Ozzie Swanson
Well-known member
I'm sure it probably won't translate to next year in any way but if we kept this same lineup (substituting Albies in for Jace at 2b) and spent all of our money on starting pitchers, how good could we be?
9/20 GDT mets part 2
- Thread starter msstate7
- Start date
We may be on to something here!!
I think you could potentially get 19 WAR out of that group with Albies at 2nd. It's fairly optimistic as it would assume no huge injury situations and no horrible slumps either. Given that 19 WAR would put the position players in the 6-8 range among NL teams so right at average or a tad higher. Which means you would need to get a lot of pitching help to get to contender status. That means majorly upgrading 2 or 3 of the rotation spots. 2 if you think you can get league avg production out of somebody on the farm and 3 if you feel the Wisler/Blair/etc guys are hot garbage. Also would need a few upgrades in the bullpen too. That would likely put the team a little above .500 status which means wild card contention.
Ozzie Swanson
Well-known member
I think our best bet is two big signings. One starting pitcher and one position player (either 3B or C) and one major trade for another starting pitcher. And that is only if we're committed to competing next year. I'd be completely fine with just being average next year and continuing to build talent and making a big splash in the '17 free agent period.
CrimsonCowboy
Moderator
bravesnumberone
Well-known member
Snit's more than earned himself the opportunity to be a finalist for the job going forward. Remarkable that it looks like we'll avoid 100 losses.
msstate7
Well-known member
lol
What's funny is that ensheffs comment about his sub 300 OBP the last couple of weeks gets blown out of the water with last nights game. Adonis has 1.8 fWAR in 183 career MLB games. That comes out to about 1.5 WAR over a full season.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
What's more funny is someone who criticizies SSS, then uses it to prove himself correct. I mean Adonis and Enders entire career are SSS for mlb
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
The Braves have all this extra money at exactly the wrong time unfortunately.
If only there were a couple FA pitchers worth spending money on. A 4 WAR pitcher plus a 2 WAR pitcher added to this rotation and coupled with this offense (assuming 3B and C are upgraded) would definitely be a playoff contender.
Trading for pitching talents like that would completely gut the farm and undo almost the entire rebuild.
I think a decent use of the money would be to get some overpriced vets who still hold some value. That way you aren't gutting the farm. But at 19 WAR for the position players and the bench the team would need around 21 WAR out of it's pitching to be in a good shape for a wild card spot. That puts the team at about 88 wins. Only 7 teams last year got to 21 pitching WAR so that's upper echelon.
I think an easier path to contention is further upgrading the offense and trying for league average pitching. Right now I predict 3 WAR for 3B and RF combined (with Nick and Adonis). Those seem like the easiest positions to get a decent upgrade out of.
I agree, which is why trades like Kemp, Mac and Shields would make so much sense. I would like to see them do the following:
Trade one of Mallex/Inciarte for a controllable 3+ WAR SP or 3B.
Trade for Mac using as little prospect assets as possible by taking on as much of his contract as possible.
Trade for Shields using as little prospect assets as possible by taking on as much of his contract as possible.
Sign a non-QO (if that is still a thing) SP like De La Rosa or 3B like Prado, whichever didn't come over in the Mallex/Inciarte trade.
Sign Rajai Davis to play in place CF or RF vs LHed starters in a semi-platoon with Markakis and Inciarte/Mallex.
I think that team could challenge for a WC if things broke right, and it could all be done without mortgaging any of the future.
And don't forget, a team in contention around the trade deadline can make an addition or two that really puts them over the top. It would be exciting to be on that end of trade rumors again.
I think what really sucks is that none of the young kids really did anything this year. Folty has done the best and I think he can be a 2 WAR pitcher next year but if Blair or Wisler had stepped up to even be back end serviceable that would of made things a lot easier.
I think you are 100% correct. Pure speculation on my part, but I also think settling for the Kemp trade was a direct result of the young pitchers failing to develop. I think if Wisler had turned into reliable 3, Folty showed he was a legit TOR option, and Newcomb showed he was ready to step into the rotation, we would have seen the Braves make much more aggressive and impactful moves to improve the club this offseason. I bet even Ces would have been legitimately in play for LF.
Instead, the competitive window has been pushed back at least one more year, and we get to see the "we are improving the MLB club" dog and pony show guys like Kemp represent.
I don't see it as a dog and pony show though. It is progression even if next year ends as a ~.500 season. It's a trend in the right direction.
Right, but instead of a small steps that didn't impact the future they would have been looking to make a much larger improvement.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
It's only a progression if it's sustainable and expandable. If Inciarte and Freeman both stay steady with this year's production (not out of the question) but both get more expensive over time, mostly resulting from increases for Inciarte, and Kemp, Markakis and Flowers decline over time in performance due to age (probably likely) while either maintaining expense or increasing in expense, then any short term gain (let's say a .500 record in 2017 - unlikely IMO and probably best case) from those five in value is quickly erased by decline in production/dollars. That means that to not just maintain the ~.500 status but to IMPROVE on it, the youngsters would not only have to supply adequately for their positions but make up for lack of production at LF, RF and C until those three are washed off the books (2018/2019). On a limited budget, whatever it is ultimately, it's unlikely that a declining Kemp/Markakis/Flowers(McCann?) could just be relegated to the bench for lack of performance and replaced with FA or trade acquired players who are veteran producers.
If they really wanted to compete in 2017 and build on that competitiveness moving forward they wouldn't have traded for Kemp and they wouldn't be hanging on to Markakis (and they wouldn't trade for a declining talent like McCann). If true competition was desired for 2017, the FO would have looked at the SP desert of the 2016-2017 class in 2015 and said, you know we really need to pick up a pitcher or two during FA between 2015-2016 that will likely be around and good in 2017. They had the payroll room to do that but didn't even kick the tires on any of those guys (not necessarily guys like Price, Greinke, Cueto), guys like Samardzija or other similar young arms who would solidify the rotation going into 2017. If they wanted to be competitive in 2017, they could have looked for trades for guys like Liriano from Pittsburgh, Santana, etc. but they didn't.
They know what FA has to offer which isn't much. I assume and hope that they aren't going to be willing to trade with significant pieces from the minor league arsenal for real ML help. They brought in Kemp, who, if anything, is more of a win today acquisition not a build today, next year and future years kind of acquisition. They don't have significant production help in the upper levels of the minor leagues. Yes Swanson helps but he's a certain type of player who's value is more as an overall good player not someone you expect to hit 30 HR, bat 3rd or 4th and carry the offense for extended periods. He's more of a 2 hitter. Albies is a 1 or 2. Inciarte is a 1 or 2. Mallex is a 1 or 2 or 8.
2017 is dog and pony show. They might get good enough to finish .500. But Kemp, Markais, Flowers even McCann should he come in are not part of the long term solution. To progress from .500 you have to have answers as to where that progress comes from.