can't wait to dissect the surplus value!
Around MLB 2017
- Thread starter mossy
- Start date
can't wait to dissect the surplus value!
There really is a tweet for everything.
[TW]258208796839657472[/TW]
[TW]258208796839657472[/TW]
sturg33
I
South... take Olivera out of the equation for a second. What we did, in net, was bring on Kemp and $36M in obligation. The amount of money we took on for Kemp was an additional $36M beyond Olivera's obligation
Southcack77
Well-known member
Yes, I'm aware. I don't know why you think I don't understand what is my central objection to the Kemp deal.
I don't think it's useful to look at the Kemp trade as a meaningful extension of the original HO trade.
The braves would like to frame it that they got something for oliveira, but the Padres could just as well as have agreed to send 30 million over four years as take Oliveira's salary.
They didn't care about HO. They just wanted to give away Kemp. They had to eat a fair amount of money to do so.
sturg33
I
It is a meaningful extension of the Olivera deal or else the Braves could have just released HO, cleared the roster spot, and saved $36M
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Tigers kick in 15M. I think the Stros payed a significant premium there.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Yes they could have.
What I'm saying is the Braves would like you to believe that they turned HO into Kemp and invite you to consider Kemp as somehow making the HO deal better. You are accepting that frame and saying it made the HO trade worse.
I'm saying Hector Oliveira didn't have a bloody thing to do with the Padres being perfectly willing to give Kemp away and pay a significant portion of his salary in doing so. In no way, was HO an inducement to the Padres doing that deal. It's simply the way in which they agreed to eat part of Kemp's salary.
In my book that means that it wasn't really an extension of the HO trade, because HO the player and really HO the financial obligation was mostly irrelevant to its calculation. Did they really care whether they would pay the Braves directly or Hector Oliveira? I doubt it.
The Braves did not want the bad press of cutting Oliveira. Instead they threw him in this deal to save some sort of face. That's all. And it seems many people bought it judging from these threads.
They did. It would be interesting to see who else was involved in the process. I would guess other contenders were interested, which obviously kicks the value up.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Dear sweet baby Jesus. Never mind. Never mind.
Called it.
Verlander at 2/40 plus whatever he does and is owed this season. Surplus value of ~$10M for the rest of this season. Assuming he produces 6 WAR over the next 2 seasons, that's an additional $20M in surplus. Total surplus value of $30M.
For:
Franklin Perez (#62, FV 55, $22M)
Daz Cameron (NR, FV 45/50, $11M-$20M)
Jake Rodgers (NR, FV 40, $5M)
Total: $38M-$47M
Comparable Braves package:
Allard/Anderson/Soroka
Pache
Hebert
I would have had mixed feelings had the Braves made that trade, but I'm glad they didn't do it. It looks like a bit of an overpay by the Astros depending on how you value Daz, but not horribly so. They are obviously looking at Verlander's perceived upside and outstanding durability. That may be overvalued a bit by the Astros since they have had injury questions in their rotation all year.
I think the Tigers did well here. The name value of Daz Cameron is probably what allowed them to let Verlander go. Daz will be marketed as a much better future piece than he is likely to be. They will sell Perez as "the next Verlander".
ETA: The Tigers also sent a PTBNL to Houston, likely increasing Houston's haul by ~$5M. Looks like the idea of surplus value proves accurate yet again.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
HO as only marginally relevant to the Kemp trade overlooks the fact that HO was brought in to be a big bat to pair with Freeman. When that failed the FO turned to the idea of Kemp
Whether HO was released and his salary eaten and THEN Kemp acquired at an additional Padre discount OR whether it was done the way it was done makes no real difference.
The moves were connected, bad cause bad effect
The original HO trade was a result of trying to rush the rebuild and when it blew up they threw bad money after bad and doubled down with Kemp still trying to rush the rebuild
Whether HO was released and his salary eaten and THEN Kemp acquired at an additional Padre discount OR whether it was done the way it was done makes no real difference.
The moves were connected, bad cause bad effect
The original HO trade was a result of trying to rush the rebuild and when it blew up they threw bad money after bad and doubled down with Kemp still trying to rush the rebuild
Southcack77
Well-known member
It's not an important point. I hate that I ever expressed it. Please wipe it from your collective minds. Frame it how makes you most pleased.
Imagine that.
Archer pulled 8 pitches into his last start with forearm tightness. We all know what that usually means.
This is why a team doesn't trade for pitchers until they are ready to use them. Always always always let someone else shoulder the injury risk as long as possible.
This is why a team doesn't trade for pitchers until they are ready to use them. Always always always let someone else shoulder the injury risk as long as possible.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Coppy is wise beyond his years not have made that deal! Genius!