Around the League 2020 Edition

also define "good value." if he's a 3-4 WAR guy he's basically getting paid right around market value, not good value.
even if we're (IMO) generous and extend that another 5 years...that leaves *6 more years* after that of $25M+.
stupid contract is stupid.
 
Super said:
also define "good value." if he's a 3-4 WAR guy he's basically getting paid right around market value, not good value.
even if we're (IMO) generous and extend that another 5 years...that leaves *6 more years* after that of $25M+.
stupid contract is stupid.
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He's a 4 win player with MVP upside. That's well worth 26m.

If you assume he has an average prime run, he figures to be a positive value for about five years.

after that, it becomes a question of how gracefully he ages, but 22m five years from now might well be the going rate for a 2 win player.

None of these mega deals ever really have a ton of trade value, but it generally isn't that hard to get off one if the player is still performing.
 
Southcack77 said:
He's a 4 win player with MVP upside. That's well worth 26m.

If you assume he has an average prime run, he figures to be a positive value for about five years.

after that, it becomes a question of how gracefully he ages, but 22m five years from now might well be the going rate for a 2 win player.

None of these mega deals ever really have a ton of trade value, but it generally isn't that hard to get off one if the player is still performing.
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MVP upside? hard disagree. that's pretty much gone. he's simply not that player anymore.
he's already a bad defender despite his blip last year.
i severely doubt that contract is going anywhere without the Phillies paying a lot of it.
 
Super said:
MVP upside? hard disagree. that's pretty much gone. he's simply not that player anymore.
he's already a bad defender despite his blip last year.
i severely doubt that contract is going anywhere without the Phillies paying a lot of it.
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I don't disagree with your main argument, but Harper has the power and on base skills to be in discussion for MVP every year. All he needs is a little BABIP boost like he had in 2015 and 2017 and he could win MVP. MVP voters don't generally are about defense.
 
Rosenthal: Twins outfielder Eddie Rosario is on outright waivers, sources tell The Athletic. The move is the clearest sign yet he will be non-tendered. Twins essentially giving him chance to be claimed by team that might pay him his projected arbitration salary of $9.6M.
 
Gotta ask, since I am not as tuned in as many of you. Why is Rosario being non-tendered if he is such a good option for the Braves or another team? Seems he would have some pretty good trade value?

Contract status?
 
mfree80 said:
Gotta ask, since I am not as tuned in as many of you. Why is Rosario being non-tendered if he is such a good option for the Braves or another team? Seems he would have some pretty good trade value?

Contract status?
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Set to make about $10 MM and Twins have two younger guys ready to plug in into LF (Kirilloff and Larnach). Rosario is a decent player although a bit on the inconsistent side. Terrible plate discipline. A bit of a nickel-brain.
 
Carp said:
I don't disagree with your main argument, but Harper has the power and on base skills to be in discussion for MVP every year. All he needs is a little BABIP boost like he had in 2015 and 2017 and he could win MVP. MVP voters don't generally are about defense.
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man, i just disagree. i mean it's possible, of course, but it's not like he's been some perennial MVP candidate in his career. sort of anyone can have BABIP luck and get into consideration.
 
Super said:
man, i just disagree. i mean it's possible, of course, but it's not like he's been some perennial MVP candidate in his career. sort of anyone can have BABIP luck and get into consideration.
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Last 4 years, he is averaging .394/.530/.924. That's pretty elite offensively. To put it into perspective, Freeman is averaging .400/.554/.954 over the same time frame. I'm not going to get into what his WAR is because, again, MVP voters don't typically care about defense. If Harper hits .300 (or there abouts) with the same power and BB rate, he is a front runner for MVP.
 
Carp said:
Last 4 years, he is averaging .394/.530/.924. That's pretty elite offensively. To put it into perspective, Freeman is averaging .400/.554/.954 over the same time frame. I'm not going to get into what his WAR is because, again, MVP voters don't typically care about defense. If Harper hits .300 (or there abouts) with the same power and BB rate, he is a front runner for MVP.
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in that same timeframe of 4 years, the NL MVPs have finished top-5 in fWAR.
all of the AL MVPs have as well.
same timeframe, ALL MVPs have finished top 5 in wRC+.
here's Harper's rankings in those 4 years:

2020 - 18th
2019 - 44th
2018 - 17th
2017 - 6th

being an all-around player is becoming increasingly important. to boot, Harper hasn't been close to the MVP level even just offensively since 2017.

and for fun, here are his fWAR finishes:

2020 - 40th
2019 - 26th
2018 - 50th
2017 - on pace for 7, which would have put him 4th

you could say a lot of guys are MVP contenders if they sport BABIPs well above their normal levels.
 
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Super said:
in that same timeframe of 4 years, the NL MVPs have finished top-5 in fWAR.
all of the AL MVPs have as well.
same timeframe, ALL MVPs have finished top 5 in wRC+.
here's Harper's rankings in those 4 years:

2020 - 18th
2019 - 44th
2018 - 17th
2017 - 6th

being an all-around player is becoming increasingly important. to boot, Harper hasn't been close to the MVP level even just offensively since 2017.

and for fun, here are his fWAR finishes:

2020 - 40th
2019 - 26th
2018 - 50th
2017 - on pace for 7, which would have put him 4th

you could say a lot of guys are MVP contenders if they sport BABIPs well above their normal levels.
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I'm constantly amazed how unremarkable his statistics are considering some of the huge games he's had against the Braves. He may just end up being an all time streaky hitter.

I have always hated his hitting mechanics. He's constantly tinkering with his leg kick to get his timing right. Its no wonder he struggles with consistency.
 
chop2chip said:
I'm constantly amazed how unremarkable his statistics are considering some of the huge games he's had against the Braves. He may just end up being an all time streaky hitter.

I have always hated his hitting mechanics. He's constantly tinkering with his leg kick to get his timing right. Its no wonder he struggles with consistency.
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He was third in xwOBA this season. 10-20 range the previous three years, more or less.

I'll stand by potential MVP and decent value at 26m. The contract gets bad like they all do though. I agree.

I think they could get off the thing if they wanted. Agree probably not for a great package.
 
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