Around MLB 2017

Interesting thought experiment. Let's investigate...

JJ (0.5 bWAR, 1.3 fWAR) replaced by Kimbrel (2.3bWAR, 2.2 fWAR): 1-2 win upgrade
Swanson (0 bWAR, -0.3 fWAR) replaced by Simmons (4.3 bWAR, 3.1 fWAR): 3-4 win upgrade
Folty (1.2 bWAR, 0.8 fWAR) replaced by Wood (3.0 bWAR, 3.4 fWAR): ~2 win upgrade
Inciarte/Kemp/Markakis (1.6 bWAR, 2.6 fWAR) replaced $32M/$10M per WAR (1.8 FA WAR): 0-1 win downgrade

The Braves currently have 45 wins. With all those changes they would have 50-52 wins. They would be 1-3 games out of the WC race, and would undoubtedly looking to upgrade 3B at the deadline.

They would still have Albies, Acuna, Maitan, Allard, Soroka, plus the late-first picks they got from losing JUp and Heyward in the system. They would also have 2 of Anderson/Muller/Wentz in the system from the 2016 draft. They likely still draft Waters this past draft.

Which situation would I rather be in? Not too hard to pick, in my opinion.

Given Wren's bad drafting in his past couple drafts once he got fired, dont think it's fair to assume he drafts the players Coppy did.
 
Interesting thought experiment. Let's investigate...

JJ (0.5 bWAR, 1.3 fWAR) replaced by Kimbrel (2.3bWAR, 2.2 fWAR): 1-2 win upgrade
Swanson (0 bWAR, -0.3 fWAR) replaced by Simmons (4.3 bWAR, 3.1 fWAR): 3-4 win upgrade
Folty (1.2 bWAR, 0.8 fWAR) replaced by Wood (3.0 bWAR, 3.4 fWAR): ~2 win upgrade
Inciarte/Kemp/Markakis (1.6 bWAR, 2.6 fWAR) replaced $32M/$10M per WAR (1.8 FA WAR): 0-1 win downgrade

The Braves currently have 45 wins. With all those changes they would have 50-52 wins. They would be 1-3 games out of the WC race, and would undoubtedly looking to upgrade 3B at the deadline.

They would still have Albies, Acuna, Maitan, Allard, Soroka, plus the late-first picks they got from losing JUp and Heyward in the system. They would also have 2 of Anderson/Muller/Wentz in the system from the 2016 draft. They likely still draft Waters this past draft.

Which situation would I rather be in? Not too hard to pick, in my opinion.

Actually we would have Folty in both scenarios since I thought it made sense to trade Gattis to an AL team.
 
Actually we would have Folty in both scenarios since I thought it made sense to trade Gattis to an AL team.

Countered by the fact that they may still do the Olivera trade as a "win now" move for 3B. Maybe they flip Gattis for an OFer or a guy at 3B in this sceanrio. Who knows. I wanted to stick with 1:1 comps.

I think 50+ wins right now is a fair estimate for this alternate universe.
 
I would not have been afraid to keep Heyward and Upton in 2015 and let them go to free agency. We did very well with the draft pick we got for Santana (Soroka). Not every draft pick at that point in the draft turns into a Soroka but those picks are on average fairly valuable.

I wouldn't have forced a trade for Kimbrel and would not have lessened the return by making the other team take on Melvin. I think mid-season trade for Kimbrel (whether in 2015 or 2016) would have given us a bigger return. I would have also traded Gattis to an American League team (that part lines up with what Hart did). And obviously I don't think any of us would have done the Olivera trade. The Simmons trade was also one where I think we forced things and did not get as good a return as would have been the case if we had been a bit more cagey and patient. And I would have held on to Simmons absent an exceptional offer.

Its all speculative to some extent but an "alternative future" might have looked like this:

1. Keep Wood and Peraza

2. Still have Folty, etc coming over for Gattis.

3. Better return for Kimbrel

4. Keep Simmons

5. Have 2 extra #1 picks from Heyward and Upton going to free agency

6. Still draft Allard and Soroka in 2015.

7. Have a mid-first round pick rather than the #3 (Anderson) in 2016.

8. No Ender and Dansby

9. Still have Albies, Acuna, Sims and Camargo.

10. No Olivera, hence no Kemp

11. No Markakis

12. To be fair I think in this "alternative future" we don't bust the international signing budget. So no Maitan.

13. Financially we would still have CJ and BJ contracts this year. But more flexibility after this year without Kemp and Markakis.

So our farm system would look something like this:

1. Acuna

2. Albies

3. Allard

4. Soroka

5. Bryse Wilson

and then whatever we got in the Kimbrel deal and the mid-1st and compensatory picks, and then very little behind that.

And our MLB roster would look something like this in terms of young assets:

1B: Freeman

2B: Peraza

SS: Simmons

3B: Camargo

SP: Teheran

SP: Wood

SP: Folty

So that's basically what we'd be looking at. It's interesting, but I'm still taking where we are now. I like Inciarte, Dansby, Anderson/Wentz/Muller, Gohara, Newcomb, Fried, Touki, Jackson, and the international signings over Wood, Simmons, Peraza, a better Kimbrel return, and the compensatory picks. Some may disagree, but I like where we are now.
 
Given Wren's bad drafting in his past couple drafts once he got fired, dont think it's fair to assume he drafts the players Coppy did.

You're right, Wren probably doesn't draft 5 pitchers with those selections.

Add that as another plus for this alternate reality Braves franchise.
 
Interesting thought experiment. Let's investigate...

JJ (0.5 bWAR, 1.3 fWAR) replaced by Kimbrel (2.3bWAR, 2.2 fWAR): 1-2 win upgrade

Swanson (0 bWAR, -0.3 fWAR) replaced by Simmons (4.3 bWAR, 3.1 fWAR): 3-4 win upgrade

Folty (1.2 bWAR, 0.8 fWAR) replaced by Wood (3.0 bWAR, 3.4 fWAR): ~2 win upgrade

Inciarte/Kemp/Markakis (1.6 bWAR, 2.6 fWAR) replaced $32M/$10M per WAR (1.8 FA WAR): 0-1 win downgrade

The Braves currently have 45 wins. With all those changes they would have 50-52 wins. They would be 1-3 games out of the WC race, and would undoubtedly looking to upgrade 3B at the deadline.

They would still have Albies, Acuna, Maitan, Allard, Soroka, plus the late-first picks they got from losing JUp and Heyward in the system. They would also have 2 of Anderson/Muller/Wentz in the system from the 2016 draft. They likely still draft Waters this past draft. They would still have a Top 5-10 farm system.

Which situation would I rather be in? Not too hard to pick, in my opinion.

We wouldn't still have Kimbrel.
 
You're right, Wren probably doesn't draft 5 pitchers with those selections.

Add that as another plus for this alternate reality Braves franchise.

Lulz if you think Wren wasn't about to draft pitchers. The only difference is they wouldn't be nearly as talented.
 
Wren was a terrible GM for having a very talented ML roster who were young and mostly cost controlled, because he depleted the farm system

Epstein is the best GM of all time for having an extremely talented ML roster who are young and mostly cost controlled, despite depleting their farm system.

Wasn't aware aware trading Mark Teixeira for Casey Kotchman was a win now move...or anything other than playoff killing. Practically Aybar alone for Simmons level

The difference between Wren and Epstein is that Epstein sacrifices the future for pieces he can actually use to win championships.

Also, let me go count all the rings Wren has.
 
Wasn't aware aware trading Mark Teixeira for Casey Kotchman was a win now move...or anything other than playoff killing. Practically Aybar alone for Simmons level

The difference between Wren and Epstein is that Epstein sacrifices the future for pieces he can actually use to win championships.

Also, let me go count all the rings Wren has.

LOL that's rich. Epstein got to actually rebuild with both the Cubs and BoSox. Wren never had that opportunity.

Oh, and let's talk about payroll available in Boston, Chicago and Atlanta. How many $150M+ FAs did Wren get to buy?

Go count the flags hanging at SunTrust under Coppy while you're out counting things.
 
You're right, Wren probably doesn't draft 5 pitchers with those selections.

Add that as another plus for this alternate reality Braves franchise.

Yeah more Jason Hursh's sounds exciting!!!!!!!!!!
 
I'm not suggesting the two are equal. I was just told by a couple folks on this board last week that Wren was a bad GM due to the farm being decimated. Since major league results seem not to matter, I suppose those posters would be equally as critical to Theo

The Cubs system isn't as bad as the Braves system was and the Cubs core is much more intact than the Braves core was.

The Braves sold because they couldn't afford to resign Upton and Heyward or acquire any pitching and that was happening in one season.

The Cubs have really good looking core through 2020 at least with ample money to spend to address weaknesses.

Wren was criticized, and to some degree unfairly, because the Braves didn't have a winning MLB core, didn't have any real chance to improve much from within, and were financially strapped due to a series of bad contract decisions that made it impossible for the Braves to properly allocate their limited resources.

But Wren got there through trying to deliver what his superiors wanted, which was continual contention without selling or rebuilding.
 
LOL that's rich. Epstein got to actually rebuild with both the Cubs and BoSox. Wren never had that opportunity.

Oh, and let's talk about payroll available in Boston, Chicago and Atlanta. How many $150M+ FAs did Wren get to buy?

Go count the flags hanging at SunTrust under Coppy while you're out counting things.

It's pretty hilarious that you're supporting Wren. Your hatred of Coppy has caused you to back someone who believes essentially none of the things you believe.
 
Wasn't aware aware trading Mark Teixeira for Casey Kotchman was a win now move...or anything other than playoff killing. Practically Aybar alone for Simmons level

The difference between Wren and Epstein is that Epstein sacrifices the future for pieces he can actually use to win championships.

Also, let me go count all the rings Wren has.

My objection is to the pithy statement trying to compare the Cubs right now to the Braves in 2014. The Cubs have the young core of a championship team locked up through 2020 with no bad contracts hanging over them and no real limits to the payroll. They also have almost all of their recent MLB draft picks and the opportunity to add to that going forward. They are in great shape.

In 2014, the Braves had allocated 33% of their 2015 payroll to BJ Upton, Dan Uggla, and Chris Johnson. The only player in their system at the time who has thus far turned out to be a consistent starter is Jose Peraza, and its somewhat questionable whether he would be a starter for a team that wasn't tanking.
 
It's pretty hilarious that you're supporting Wren. Your hatred of Coppy has caused you to back someone who believes essentially none of the things you believe.

Saying Wren isn't as bad as folks are making him out to be doesn't mean I'm supporting him.

I just find it funny that folks use "facts" to diminish what Wren did that could easily be lobbed on Coppy too. Or they leave out very improtant pieces of info when they compare Wren to Theo.

I don't care about Wren, but I do care about being factually accurate.
 
Coppy is far from perfect, and there's absolutely no given Wren drafts who Coppy did.

Here's Wren's top 5 picks in his last 3 drafts but yeah im sure he drafts the same exact players Coppy did and makes the same exact trades as well rolls eyes.

2014: Chris Diaz, Chad Sobotka, Max Povse, Garrett Fulenchek, Braxton Davidson.
2013: Jason Hursh, Victor Caratini, Carlos Salazar, Tyler Murphy, Mikey Reynolds.
2012: Lucas Sims, Alex Wood, Bryan De La Rosa, Justin Black, Blake Brown.

Bunch of studs right here minus Wood.

To Coppy's last 3 drafts.

2017: Kyle Wright, Drew Waters, Freddy Tarnok, Troy Bacon, Bruce Zimmerman.
2016: Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller, Joey Wentz, Drew Harrington, Brett Cumberland, and Bryse Wilson in the 6th who is rising up prospect rankings.
2015: Koby Allard, Mike Soroka, Austin Riley, Lucas Herbert, AJ Minter, and Wiegel before TJ was poised to come up.

Yes Coppy has had higher picks but absolutely no way based off Wren's drafting history does he take the same guys just because i can say he does. Wren was not a good drafter, that was proven with how bad the farm system was when he got fired.

I dont even see how you can defend Wren. He gutted the farm system and comparing the Theo situation. Cubs have their core position players up through at least 2020. Braves didnt have that situation, Cubs have at least a top 3 of Lester, Hendricks, and Quintana going forward and im sure they'll sign a FA SP this winter with Lackey and Arrieta likely gone.
 
Had our young rotation not been decimated due to injuries things would have looked a lot differently. You can't expect everyone to stay healthy and productive but losing JJ, Hanson, Medlen, and Beachy all relatively close to each other was a kick in the nuts.

True, but also failing to keep the farm system stocked falls entirely on Wren.
 
Wren's depletion of the farm is a bit overstated.

If Wren wasn't fired, the Braves would still have Acuna and Albies. They would have signed Maitan.

Even with Wren on board, they would have still probably drafted Allard and Soroka.

How do you figure?

Regardless of how you think the new FO has done, the farm system at the time of Wren's departure was one of the worst in baseball. That is both a terrible mismanagement of assets and a failure to develop minor league talent. And he was handed, at worst, a top 5 farm when he originally took over.
 
Coppy is far from perfect, and there's absolutely no given Wren drafts who Coppy did.

Here's Wren's top 5 picks in his last 3 drafts but yeah im sure he drafts the same exact players Coppy did and makes the same exact trades as well rolls eyes.

2014: Chris Diaz, Chad Sobotka, Max Povse, Garrett Fulenchek, Braxton Davidson.
2013: Jason Hursh, Victor Caratini, Carlos Salazar, Tyler Murphy, Mikey Reynolds.
2012: Lucas Sims, Alex Wood, Bryan De La Rosa, Justin Black, Blake Brown.

Bunch of studs right here minus Wood.

To Coppy's last 3 drafts.

2017: Kyle Wright, Drew Waters, Freddy Tarnok, Troy Bacon, Bruce Zimmerman.
2016: Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller, Joey Wentz, Drew Harrington, Brett Cumberland, and Bryse Wilson in the 6th who is rising up prospect rankings.
2015: Koby Allard, Mike Soroka, Austin Riley, Lucas Herbert, AJ Minter, and Wiegel before TJ was poised to come up.

Yes Coppy has had higher picks but absolutely no way based off Wren's drafting history does he take the same guys just because i can say he does. Wren was not a good drafter, that was proven with how bad the farm system was when he got fired.

I dont even see how you can defend Wren. He gutted the farm system and comparing the Theo situation. Cubs have their core position players up through at least 2020. Braves didnt have that situation, Cubs have at least a top 3 of Lester, Hendricks, and Quintana going forward and im sure they'll sign a FA SP this winter with Lackey and Arrieta likely gone.

I think the scenario assumes that Wren still got fired, but the new front office decided to say the hell with it and try and win in 2015. So they assume a front office that didn't make a bunch of trades would approach the draft the same way and draft the same players.

Oddly in this scenario the front office still does make some rebuilding trades anyway.
 
Wren was a terrible GM for having a very talented ML roster who were young and mostly cost controlled, because he depleted the farm system

Epstein is the best GM of all time for having an extremely talented ML roster who are young and mostly cost controlled, despite depleting their farm system.

Lol, you are insane if you think the two teams were even remotely similar.

The Braves had Freeman, Simmons, Kimbrel, Gattis, JT, and Wood as the only stars under long term control. That's 6 players. And they had literally no one else in the minors that was close, save Pereza I guess (what an amazing talent he turned out to be).

Epstein also drafted, acquired via trade, and developed pretty much all his young, controllable talent as well, whereas Wren inherited the majority of his talent.

No where even in the galaxy of being similar.
 
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