bravesnumberone
Well-known member
Pretty crazy how Texas turned its season around.
Around Baseball 2015 Edition
- Thread starter NinersSBChamps
- Start date
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Texas last year was 67-95, their starting lineup by most played games was
C - Chirinos
1B - Fielder
2B - Odor
3B - Beltre
SS - Andrus
LF - Choo
CF - Martin
RF - Rios
DH - Moreland
Rotation of
Lewis
Darvish
Martinez
Tepesch
Ross
This year their lineup is
C - Chirinos
1B - Moreland
2B - Odor
3B - Beltre
SS - Andrus
LF - Deshields
CF - Martin
RF - Choo
DH - Fielder
Rotation of
Lewis
Gallardo
Marinez
Wandy
Perez
Gonzalez
Onto a bit more meat and potatoes in terms of RAR results
Last year, Rangers had an offensive RAR of -79.9 and a defense of -24.5 This year they're at -25.4 and 3.1. What happened was the guys who sucked last year who shouldn't have, Choo, Fielder, and Moreland, remembered they're good major league hitters. Not light hitting short stops.
Pitching wise they're pretty similar to last year, They're better across the board. But individually they're missing a Darvish. Gallardo has been really good, but not as good as Darvish. But pretty much across the board improvements from Lewis and Perez really helped. And adding Hamels will almost certainly help for the stretch run.
Texas before the season were in a similar position to us. Instead of selling they went and got Hamilton and Gallardo. They gave up some good talent to do it.
Texas is a great example for the people in favor of not goign for the rebuild. We were projected similar to Texas pre-2014, had no fall from grace like they did, and they're leading the division right now. Of course the long term is the argument for the rebuild, but we'll have to jts wait and see. If we suck in 5 years, Texas will be a team to point to as if to say, "what if"
I just can't wait until we're no longer talking about this decision to rebuild. In hindsight, it was clearly the right decision, and it is going extremely well so far. I just long for a time a few years from now when we don't have to talk about it anymore. The decision has been made.
sturg33
I
I disagree it's going well.
We're the worst team in baseball. We got not true impact pieces back in the trades from our studs - except Shelby, and he's wasting away on the worst team in baseball.
There no clear path to improvement, other than wait several years for the very lower minors to develop.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I think the difference is that Texas had some pretty solid veterans who simply weren't performing well and have $40 million more in payroll than we do. I don't think our current veterans--outside of Freeman--have ceilings similar to the guys who weren't performing in Texas. I think we all see what happens to a line-up when solid (though not spectacular bats) like Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe are absent.
But I think the real difference is that the guys you are talking about in Texas weren't scheduled for free agency. If we don't retain one of Heyward or J. Upton (and rid ourselves of M. Upton, Jr.), we were pretty much sunk after this year. Plus, I don't know how we replace 550 - 600 IP in 2015. There's was going to be a re-build of some sort. It was just a matter of how comprehensive and the timeline. There's been a bunch of decisions made, some of which I find puzzling, that have really caused short-term performance to tank.
Anyway, I think 2018 or 2019 is a more likely time frame for when we will be competitive again. It took the Cubs that long (with a bigger payroll) and it took the Twins that long. It will likely take us that long. When you're building from the bottom up, that's the way it usually goes.
dak
Well-known member
If the Braves decided not to rebuild and go for it, I do think there was a chance they could've made the playoffs. Probably similar playoff odds to what the Rangers had. Like Texas, they would've needed to add pieces at the break to pull it off and surrender some prospects from an already thin system.
The key difference between the Braves' and Rangers' situations though was the implication of going for it on future seasons. The Rangers could go for it and still have competitive 2016 and 2017 teams. I do not believe the Braves could have pulled that off without A LOT of luck.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Did punting in 2016 accelerate the rebuild? A little is the answer I come up with. Guys like Albies, Yepez and Acuna were already signed before the new team came aboard. So some restocking of the farm system would have occurred anyhow. Plus the relatively high 2015 draft pick (and second first round pick from the QO to Santana) would have been there with or without punting. Plus with or without punting we would have had the option of blowing past our international slot numbers in the next signing period.
With or without punting we would likely be looking at a team that projects to 75-80 wins in 2016. With or without punting we would have the new stadium and a bigger payroll in 2017. I don't think all the trades we've made significantly move the needle on the 2017 team. So we punted for what? A marginally brighter outlook for 2018 and beyond. To me it is not worth the punt, especially when you consider that every year there are one or two teams like the Rangers this year who get the pixie dust.
With or without punting we would likely be looking at a team that projects to 75-80 wins in 2016. With or without punting we would have the new stadium and a bigger payroll in 2017. I don't think all the trades we've made significantly move the needle on the 2017 team. So we punted for what? A marginally brighter outlook for 2018 and beyond. To me it is not worth the punt, especially when you consider that every year there are one or two teams like the Rangers this year who get the pixie dust.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
It's really pretty simple.
I don't agree that we compare to Texas. Here are the key differences, which also happen to be the exact reasons we went into rebuild mode:
- two of our three best players were set to become FAs after 2015. this is not the case for Texas.
- Texas has/had a pretty strong system, which affords them not only the ability to look towards the future and figure they'll be OK moving forward without punting, but also the ability to add crucial players if they're in the hunt come deadline time.
Our pitching hasn't been good and was due for regression from last year. Not even signing Lester would've saved it or brought it to championship level this year. And we wouldn't have been able to trade for a substantial reinforcement without cleaning out what little talent we did have in the minors.
Going for it this year would've monumentally dumb and doomed us for the future.
I don't agree that we compare to Texas. Here are the key differences, which also happen to be the exact reasons we went into rebuild mode:
- two of our three best players were set to become FAs after 2015. this is not the case for Texas.
- Texas has/had a pretty strong system, which affords them not only the ability to look towards the future and figure they'll be OK moving forward without punting, but also the ability to add crucial players if they're in the hunt come deadline time.
Our pitching hasn't been good and was due for regression from last year. Not even signing Lester would've saved it or brought it to championship level this year. And we wouldn't have been able to trade for a substantial reinforcement without cleaning out what little talent we did have in the minors.
Going for it this year would've monumentally dumb and doomed us for the future.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
There are some differences with Texas which you point out and they have some bearing on the decision.
But the point I would emphasize is that we can set aside any comparisons with Texas and ask whether the punt did anything much to the outlook for 2016 and 2017. I would say no. It will marginally improve the outlook for 2018 and beyond. Marginally.
dak
Well-known member
I know some will disagree, but I believe the decision to start the rebuild with 2015 instead of 2016 will reduce the length of the rebuild by at least one year. I'm comfortable sacrificing a year in which we would've had a ~25% chance of making the playoffs in order to fast-track this process. If we don't field a team that is in playoff contention down the stretch in 2017, I think Hart will have done a very poor job in seeing this process through.
Who is in the pipeline that will be ready by 2017 to help make this a playoff contender? Seems to me if they want to be a contender it's going to have to be done by either traders of FA's. Other than Shelby I see nobody we got in all these trades that would be major contributors by then.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It could happen if guys like Wisler, Smith, Peterson, Folty, Banuelos, Olivera (relative to Wood and Peraza) take some big strides forward. I don't think it is likely. In fact the odds look quite low to me. That's my point and I suspect yours as well. The real rebuilding could have occurred independent of the trades that eviscerated the 2015 team while doing very little to move the needle for 2017.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
Really though?
Wasn't Riley a pick that came with one of the trades, or am I wrong?
Adding Shelby is big by itself.
Perhaps a top-3 pick this year because of it.
I think the glut of prospects we got from all the trades, while none are absolute studs, are really, really important for depth which is hugely important for minor league development.
Losing Heyward and Upton with only comp picks in return because we decided to go for it would've have really hurt the future. I don't think it would've been a marginal boo-boo compared to what we got for the future instead. Add in the future cost savings of trading Kimbrel and BJ and I think it's tough to conclude that we'd be just as well off in 2017 without making these deals.
Once Olivera beats out Garcia and Castro for playing time, that is.
Most of those guys seem like fillter to me (aside from Olivera but your taking Wood and Peraza out of the equation). Which has been the biggest complain about our returns. No impact guys and just depth. And someone like ManBan was had for filler anyways which wouldn't of had much impact on the 2015 team.
Who are those guys though? We got a ton of depth in our trades but no impact guys. Unless your saying the plan was to suck so bad we get one of the top 2 picks in next years draft which should yield an impact player.
Wood and Peraza might be better than anything we got in return except for Shelby Miller.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Riley did come from a trade no doubt. Do we value the return from the trade as Riley or the expected value of a player picked about where Riley was. If the answer is the former, I would wonder how we should value the picks linked to a QO to Upton or Heyward (they would both be higher than the pick used to get Riley).
As for Shelby, that is worth taking into account. But properly. It will be nice to have Shelby around in 2017. But we need to consider his salary by then. He will have some surplus value since a player in their second arb season doesn't get full market price. So yeah, there is some value there. But not as much as if you didn't take account the fact he will be starting to get expensive by then.