nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
On the last day of April, our record stands at 10 wins and 11 loses. Compared with most projections, this is a little better than expected. Let's take a look a who has outperformed expectations and who has underperformed so far.
1) I'll start with our star players, Freeman and Simmons. Both came into 2015 after 2014 seasons that were a bit below their prior benchmarks. I have previously made the point that a reasonable 2015 projection for those two would be something between their 2013 and 2014 seasons. Simmons so far is closer to his 2013 offensive numbers, with a .693 OPS (versus .617 in 2014 and .692 in 2013). His defensive metrics are also more along the lines of his better numbers from 2013. Freeman's offensive numbers are also closer to his 2013 numbers, with a .883 OPS so far this year (.897 in 2013 and .847 in 2014). Imo, these two are performing pretty close to expectations. It is nice to see some early confirmation that 2014 were off-years for both.
2) Two off-season signings have significantly outperformed projections. Pierzynski is on a pace for a 5.5 WAR season, which would be his career best by a large margin. Obviously some regression (make that a lot of regression) is coming here, with the .372 BABIP being one indication. However, AJ has also put up a very impressive 3.8% strikeout rate so far, so not all of his great start is smoke and mirrors. Markakis has put up an .822 OPS so far, about a hundred points above projections. A .391 BABIP has helped, and points to some significant regression. His walk rate so far is 15.9%, which would be a career high.
4) Our veteran platoons in left (Gomes and KJ) and third (Callaspo and CJ) have been palatable. As with Freeman and Simmons, I thought CJ would rebound to something between his 2013 and 2014 offensive numbers. So far his has put up a .721 OPS (versus .653 in 2014 and .816 in 2013). Collectively, these four players are matching expectations.
5) Jace Peterson's .584 OPS so far is slightly below what the projection systems had for him at the start of the season. I'm less taken by Peterson than others around here but think he will improve slightly on his April numbers going forward.
6) Center continues to be our most problematic position. Here regression implies an improved performance going forward from Maybin (.167 BABIP) and Young (.213 BABIP). We have some options on the farm (Cunningham, Perez, Smith, Lipka) so one way or another we should see better productivity out of center during the rest of the season.
To summarize the state of play among position players: Regression is likely reduce the production we get in right and at catcher, but should increase our production out of center.
Among starting pitchers, Teheran has underperformed a lot, Wood a bit, and Miller has been about as expected. I'm talking here about FIP relative to projected FIP. Miller has benefited from a .219 BABIP and Wood has been hurt by a .341 BABIP.
As for the other two rotation spots and the pen, I think the inconsistency and generally low production is about what we should have expected and that more of the same is likely for the rest of the season. I'm more positive on Cahill than most around here and think he should be given another 4-5 starts.
Assuming that Teheran isn't carrying an injury that will affect him the rest of the year, I think we are likely to get a bit more from our pitching going forward, which will about offset the regression likely to occur on the offensive side.
Overall our record in April slightly flatters relative to our underlying talent. Our run differential so far is -5. Brewers and Phillies are at -47 and -40, so things could be worse.
1) I'll start with our star players, Freeman and Simmons. Both came into 2015 after 2014 seasons that were a bit below their prior benchmarks. I have previously made the point that a reasonable 2015 projection for those two would be something between their 2013 and 2014 seasons. Simmons so far is closer to his 2013 offensive numbers, with a .693 OPS (versus .617 in 2014 and .692 in 2013). His defensive metrics are also more along the lines of his better numbers from 2013. Freeman's offensive numbers are also closer to his 2013 numbers, with a .883 OPS so far this year (.897 in 2013 and .847 in 2014). Imo, these two are performing pretty close to expectations. It is nice to see some early confirmation that 2014 were off-years for both.
2) Two off-season signings have significantly outperformed projections. Pierzynski is on a pace for a 5.5 WAR season, which would be his career best by a large margin. Obviously some regression (make that a lot of regression) is coming here, with the .372 BABIP being one indication. However, AJ has also put up a very impressive 3.8% strikeout rate so far, so not all of his great start is smoke and mirrors. Markakis has put up an .822 OPS so far, about a hundred points above projections. A .391 BABIP has helped, and points to some significant regression. His walk rate so far is 15.9%, which would be a career high.
4) Our veteran platoons in left (Gomes and KJ) and third (Callaspo and CJ) have been palatable. As with Freeman and Simmons, I thought CJ would rebound to something between his 2013 and 2014 offensive numbers. So far his has put up a .721 OPS (versus .653 in 2014 and .816 in 2013). Collectively, these four players are matching expectations.
5) Jace Peterson's .584 OPS so far is slightly below what the projection systems had for him at the start of the season. I'm less taken by Peterson than others around here but think he will improve slightly on his April numbers going forward.
6) Center continues to be our most problematic position. Here regression implies an improved performance going forward from Maybin (.167 BABIP) and Young (.213 BABIP). We have some options on the farm (Cunningham, Perez, Smith, Lipka) so one way or another we should see better productivity out of center during the rest of the season.
To summarize the state of play among position players: Regression is likely reduce the production we get in right and at catcher, but should increase our production out of center.
Among starting pitchers, Teheran has underperformed a lot, Wood a bit, and Miller has been about as expected. I'm talking here about FIP relative to projected FIP. Miller has benefited from a .219 BABIP and Wood has been hurt by a .341 BABIP.
As for the other two rotation spots and the pen, I think the inconsistency and generally low production is about what we should have expected and that more of the same is likely for the rest of the season. I'm more positive on Cahill than most around here and think he should be given another 4-5 starts.
Assuming that Teheran isn't carrying an injury that will affect him the rest of the year, I think we are likely to get a bit more from our pitching going forward, which will about offset the regression likely to occur on the offensive side.
Overall our record in April slightly flatters relative to our underlying talent. Our run differential so far is -5. Brewers and Phillies are at -47 and -40, so things could be worse.
