Without a doubt. And it's completely baffling that all these posters want to fill up our pitching staff with pitchers from outside when we have to find spots for Gohara, Soroka, and Allard to pitch at the major league level next season some time, and that's not even going into the pitchers that will need spots in 2019. If we can't find a couple #2 starter/borderline #1 types, a #3 starter, and a couple back of the rotation guys (we seem to have those already with Newcomb and Sims) with all the pitching we've stockpiled then something is severely wrong and the rebuild completely failed.
Another focus on pitching in the offseason...This one may be real though
- Thread starter Chico
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Without a doubt. And it's completely baffling that all these posters want to fill up our pitching staff with pitchers from outside when we have to find spots for Gohara, Soroka, and Allard to pitch at the major league level next season some time, and that's not even going into the pitchers that will need spots in 2019. If we can't find a couple #2 starter/borderline #1 types, a #3 starter, and a couple back of the rotation guys (we seem to have those already with Newcomb and Sims) with all the pitching we've stockpiled then something is severely wrong and the rebuild completely failed.
Southcack77
Well-known member
rebuild is a failure if the Braves don't have a solid base of talent that allows them to be a good baseball team for a long while.
The number of pitching prospects produced over a short period is not criteria.
They need to come up with three good pitching prospects to build on. I feel they will need to acquire one or two from outside. If the org is willing to wait, I think they will get them internally by 2020 hopefully. If they are not patient then kick starting it may be necessary.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
What I would like to see is an emphasis on defense and the bullpen. Best thing we can do for these young starters is to field a good defense behind them and provide a steady pen so they are not over worked early in their careers. Ender is great in center. Acuna should be a plus defender in RF. Freeman isnt a rangy 1B but plus in all other areas of defense at 1B. Albies/Swanson are plus defenders up the middle. Ruiz/Camargo at 3B would be plus defense. We have Flowers for another year and he is plus behind the plate. Odds are whatever backup we get will be a good defender too. Just leaves LF for Kemp/Markakis/Adams. I dont think there is anything we can do to get around having a defensive black hole in LF. Kemp has some value as a lefty masher and I like having Adams as a bench player. I would platoon them in LF. Adams could probably improve his defense with an offseason of work. Cant get worse. I would hold Acuna down for 2 months to delay FA and let Markakis start in RF for those 2 months then rotate outfielders if injuries dont solve that logjam for us.
For the pen I would try to bring in one good free agent. Paying for non closers is a cardinal sin in my opinion. I would have loved to have traded for Madson and Doolittle. They arent financially cheap but they would have bridged the gap to the prospects. Madson was signed through 2018 and Doolittle through 2018 with a relatively cheap option for 2019. I wholeheartidly think the Braves intend to go after Kimbrel when he is a free agent after the 2018 season. That Johnson was signed to the same offseason is not a coincidence.
For the pen I would try to bring in one good free agent. Paying for non closers is a cardinal sin in my opinion. I would have loved to have traded for Madson and Doolittle. They arent financially cheap but they would have bridged the gap to the prospects. Madson was signed through 2018 and Doolittle through 2018 with a relatively cheap option for 2019. I wholeheartidly think the Braves intend to go after Kimbrel when he is a free agent after the 2018 season. That Johnson was signed to the same offseason is not a coincidence.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I don't see us as having a surplus of pitching at the major league level. I'd like to see this arrangement at the start of 2018:
Majors: Cobb (or some similar pitcher), Dickey, Teheran, Folty, Newcomb
AAA: Fried, Sims, Gohara, Soroka, Allard
Of these, Dickey will be gone by 2019. I view Fried, Sims and Newcomb as having less than a 50% chance each of developing into solid mid-rotation major league starters. Lets call them Group 1. I think with some luck maybe 1 out of group 1 makes it.
I view Folty and Allard as having about a 50% chance of developing into solid mid-rotation major league starters. Let's call this Group 2.
Gohara, Wright and Soroka all have over 50% chance of developing. I think we can get 2 out of this Group. Call them Group 3.
So by 2020 our rotation might look like this: One of Teheran/Cobb (the other will get hurt or wash out or get traded), one of Group 1, one of Group 2, 2 of Group 3.
There is no surplus. 2018 and 2019 will be used to sort out which ones are the keepers and which ones get shuffled off to the pen. And of course two or three will get injured.
If you don't mind my asking, what makes you believe that Gohara has a greater chance of success than Allard?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
i did a comparison of Gohara and Newcomb in another thread.
Allard is about a year younger than Gohara. Let's compare their AA numbers this year keeping in mind their age difference.
Allard had a strikeout rate of 7.8 and walk rate of 2.8.
Gohara has a strikeout rate of 10.3 and walk rate of 3.1.
I focus on walk and strikeout rates because those are more independent of luck, defense, ballpark than other statistics. They are the things most under the control of the pitcher.
Moreover, I believe the difference between the strikeout and walk rates is the single best statistic for evaluating a pitcher. For Gohara that number in AA was 7.2. For Allard, it was 5.0.
Now as I said Allard is a year younger and you have to take that into account. Normal progression would allow him to bump up that strikeout minus walk rate number next year if he was held back in AA. But probably not all the way to Gohara's number.
That's the purely statistical side of it. The other part is what scouts and others report about their stuff. Gohara throws in the high 90s. Allard in the low 90s. That's a big difference. Allard might have an edge in the off-speed stuff but likely not enough to fully offset Gohara's superior fastball.
Finally, after Gohara was promoted to AAA he put up a strikeout rate of 12.2 and walk rate of 4.1 in 7 starts. So his differential rate moved up to 8.1 after his promotion. Kind of like an intensifying hurricane to use a tasteless analogy.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Just to add Soroka to the comparison. He pitched in AA at 19 most of this year. Same age as Allard. Strikeout rate of 7.2 and walk rate of 2.1 for a differential of 5.1. Very slightly better than Allard. But there are some secondary factors that lead me to think his chances are better than Allard. One is he is more a groundball pitcher. As I said in the previous post, I think the difference in strikeout versus walk rate is the single most important indicator for a pitcher. But that doesn't mean other indicators are not of some importance. I think Soroka's groundball tendencies are worth considering. Gohara is also more of a groundball pitcher than Allard btw. Finally, Soroka has been more of a workhorse than Allard so far in their minor league careers. Better health and bigger frame.
For me Soroka and Gohara are 1a and 1b in our minor league system among starting pitching prospects. Next I would put Wright. And fourth Allard. Doesn't mean I don't like Allard. Just like the others a little more.
For me Soroka and Gohara are 1a and 1b in our minor league system among starting pitching prospects. Next I would put Wright. And fourth Allard. Doesn't mean I don't like Allard. Just like the others a little more.
I agree 100% about what you are figuring about the pitchers likelihood to make it, but you are ignoring two factors here I think.
One is you aren't including Anderson, Wilson, or Wentz in the discussion at all, and with as aggressive as the Braves have been with promotions at least one if not all of them will be ready by late 2019.
The second and most important thing to me is if 3 of 5 spots are filled with Folty, Julio, and Cobb for the next couple years then guys like Allard, Gohara, Soroka, and Fried won't have spots to show what they have, and will be rushed all to hell when they do get called up due top the lack of room. The Braves FO has shown some troubling signs when it comes to moving prospects up and down and jerking them around a bit the last two years, and I see that being a major concern if we have the starting rotation filled with vets. As much as I figured Julio would start to slow down a bit as a pitcher and figured he'd have peak value last season and this past offseason, another concern for me with keeping him was creating a logjam in the starting rotation.
Obviously half of them won't make it at least given normal attrition, but you don't know which until you get them pitching in the majors.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
You raise some good points, which I have given some thought to.
With respect to Anderson, Wilson and Wentz I think one of them will probably make it. They are fairly far away. And probably will come in when the contracts of Teheran/Cobb expire in the scenario I sketched above.
With respect to your second point, I think injuries/other forms of attrition will create opportunities for just about all of the relevant starting pitchers over the course of 2018 and 2019. This year has been very unusual in the sense that our starting pitching (with the exception of Colon's implosion) has basically held up intact the whole year. Dickey, Teheran and Folty have pretty much made all their starts. Newcomb came in for Colon. And Sims for Garcia after he was traded. Colon was on the DL briefly. This kind of health is very unusual.
In a normal year you can expect 8 or 9 starting pitchers to make 10 or more starts. I think all of the candidates for the rotation who remain healthy and effective will be given an extended opportunity to pitch in the major league rotation over the course of 2018-2019. We also have to keep in mind that AAA is a hurdle that some guys won't clear (see Aaron Blair for a recent example).
If we have a small surplus of starting pitching after 2019, which I'm hoping for, we can trade a starting pitcher to bolster the lineup. We're more likely to have that surplus if we sign someone like Cobb (ideally to a 3 year deal with 4th year option). I know on average those kinds of deals do not work out to the club's advantage. But I think we have the funds to dabble and take some limited risks this off-season. Signing someone like Cobb strikes me as the best use of that flexibility.
See, Blair is a perfect example of what I'm worried about. He got 3 starts in AAA, got called up, only got 6 starts in the majors, got sent down, got one start in the minors, got called up, got another 6 starts and then got sent down again. Blair may have never made it, and likely won't with his pitching arsenal, but he was handled like garbage. It's impossible for a young pitcher who is struggling to find his footing when he is being yoyoed around all over the place. And if we have 4 young pitchers competing for 2 spots I can see that happening again.
We aren't going to be a playoff team next season unless something miraculous happens, so I just don't see the point in adding someone like Cobb when we won't even be wildcard capable until 2019 at the earliest. I usually consider announcer discussions to be fluff, but Glavine and Smoltz have both harped on the fact teams don't let pitchers struggle lately and how weird that is, and I happen to agree with them a bunch here. When we aren't that great to begin with is the best time to let these young pitchers get hammered and see how they respond, not yank them around at the first sign of struggle.
And I think you are underestimating when the Wilson/Anderson/Wentz trio will be ready. Given the Braves reluctance so far to put the top pitching prospects in high A, I can easily see all three starting 2018 in AA, which will put them ready for the majors in late 2019.
MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
Re: the subject of the thread, Carson Fulmer is visiting Dr. Andrews, and presumably not for tea. He's probably out as an option this off-season.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Blair got the yoyo treatment due to a lack of major league ready starting pitching depth in 2016. From that I would infer having pitching depth is a good thing and will allow guys who need seasoning in AAA to get it. The pitching we picked up last off-season allowed for a better development path for Newcomb and Sims.
Agreed on that, but there is a big difference between guys on 1 year deals compared to guys on 3-4 year deals like Cobb as far as that goes. Guys on 3-4 year deals aren't able to be pushed out of the way as soon as the prospect shows he's ready, or at least not easily.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Dickey will be on a 1 year.
And in a scenario where Newcomb is still walking 5 per nine and Gohara or Soroka is killing it in AAA, I think you will see a switch made. As it should be made. By then Newcomb will have had a tryout of over 20 starts. If he isn't getting better a switch to the pen or a period in AAA to work on the change would make sense.
msstate7
Well-known member
Michael? Carson getting called up by white sox
Southcack77
Well-known member
I'm not particularly concerned if prospects don't have audition slots because the braves have competent pitching in the majors.
They braves can just be less aggressive with promotions if that is the case. Think of all the extra service time control and the return to normalcy in promotions that you've cried out for.
They braves can just be less aggressive with promotions if that is the case. Think of all the extra service time control and the return to normalcy in promotions that you've cried out for.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Sure. If they are good things are great. If they are bad there is the audition slot. More likely to get a solid major league pitcher out of acquiring a solid pitcher. It's not all going to be internal.
I have zero issues with one year deals or one year with an option like Dickey, my issue was with long term signings like Cobb. He will be a 3-4 year commitment.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
There is some risk to signing someone like Cobb. No doubt. There is risk with one-year guys like Colon too. Different kinds of risk-reward.
MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
Carson, Michael, Phillip, Brad...how am I supposed to keep everyone straight?