AcuñaMania

GeorgiaGirl said:
I will normally happily take analytics into equation, but Acuna is a case in which analytics like Davenport need to be trashed completely for now. It's based off of last year's sample size in Rome before Acuna's approach change and you can really tell when looking at the power numbers.

And I am not saying that Ronald Acuna is going to pull a Mike Trout, but let me wait and see what the analytics come up from while including THIS year, not just previous years before he changed his approach to allow for more pop.

Steamer actually has a good example of what I think Acuna would do now in the major leagues, maybe a few more walks, but it's much better than what Davenport has, call me back when they've been updated and maybe it'll be much more reasonable.
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This season is fully included.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
In Davenport? Uh no it ain't. I read somewhere else that said Davenport is only based on last year.
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If that's true then I would still stand by my ~.700 OPS prediction for this year and ~.750 OPS prediction for 2018.

However, the data is pulled daily, so it would be odd not to also update the projections with every data grab.
 
Enscheff said:
If that's true then I would still stand by my ~.700 OPS prediction for this year and ~.750 OPS prediction for 2018.

However, the data is pulled daily, so it would be odd not to also update the projections with every data grab.
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It hasn't been. It's the exact same as it was when I looked a while back...which is why Davenport is an offseason update with prospects imho analytical wise. If you want to look at analytics with the kids...steamer is better, JMO.
 
And let me clarify. I'm not saying .411 is his precise real line, I'm sure it's at least a little high right now. But is something like .370-.380 sustainable at that level? Yes. Dropping it to .300-.320 is as dumb as assuming he could do this in the majors right now.
 
A players minor league BABIP virtually has no bearing on what they will end up doing in the majors so trying to use that is meaningless. Speed and batted ball profile (line drive %, etc) is what's going to determine that. As far as I know we don't really have a way to accurately measure a players batted ball profile in the minors so we only have speed. I think it's realistic (not homerish) to predict a 300-320 BABIP based on Acuna's speed and then we can adjust from there once we start getting data on his hitting profile.
 
smootness said:
Do you know this to be true? That doesn't seem to make sense.
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So much randomness in the minors. Inferior umps, defenses, and playing fields. Certain people said the same thing about mallex when he had a 400 babip in the minors when he came over and he's at 330 so far in the majors. It's just dumb to predict a babip that high without having data on his better ball profile.
 
thewupk said:
So much randomness in the minors. Inferior umps, defenses, and playing fields. Certain people said the same thing about mallex when he had a 400 babip in the minors when he came over and he's at 330 so far in the majors. It's just dumb to predict a babip that high without having data on his better ball profile.
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I hear what you are saying, but Mallex is no Acuna!
 
Comparing him to Jones/Trout is really silly anyway. He's not in that class. Personally, I've always comped him to Starling Marte with a little more power. He could be better than that, but I think that's his most realistic outcome.
 
Nobody knew Trout would he Trout when he was in the minors same as anybody else. It'll be a lot of fun to see just how good Acuna is when he comes up. Just enjoy that we have the best prospect in baseball instead of bitching about what he isn't.
 
projecting prospects to the majors is a cap shoot. Acuna could OPS over 1.000 next year then never be above .800 for the rest of his career. There are so many human variables that go into these things. Projections can't account for a teammate giving good advice to a rookie or any number of negative personality traits that can affect a career. Andruw was mashing everywhere in the minors and it took him a while to hit in the majors.

Trout was highly though of as a prospect but no projection system will ever predict a rookie to be Trout. If a projection system says they will have a .80O OPS that is about as good as you will ever see outside of some 28 year old 1b/DH who spends several years mashing at AAA.
 
atl717 said:
Comparing him to Jones/Trout is really silly anyway. He's not in that class. Personally, I've always comped him to Starling Marte with a little more power. He could be better than that, but I think that's his most realistic outcome.
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Well, he's certainly a heck of a lot better prospect than Starling ever was. Not to mention, his minor league stats were nothing compared to Acuna's, even when he was in AAA at the age of 23. Terrible comparison.
 
thewupk said:
So much randomness in the minors. Inferior umps, defenses, and playing fields. Certain people said the same thing about mallex when he had a 400 babip in the minors when he came over and he's at 330 so far in the majors. It's just dumb to predict a babip that high without having data on his better ball profile.
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And the wide range of ability on the opposition, especially in the lower minors.
 
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