Around Baseball 2015 Edition

Our record is also 3 games above our pythagorean. Which suggests we're been more lucky than not, and that Fredi has done a splendid job getting this many wins out of this crew.

Btw I don't think this team has been especially unlucky in terms of injuries/major regression.

Consider the 2013 that won 96 games. It did so in spite of Heyward's broken jaw, Hudson's broken ankle, McCann missing over a month, Uggla and Melvin hitting under .200, injuries to Beachy, Venters and O'Flaherty. Every team has injuries.

details...
 
It's like you didn't read any I posted.

These are the facts: This team was .500 on July 7. In the 28 games since, we are 9-19. During this time, our best hitter has played all of 10 games. And all those 10 games were played all without our (arguably) 2nd and 3rd best hitters Uribe and KJ.

So tell me, what exactly is the difference in the last 28 games compared to the first 84? The schedule? Hardly. We've played half of those 28 games against MIL, CO, BAL, MIA, and PHI. It seems the only difference is missing our best players for a good portion of that time period

Braves are still below .500 when Freeman plays. The main difference is the team stopped scoring runs because the overachievers came down to earth. Freeman being out hurt but he wasn't the main reason the team stopped scoring runs.
 
Consider the 2013 that won 96 games. It did so in spite of Heyward's broken jaw, Hudson's broken ankle, McCann missing over a month, Uggla and Melvin hitting under .200, injuries to Beachy, Venters and O'Flaherty. Every team has injuries.

Don't forget we had Elliot Johnson starting for us. And that Walden missed time to injury too. And that Justin only showed up for 2 months that year.
 
It's like you didn't read any I posted.

So tell me, what exactly is the difference in the last 28 games compared to the first 84? The schedule? Hardly. We've played half of those 28 games against MIL, CO, BAL, MIA, and PHI. It seems the only difference is missing our best players for a good portion of that time period

Our schedule was the same? Really?

During the first half we only had 13 series against teams with winning records (out of 28 total series). From July 9th, when we were 1 game below .500, till July 29th when we dropped 9 games below .500, 4 of the 5 teams we faced had winning records (and 5 of 7 when we got to 12 games below .500, and the Phils are 16-6 in the second half on top of that). And that was before we traded anyone for the most part (KJ and Uribe were traded for like two of those games, and we had Freddie back for those games they were gone), so unless you somehow think Freddie is a 20 WAR player it wasn't simply missing him that caused us to drop 8 more games below .500 in a 16 game stretch. We've gotten beat by teams with winning records all season, it's not some strange thing when we struggled against good teams (and it likely would have been even worse had we not gotten lucky and missed Kershaw and Grienke during the Dodgers series).

13 of the 23 teams we face in the second half have winning records. Our schedule in the second half is much harder than the first, it's not even close really.
 
We got crazy lucky with the SP draw in the 1st half, too . . . missed Kershaw and Grienke one, missed Kershaw the next time, missed the Mets studs, beat up on the Marlins before Fernandez came back, etc . . .
 
We got crazy lucky with the SP draw in the 1st half, too . . . missed Kershaw and Grienke one, missed Kershaw the next time, missed the Mets studs, beat up on the Marlins before Fernandez came back, etc . . .

We did sweep Harvey, DeGrom AND Noah at home....
 
We did sweep Harvey, DeGrom AND Noah at home....

Doesn't really change his key fact that we missed most teams good pitchers this year. We've face DeGrom in 2 of the 4 series so far against the Mets, Syndergaard in 1 of 2 series he was up for, and Harvey in 1 of 4 series. Faced Scherzer in 1 of 4 Nats series. Faced Kershaw in 1 of 2 Dodgers series, faced Grienke zero times in 2 series. Faced Cueto 1 time in 2 Reds series. Faced Gerrit Cole in one of 2 Pitt series, didn't face Burnett in 2 Pitt series. Faced Hamels in 1 of 3 Phils series.

Honestly, before I was curious and just looked it up I didn't realize how absurdly lucky we were with matchups in the first half. I knew we missed Grienke and Kershaw and seemed to not face many teams best pitchers, but had no idea it was that ridiculous. I'm not even sure how the hell all that managed to happen, that's basically facing teams #3,#4, and #5 starters the majority of the series we have had against decent teams.
 
Doesn't really change his key fact that we missed most teams good pitchers this year. We've face DeGrom in 2 of the 4 series so far against the Mets, Syndergaard in 1 of 2 series he was up for, and Harvey in 1 of 4 series. Faced Scherzer in 1 of 4 Nats series. Faced Kershaw in 1 of 2 Dodgers series, faced Grienke zero times in 2 series. Faced Cueto 1 time in 2 Reds series. Faced Gerrit Cole in one of 2 Pitt series, didn't face Burnett in 2 Pitt series. Faced Hamels in 1 of 3 Phils series.

Honestly, before I was curious and just looked it up I didn't realize how absurdly lucky we were with matchups in the first half. I knew we missed Grienke and Kershaw and seemed to not face many teams best pitchers, but had no idea it was that ridiculous. I'm not even sure how the hell all that managed to happen, that's basically facing teams #3,#4, and #5 starters the majority of the series we have had against decent teams.

So we're supposed to face a teams top guns every series?
 
So we're supposed to face a teams top guns every series?

Of course not, but we had 27 chances to face those pitchers I just mentioned, and we only faced them 9 times. That's a much lower than normal % chance to face them since you'd face 60% of a teams rotation in a given 3 game series. It's extremely bad in the case of the Mets, where we've managed to only face pretty much 1 of the three good pitchers per series on average, we've faced their #4 and #5 starters in almost every series. I'd expect to at least face a teams best pitcher at least once if we place them 6 times, but we've had multiple teams where we missed their best pitcher altogether with 6 games, or like with Scherzer where we hit him once in 12 games.

I'm not really willing to go all in on the probably statistics on that, but they have to be pretty low odds when it has happened that many times this year.
 
I really do believe the Mets are going to win the world series.

Who the heck is going to hit Harvey/Degrom in a seven game series?
 
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