Arcia to IL

I'm not as big an analytics guy as most here, but I do find it funny that they're the gospel... well, until we don't like what they say.

When the braves need to move on, they will. They're decimated by injuries, and yet, they're on pace to win 112 games. I think AA knows what he's doing. Last year, I threw a year long temper tantrum over losing FF, but we still won the division. I vowed to chill this season, and I have.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
That is probably small sample noise.

I think the main point is you have to really weed through the stats to find ones to cherry pick to make him look average at best. Many others make him look like the dog **** he is.
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Yeah, I"m ready for him to go at this point. Unless he just starts hitting at 2020 levels just cut bait. I could care less if he's another 90 wRC+ season for LF/DH. I'd rather roll rotate Murphy, d'Arnaud, and Grissom through DH.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
That is probably small sample noise.

I think the main point is you have to really weed through the stats to find ones to cherry pick to make him look average at best. Many others make him look like the dog **** he is.
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You don't have to weed through anything. He has put 23 balls in play...because we are talking about a meaningless sample size. So you can literally look at the results on all 23 balls here:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/stat...ent_estimated_slg_using_speedangle=on#results

That's the xSLG on every ball he's put into play. #3-#7 on that list had xSLG of .719+, and all 4 were outs. The most egregious was a 106 mph missile with a 36 degree launch angle that should have resulted a SLG of 2.920 and a BA of .743, but was instead an out.

So again, if those 4 outs he smashed resulted in extra base hits instead, we wouldn't even be having this discussion. The fact 4 unlucky PAs can tank his numbers so drastically should tell everyone all they need to know about the sample size we are dealing with.
 
Super said:
Doesn’t Ozuna consistently rock a xwOBA above his actual too?
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There does seem to be something about Ozuna that makes him underperform his xwOBA consistently. I bet there is an analyst or 2 in the Braves FO tortured by this unsolved mystery.
 
CyYoung31 said:
True, but then they dumped Gausman. They also continually let Snitker run amok with terrible decisions. So, they’ve shown they aren’t always prone to doing the analytically minded thing, for whatever reason.
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I still think something odd happened with Gausman outside of purely baseball. Dumping him like that made no sense, and I said as much at the time.
 
I read something years ago that his swing creates more top spin than back spin and fewer balls leave the park.
 
msstate7 said:
I'm not as big an analytics guy as most here, but I do find it funny that they're the gospel... well, until we don't like what they say.

When the braves need to move on, they will. They're decimated by injuries, and yet, they're on pace to win 112 games. I think AA knows what he's doing. Last year, I threw a year long temper tantrum over losing FF, but we still won the division. I vowed to chill this season, and I have.
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I've noticed. Interesting..and refreshing...lol. I kid.

Honestly not worried about the big team. I've gone to a milb game so far and will be doing that once a week if they are home between Rome and Augusta. I'll get around to my unofficial thoughts/views eventually. For now... I'll enjoy the musings of the board.
 
Enscheff said:
You don't have to weed through anything. He has put 23 balls in play...because we are talking about a meaningless sample size. So you can literally look at the results on all 23 balls here:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/stat...ent_estimated_slg_using_speedangle=on#results

That's the xSLG on every ball he's put into play. #3-#7 on that list had xSLG of .719+, and all 4 were outs. The most egregious was a 106 mph missile with a 36 degree launch angle that should have resulted a SLG of 2.920 and a BA of .743, but was instead an out.

So again, if those 4 outs he smashed resulted in extra base hits instead, we wouldn't even be having this discussion. The fact 4 unlucky PAs can tank his numbers so drastically should tell everyone all they need to know about the sample size we are dealing with.
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Boom. That's pretty good stuff.
 
Enscheff said:
So again, if those 4 outs he smashed resulted in extra base hits instead, we wouldn't even be having this discussion. The fact 4 unlucky PAs can tank his numbers so drastically should tell everyone all they need to know about the sample size we are dealing with.
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THe sample size is 2+ years. Since 2020 ended he has compiled these stats.

.215/.274/.389 .289wOBA 81 wRC+

I've seen enough the last 2 years. Hope he proves me wrong and goes on a tear, but at some point you got to acknowledge that maybe he just ain't it.
 
Orlando Arcia (wrist) said Tuesday that he hopes to return sometime next week.
Arcia is expected to be re-evaluated soon to determine whether he'll need a minor league rehab assignment. He's been out since mid-April due to a microfracture in his left wrist, but doesn't appear to be facing an extended absence.
 
Tapate50 said:
Orlando Arcia (wrist) said Tuesday that he hopes to return sometime next week.
Arcia is expected to be re-evaluated soon to determine whether he'll need a minor league rehab assignment. He's been out since mid-April due to a microfracture in his left wrist, but doesn't appear to be facing an extended absence.
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Arcia and Harris returning around the same time would be very nice
 
UNCBlue012 said:
It sounds like d'Arnaud will also be around the same timeline. Iggy isn't far behind.
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Acuna RF
Olson 1B
Riley 3B
Murphy C
Harris CF
d'Arnaud DH
Albies 2B
Arcia SS
Hilliard LF

My god, what a lineup. Grissom would presumably be sent back to Gwinnett for more seasoning. Rosario, Ozuna, Adrianza, Tromp would be your bench pieces unless they release Ozuna.
 
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bravesfanforlife88 said:
Acuna RF
Olson 1B
Riley 3B
Murphy C
Harris CF
d'Arnaud DH
Albies 2B
Arcia SS
Hilliard LF

My god, what a lineup. Grissom would presumably be sent back to Gwinnett for more seasoning. Rosario, Ozuna, Adrianza, Tromp would be your bench pieces unless they release Ozuna.
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I'd keep Grissom up, and DFA Ozuna. We have too many guys to keep him up. Also forgetting Pillar.
 
Heyward said:
I'd keep Grissom up, and DFA Ozuna. We have too many guys to keep him up. Also forgetting Pillar.
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I'd personally rather Grissom go back to Gwinnett to play everyday. His defense is not cutting it at SS.

I had Pillar off assuming they cut him over Ozuna. I feel either one of those 2 will be out. Hopefully Pillar stays because I like the dude.
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
Acuna RF
Olson 1B
Riley 3B
Murphy C
Harris CF
d'Arnaud DH
Albies 2B
Arcia SS
Hilliard LF

My god, what a lineup. Grissom would presumably be sent back to Gwinnett for more seasoning. Rosario, Ozuna, Adrianza, Tromp would be your bench pieces unless they release Ozuna.
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Lots of questions about that bench. Pillar seems like an obvious weak side platoon partner for Hilliard. So thats one spot. Adrianza seems to have the back up IF spot locked so thats 2. If TDA is good to catch 3 times every 2 weeks Tromp could probably return to AAA. I don't see much fit for Ozuna on the roster though.
 
We will probably usher in the era of Solak tomorrow versus the lefty. His one game sample size will be enough to decided to keep him or send him back down.
 
I'm pro Grissom being a MLB player and potentially an impact one. Nothing that I have seen has suggested STAR. I think most things I've read think he'll hit long term.

For right now, I think he got rushed through the system. I do not think he is ready. I think he needs to go down and play every day. He needs to work on his defense and learn to hunt pitches he can drive. I think his bat to ball skills are hurting him some now b/c he is getting weak contact when it would be better to miss and get another shot to hit and do damage.

He is so young. Back to minors and put Arcia back in there.
 
Russ2dollas said:
I'm pro Grissom being a MLB player and potentially an impact one. Nothing that I have seen has suggested STAR. I think most things I've read think he'll hit long term.

For right now, I think he got rushed through the system. I do not think he is ready. I think he needs to go down and play every day. He needs to work on his defense and learn to hunt pitches he can drive. I think his bat to ball skills are hurting him some now b/c he is getting weak contact when it would be better to miss and get another shot to hit and do damage.

He is so young. Back to minors and put Arcia back in there.
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GRissom isn't horrible right now. His slugging is wildly low. And I think it will change drastically.
 
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