mouth breathers still say pulling Touki early would exhaust the BP. Umm, no...it wouldn't.
 
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Enscheff said:
Maybe it would be if he actually saved the BP that inning. Last night he saved the BP 0 innings, and many other times it's been less than 1 full inning. I mention it in the game thread every single time Snit makes the exact same poor exchange.

Francoeur actually has this concept down. He regularly says, "if you're going to go batter to batter with the SP next inning, PH for him now". He is exactly right.

If Touki is performing such that giving up a 2 run HR on his second batter faced would result in pulling him, then he has no business batting the half inning prior. He is either deemed good enough to get 3+ more outs, or it's not worth punting the PA (especially with a runner in scoring position in a tie game in September in a division race). That calculus obviously depends on the leverage of the particular PA in question (up by 4 you let Touki hit, etc).

Keep in mind there was a runner on 3rd in a tie game when Touki was allowed to hit. That was a huge punt on the offensive side to allow a pitcher who was on a short leash to face the order a 3rd time. It's a decision Snit routinely screws up, and it has double bitten this team on offense and then on defense at least 10 times this season.

Meanwhile, Smyly has thrown like 2 innings this month, and mouth breathers still say pulling Touki early would exhaust the BP. Umm, no...it wouldn't.
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It does often work out that way (not getting through the next inning).

I basically agree with you.
 
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