Are the Braves as hopeless as it may seem?
- Thread starter Braves78
- Start date
Are folks seriously trying to say the Braves teams of a last few years weren't constructed correctly to win?
The Braves didn't win more over the last few years for two reasons, and two reasons only...BJ Upton and Dan Uggla. Period.
The team as a whole was constructed just fine. They were young, talented, some were experienced, and the team had legitimate MLB players at every position.
The problem was that 30% of the payroll was taken up by two players that were not just bad, but among the worst 5 players in the entire sport. No team could recover from that, no matter what else the GM did. The fact the Braves won as much as they did over the past few years actually speaks volumes about just how good the rest of the roster was to make up for those two terrible players.
Things would have been much different in Atlanta if Wren had signed Pagan instead of BJ, and had not given Uggla that extension so soon (and thus not at all). This whole rebuild is happening ONLY because the Uggla and BJ contracts are absolutely destroying this team financially. Those two contracts are why there was no money to extend Heyward and JUp, and why there is no money to fix the roster until 2017.
The Braves didn't win more over the last few years for two reasons, and two reasons only...BJ Upton and Dan Uggla. Period.
The team as a whole was constructed just fine. They were young, talented, some were experienced, and the team had legitimate MLB players at every position.
The problem was that 30% of the payroll was taken up by two players that were not just bad, but among the worst 5 players in the entire sport. No team could recover from that, no matter what else the GM did. The fact the Braves won as much as they did over the past few years actually speaks volumes about just how good the rest of the roster was to make up for those two terrible players.
Things would have been much different in Atlanta if Wren had signed Pagan instead of BJ, and had not given Uggla that extension so soon (and thus not at all). This whole rebuild is happening ONLY because the Uggla and BJ contracts are absolutely destroying this team financially. Those two contracts are why there was no money to extend Heyward and JUp, and why there is no money to fix the roster until 2017.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Agree.
This team tanked b/c of Upton. Uggla and Upton, but mostly BJ. I think it's part of why JUp wasn't staying long term...hard to sign off with a franchise that your brother is killing.
If the Phillies sign BJ, then I think we are not doing this now. Schafer and Cunningham not being worth anything may also count as we were forced to go for a FA CF.
This team tanked b/c of Upton. Uggla and Upton, but mostly BJ. I think it's part of why JUp wasn't staying long term...hard to sign off with a franchise that your brother is killing.
If the Phillies sign BJ, then I think we are not doing this now. Schafer and Cunningham not being worth anything may also count as we were forced to go for a FA CF.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
I think the season could be interesting.
I like the rotation. I think the bullpen could be good.
The division could be nasty. As good as the Nats are, the division could beat up on each other. If that's the case, maybe the braves stay "in it" because maybe 88-90 wins wins the division.
I hope we have a good year. But I hope these older RPs and Minor do great so we can turn them at the deadline into some long term assets.
I like the rotation. I think the bullpen could be good.
The division could be nasty. As good as the Nats are, the division could beat up on each other. If that's the case, maybe the braves stay "in it" because maybe 88-90 wins wins the division.
I hope we have a good year. But I hope these older RPs and Minor do great so we can turn them at the deadline into some long term assets.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Three titles in 5 years is a dynasty.
Call it lucky, call it fluky but thats a dynasty no question.
If thats not a dynasty, what is?
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
IMO it is better to have the hope of youth where you can see potential greatness as opposed to the nag that is going to finish in "show" place every time. There is win, place, show then the field. The Braves have become a consistent "show" team with no true hope of being any better, but sometimes worse.
And to keep the team at the illusion of the precipice of greatness, the most recent GM spent his capital on pieces that were boom or bust in keeping the team there, and he went bust.
The Braves also over this period of time changed draft and trade philosophy to a focus of helping the team now or helping the team soon which meant that they consistently passed on higher "ceiling" guys to go get "sure" things. There were a few times they went outside of their self inflicted box and that mostly went bad as well. Combine this with a hard line ownership stance on draft slots and a general exit from the international market, and you have a barren minor league system that was probably worse than it was listed.
It was time for a change.
Once you come to grips with that, it is logical to say that with the way the rules are set up in Baseball today as far as talent acquisition (draft, international, etc.), retention (comp picks, etc.), that if your going to be bad it's to your best advantage to be the worst. Then the pressure is on to actually do something with the position.
And to keep the team at the illusion of the precipice of greatness, the most recent GM spent his capital on pieces that were boom or bust in keeping the team there, and he went bust.
The Braves also over this period of time changed draft and trade philosophy to a focus of helping the team now or helping the team soon which meant that they consistently passed on higher "ceiling" guys to go get "sure" things. There were a few times they went outside of their self inflicted box and that mostly went bad as well. Combine this with a hard line ownership stance on draft slots and a general exit from the international market, and you have a barren minor league system that was probably worse than it was listed.
It was time for a change.
Once you come to grips with that, it is logical to say that with the way the rules are set up in Baseball today as far as talent acquisition (draft, international, etc.), retention (comp picks, etc.), that if your going to be bad it's to your best advantage to be the worst. Then the pressure is on to actually do something with the position.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
That could be. I always thought Wren was under some unrealistic expectations when he took over from those above him without a solid budget to work from.
As per Escheff's point, they were constructed to win, but I think only constructed to win "now." I would have let Uggla walk after a year and I would have never signed Melvin Upton. I'm old. I'm in for the long haul and those the Uggla extension and the Melvin Upton signing put great constraints on the budget. I'm not saying Heyward would have been signed until 2025 with the leftover dollars or anything like that, but I always thought Wren was way too aggressive in surrounding Freeman and Heyward with "an all-star at every position" strategy. Can't do that given the budget he had.
I would have been curious to see what Wren had done had he stuck around. Maybe he waits until the July 31, 2015, deadline to make deals with Heyward and J. Upton (provided we weren't in contention). Who knows?
jsebe10
Well-known member
Some one please tell me again why Bobby Cox and Bow tie boy Schuerlholtz get a pass here? I remember reading articles stating that Bobby was key in getting BJ here. Saw him at the pressure too with a smile. It's time we cut loose of the old faces like Schuerlholtz and Cox. They are past their days.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
I don't think signing BJ or Uggla had to do with allstars.
Uggla was our answer to right handed power shortage. He was OK his first 2 years, here. There was some concerns in 2013 but overall his numbers had some things to be concerned about (raise in K rate) but if his BABIP was normalize he would have been OK. An overpay for us, but not the worst thing. Uggla wasn't terrible overall until last year. Last year he was horrific. Walks down, Ks still up, power way down. **** **** ****ty ****.
As far as Upton, I think that move was again for a righty and I think he would come from the idea of attracting Justin and keeping him around.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Did you read the first line of my post? JS was above Wren and I think Schuerholz made a ton of mistakes after the sale to Liberty. He handed things over the Wren and kept high expectations with an ever-tightening budget.
I frankly don't care who was responsible, but Wren was sitting in the chair at the time. The extension of Uggla and the signing of Melvin were both mistakes. People can say how the Uggla demise was unexpected and I agree that the rapidity of his decline was unexpected, but guys like Uggla decline once they hit 30 years old and he was 31 when the extension was signed. Uggla never had an .800 OPS while in Atlanta.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Not only are we not the prettiest girl at the dance, we give a really bad BJ.
We'd have to be lucky in order to compete in 2015. Sadly, the Braves don't do luck. Good luck, anyway.
It'd be nice if we filled an inside straight with a Peterson or the Cuban dude hits .300 with speed and good defense, or Markakis returns to form. Those things never happen to the Braves, though. And now we're dumpster diving for our bench, which never ends well.
We'd have to be lucky in order to compete in 2015. Sadly, the Braves don't do luck. Good luck, anyway.
It'd be nice if we filled an inside straight with a Peterson or the Cuban dude hits .300 with speed and good defense, or Markakis returns to form. Those things never happen to the Braves, though. And now we're dumpster diving for our bench, which never ends well.
Found this rather interesting...
PECOTA has the Braves as a 74 win team. Obviously not very surprising - probably pretty much where we all kinda figure they'll be.
The interesting part? PECOTA also projects the Royals as a 72 win team. Also according to those charts the Rays will get the second AL wildcard.
Hmmmmmmmm...
PECOTA has the Braves as a 74 win team. Obviously not very surprising - probably pretty much where we all kinda figure they'll be.
The interesting part? PECOTA also projects the Royals as a 72 win team. Also according to those charts the Rays will get the second AL wildcard.
Hmmmmmmmm...
I definitely think mid 70's is where we will be. If things go well I think it could as high as 78 but if things go badly it could go to 68.
Its also worth nothing and I hope some of the more analytically inclined folks can correct me if I'm wrong but Pecota probably uses assumptions based off of the recent data and its correlation to wins. I wonder if they've caught up to how baseball will be played moving forward
Its also worth nothing and I hope some of the more analytically inclined folks can correct me if I'm wrong but Pecota probably uses assumptions based off of the recent data and its correlation to wins. I wonder if they've caught up to how baseball will be played moving forward
It also projects the Braves to score the 2nd fewest runs in MLB (barely behind the Phils), and be the worst defensive team according to FRAA. If the pitching wasn't so good, or there are a few letdowns, this could quite possibly be a 100 loss team.
In short: it's going to be a loooong season for Braves fans.
It also projected the Red Sox to win 89 games last year and the ROyals with 79 and Nats with 88 last year. Lets not act like they have a great hold on what the future will be. All analytic are in flux right now until we get more data past the steroid era.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
It could also go the other way couldn't it? A couple of our young pitchers take the next step in growth and BJ finds some semblance of being a baseball player and CJ plays more like his norms...
Keep up the good fight on baseball reverting back to the 85 Cardinals
It projected 4 of the 6 division winners. Nothing is perfect, but they do a pretty good job.
Please tell me if I'm not understanding how PECOTA works then. I honestly don't know.
PECOTA [ Return To Top ]
Stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. PECOTA is BP's proprietary system that projects player performance based on comparison with historical player-seasons. There are three elements to PECOTA:
1) Major-league equivalencies, to allow us to use minor-league stats to project how a player will perform in the majors;
2) Baseline forecasts, which use weighted averages and regression to the mean to produce an estimate of a player's true talent level;
3) A career-path adjustment, which incorporates information about how comparable players' stats changed over time.