AcuñaMania

Carp said:
I checked the numbers earlier and I'm too lazy to bring up everyone's numbers again on my phone. But the players we traded away collectively have more bWAR than J-Up and CJ combined since the trade. It's close, but nevertheless, it's true. I am not interested in residual trade value since we're talking about only the players involved in this deal. Surely the package we sent them could have been used in a separate trade also.

McLouth trade didn't "hurt" us per say, but it was a trade that was praised by most at the time that ended up being a big flop.
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The issue with what you're proposing is that the 4 guys we traded over many seasons were slightly better than Upton and Johnson, but that's not what happens with value. Are you the guy in fantasy football who offers 3 B players to get Tom Brady? THere's only so many roster spots in the world and that's an important consideration. So all those guys were not particularly likely ot get PT in Atlanta. Especially Spruill and Delgado.

McLouth trade was praised at the time because we traded not much and got a youngish cost controlled quality player. He was a flawed player and it bit us in the ass in the end, but it was praised for the right reasons. Sometimes you make a great trade even if it doesn't work out in the end.
 
Southcack77 said:
My god the braves have had some awful acquisitions over the years.

Reggie Sanders, McLouth, Uggla, Upton, Lowe.
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Lowe wasn't that bad, we got bit because we "needed'" to sign a great starter and Lowe would pick the Mets without that extra year. He was a massive overpay, but he wasn't a total bum like McLouth or Upton.
 
thewupk said:
We would still have that option this offsesaon (most likely) if it wasn't for Kemp
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I think Kemp has been better since coming back but Upton is the far superior option. Kemp isn't an everyday player anymore and that makes the acquisition a terrible one. Stat guys were right.
 
Southcack77 said:
My god the braves have had some awful acquisitions over the years.

Reggie Sanders, McLouth, Uggla, Upton, Lowe.
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Reaching all the way back to Reggie Sanders? Wow. Might as well start listing Nick Esasky, Rob Wickman, Chris Reitsma. It's been done, many times. It is such a dead horse that I can't believe anyone wastes his or her time on it.

But let's speak to revisionist history. The acquisition of Uggla wasn't the problem -- he hit 36 homers his first season as a Braves -- signing him to a long term deal was the epic fail.

Same with Lowe. 15-10, 16-12 his first two seasons, and he led the NL in starts two of his three seasons as a Braves.

B.J. Upton was an indefensible move, bidding against outselves.

McLouth seemed like a better deal at the time, but there was plenty of pro and con.

But in the context of his career, the Sanders trade is one we'd make again. Who knew playing close to his mother and hometown was a negative? He was 26-85-.282 at San Diego the year before.
 
rico43 said:
Reaching all the way back to Reggie Sanders? Wow. Might as well start listing Nick Esasky, Rob Wickman, Chris Reitsma. It's been done, many times. It is such a dead horse that I can't believe anyone wastes his or her time on it.

But let's speak to revisionist history. The acquisition of Uggla wasn't the problem -- he hit 36 homers his first season as a Braves -- signing him to a long term deal was the epic fail.
Same with Lowe. 15-10, 16-12 his first two seasons, and he led the NL in starts two of his three seasons as a Braves.
B.J. Upton was an indefensible move, bidding against outselves.
McLouth seemed like a better deal at the time, but there was plenty of pro and con.
But in the context of his career, the Sanders trade is one we'd make again. Who knew playing close to his mother and hometown was a negative? He was 26-85-.282 at San Diego the year before.
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Think I said earlier this week I have trouble separating the extension from the trade and I really dislike players like Uggla generally.

Also, Infante was pretty much as good or better than Uggla by WAR though I am the first to question the defensive portion, but IMO the Braves would have been better off keeping Infante and what turned out to be a useful reliever.

Also, I am complaining about their performance as Braves.

And Reggie Sanders was particularly hurtful for me because he was a good player I had every reason to be excited about being a Brave and he was so amazingly awful.
 
rico43 said:
Reaching all the way back to Reggie Sanders? Wow. Might as well start listing Nick Esasky, Rob Wickman, Chris Reitsma. It's been done, many times. It is such a dead horse that I can't believe anyone wastes his or her time on it.

But let's speak to revisionist history. The acquisition of Uggla wasn't the problem -- he hit 36 homers his first season as a Braves -- signing him to a long term deal was the epic fail.
Same with Lowe. 15-10, 16-12 his first two seasons, and he led the NL in starts two of his three seasons as a Braves.
B.J. Upton was an indefensible move, bidding against outselves.
McLouth seemed like a better deal at the time, but there was plenty of pro and con.
But in the context of his career, the Sanders trade is one we'd make again. Who knew playing close to his mother and hometown was a negative? He was 26-85-.282 at San Diego the year before.
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I'll withdraw Lowe from this list, though paying him 15m at that point in time was ridiculous and he was more like a fourth starter than what he was paid to do. But he wasn't as horrendous as the others.
 
We have run out of superlatives. We haven't seen a teenage bat dominate at the high level like this since Andruw Jones and Alex Rodriguez. That's not to say Acuna is as good as those players. It's just to say that he's doing something that's extremely rare and just as impressive.

Per rotoworld
 
Tapate50 said:
We have run out of superlatives. We haven't seen a teenage bat dominate at the high level like this since Andruw Jones and Alex Rodriguez. That's not to say those players are as good as Acuna. It's just to say that he's doing something that's extremely rare and just as impressive.

Per rotoworld
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Fixed that for them.
 
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The sky is the limit with Acuna. He does everything very well so I won't compare him to anybody but the year he's put in I wouldn't put anything past him at this point. He's an absolute stud. One of Kemp or Markakis has to go this offseason.
 
Too bad there are no stats for AJ's and ARod's BABIP in the minors.

We do know Acuna's is .411 in AAA, and if that was in the more realistic .300-.320 range he would be OPSing .850-.900. Still great, but not ARod/AJ.

Apply the standard 20% haircut to those numbers when translating to the MLB level and he would produce a ~.700 OPS right now with a .320 BABIP. Davenport is even more pessimistic, pegging him at .650 next year. When all the projections come out this offseason, folks are going to be very upset with what they say about Acuna.

I'm afraid folks are going to be supremely disappointed with the actual production Acuna provides in 2018. There are going to be constant complaints of the FO rushing another top position player, when in reality he will be producing exactly as expected.
 
Those projections would be too pessimistic and ignore the growth Acuna is showing. I would peg him for an OPS between .750 and .800.
 
atl717 said:
Those projections would be too pessimistic and ignore the growth Acuna is showing. I would peg him for an OPS between .750 and .800.
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Based off what? Gut feelings?

What about the growth Ablies showed? Davenport projected him at .720 this year, and he is currently sitting at .707.

Folks are not grasping just how crazy a .411 BABIP really is.
 
Enscheff said:
Too bad there are no stats for AJ's and ARod's BABIP in the minors.

We do know Acuna's is .411 in AAA, and if that was in the more realistic .300-.320 range he would be OPSing .850-.900. Still great, but not ARod/AJ.

Apply the standard 20% haircut to those numbers when translating to the MLB level and he would produce a ~.700 OPS right now with a .320 BABIP. Davenport is even more pessimistic, pegging him at .650 next year. When all the projections come out this offseason, folks are going to be very upset with what they say about Acuna.

I'm afraid folks are going to be supremely disappointed with the actual production Acuna provides in 2018. There are going to be constant complaints of the FO rushing another top position player, when in reality he will be producing exactly as expected.
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Some players have the ability to sustain a very high BABIP in the minors. Some guys sustain a high BABIP in the majors as well. Projecting Acuna for a .300-.320 BABIP is obviously more realistic than him posting a .400+ BABIP in the majors, as he's obviously not going to do that. But sustaining a high BABIP in the minors is a sign the player may be able to do the same in the majors. Freeman has sustained a .350+ BABIP for most of his major league career. His BABIP in the minors? .340+ in his 3 longest stops. Trout sustained a .390+ BABIP through the minors for the most part. His BABIP in the majors? .350-.380.

I don't think BABIP analysis in the minors does a whole lot of good. Sure, of course Acuna wouldn't walk in and put up the same kind of numbers in the majors, he can't sustain a .400+ BABIP in the majors. But could he sustain something close to that in the minors? Perhaps. And is it a sign that he might be able to sustain a high BABIP in the majors? Absolutely. Docking him down to around .300 seems arbitrary and pointless.
 
And yes, we can find Andruw's minor-league BABIP.

1995: 149 H; 25 HR; 537 AB; 122 K; 9 SF | BABIP = .356
1996: 151 H; 34 HR; 445 AB; 97 K; 2 SF | BABIP = .370

ARod's BABIP in 1994: 133 H; 21 HR; 426 AB; 82 K; 3 SF = .344
 
smootness said:
And yes, we can find Andruw's minor-league BABIP.

1995: 149 H; 25 HR; 537 AB; 122 K; 9 SF | BABIP = .356

1996: 151 H; 34 HR; 445 AB; 97 K; 2 SF | BABIP = .370

ARod's BABIP in 1994: 133 H; 21 HR; 426 AB; 82 K; 3 SF = .344
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So they posted 1.000+ OPS values with reasonable BABIP values. Go ahead and scale Acuna's AAA numbers down to those BABIPs. Actually don't bother, I've already told you what the results would be.

Then take a look at the career MLB marks for ARod and AJ.

Again, folks are not quite grasping just how insane a .411 mark is. It is 40 points higher than the highest value you just cited. If AJ had a .411 he would have had an OPS nearing 1.200.
 
Enscheff said:
So they posted 1.000+ OPS values with reasonable BABIP values. Go ahead and scale Acuna's AAA numbers down to those BABIPs. Actually don't bother, I've already told you what the results would be.

Then take a look at the career MLB marks for ARod and AJ.

Again, folks are not quite grasping just how insane a .411 mark is. It is 40 points higher than the highest value you just cited. If AJ had a .411 he would have had an OPS nearing 1.200.
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Why would I scale his BABIP down to theirs? Neither one of them showed the ability to sustain high BABIP's in the majors. Others players have. Acuna may be able to sustain a significantly higher BABIP than either of them.

You are not grasping that minors =/= majors. Most players are able to sustain a higher BABIP in the minors than in the majors. For some players, like Andruw and ARod, they have basically normal BABIP's in the majors and higher BABIP's in the minors. For others, they have high BABIP's in the minors and extremely high BABIP's in the minors.

You're saying Acuna's current BABIP means he's clearly receiving some good luck and that his current minor-league numbers are at least somewhat of a mirage. I'm saying it's possible he is doing about what he should be doing, he is just the kind of player who can sustain a very high BABIP, which in the minors is even higher.

A .411 BABIP in the majors is stupid and obviously not going to last. A .411 BABIP in the minors is probably at least slightly higher than normal but still within the realm of possibility.
 
smootness said:
Why would I scale his BABIP down to theirs? Neither one of them showed the ability to sustain high BABIP's in the majors. Others players have. Acuna may be able to sustain a significantly higher BABIP than either of them.

You are not grasping that minors =/= majors. Most players are able to sustain a higher BABIP in the minors than in the majors. For some players, like Andruw and ARod, they have basically normal BABIP's in the majors and higher BABIP's in the minors. For others, they have high BABIP's in the minors and extremely high BABIP's in the minors.

You're saying Acuna's current BABIP means he's clearly receiving some good luck and that his current minor-league numbers are at least somewhat of a mirage. I'm saying it's possible he is doing about what he should be doing, he is just the kind of player who can sustain a very high BABIP, which in the minors is even higher.

A .411 BABIP in the majors is stupid and obviously not going to last. A .411 BABIP in the minors is probably at least slightly higher than normal but still within the realm of possibility.
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I love Acuna, but .411 is not within the realm of possibility for any substantial sample size.
 
smootness said:
Why would I scale his BABIP down to theirs? Neither one of them showed the ability to sustain high BABIP's in the majors. Others players have. Acuna may be able to sustain a significantly higher BABIP than either of them.

You are not grasping that minors =/= majors. Most players are able to sustain a higher BABIP in the minors than in the majors. For some players, like Andruw and ARod, they have basically normal BABIP's in the majors and higher BABIP's in the minors. For others, they have high BABIP's in the minors and extremely high BABIP's in the minors.

You're saying Acuna's current BABIP means he's clearly receiving some good luck and that his current minor-league numbers are at least somewhat of a mirage. I'm saying it's possible he is doing about what he should be doing, he is just the kind of player who can sustain a very high BABIP, which in the minors is even higher.

A .411 BABIP in the majors is stupid and obviously not going to last. A .411 BABIP in the minors is probably at least slightly higher than normal but still within the realm of possibility.
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LOL ok bud. You somehow think a single season of .411 BABIP makes it "sustainable at the minor league level for Acuna", and can't seem to grasp just how insanely lucky he has been this year...verging on Lord BABIP luck. You seem to think Acuna and his batted ball profile will be able to sustain a BABIP only achievable by guys with a much more optimal batted ball profile, as I showed for someone like Jeter.

I suppose we will see how it all shakes out once Acuna is promoted to Atlanta. Maybe you're right, and I'm wrong...not likely if history is any indication...but maybe.
 
I will normally happily take analytics into equation, but Acuna is a case in which analytics like Davenport need to be trashed completely for now. It's based off of last year's sample size in Rome before Acuna's approach change and you can really tell when looking at the power numbers.

And I am not saying that Ronald Acuna is going to pull a Mike Trout, but let me wait and see what the analytics come up from while including THIS year, not just previous years before he changed his approach to allow for more pop.

Steamer actually has a good example of what I think Acuna would do now in the major leagues, maybe a few more walks, but it's much better than what Davenport has, call me back when they've been updated and maybe it'll be much more reasonable.
 
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