Around The Majors 2019

I completely missed the Oakland Seattle opening series in toyko. Was I under a rock or was the advertisement horrible?
 
That's a good deal for the Red Sox that Bogaerts signed. Looks like about $6M per expected win. Bargain.
 
Enscheff said:
You didn’t mention the opt out.

The Red Sox will not be getting that type of rate if Xander opts in.
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The deal is good even with the opt out. Although that reduces its value some.

Its actually very likely he opts out. Something like an 80-90% probability.
 
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nsacpi said:
The deal is good even with the opt out. Although that reduces its value some.

Its actually very likely he opts out. Something like an 80-90% probability.
Click to expand...

While that 80-90% figure is completely arbitrary, what the Sox actually did was take in the risk of Xander collapsing in exchange for control over a couple FA years.

A similar opt out may be a way to get Acuna to sign. It pushes more risk to the team, but it may be the only way to get more prime seasons.
 
Enscheff said:
While that 80-90% figure is completely arbitrary, what the Sox actually did was take in the risk of Xander collapsing in exchange for control over a couple FA years.

A similar opt out may be a way to get Acuna to sign. It pushes more risk to the team, but it may be the only way to get more prime seasons.
Click to expand...



The opt out comes after 2022, which is Bogaerts age 30 season. What are the odds that Bogaerts performance declines so much that he won't be priced as a 2 win or better player for his 2023 and 2024 seasons? Even if he declines some by age 30, I think the odds are pretty high he will exceed the threshold for being priced at better than a 2 win player for his ages 31-32 season.
 
nsacpi said:
The opt out comes after 2022, which is Bogaerts age 30 season. What are the odds that Bogaerts performance declines so much that he won't be priced as a 2 win or better player for his 2023 and 2024 seasons? Even if he declines some by age 30, I think the odds are pretty high he will exceed the threshold for being priced at better than a 2 win player for his ages 31-32 season.
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I’m not sure why every discussion with you ends up being over semantics lately, but here goes...

A value can be arbitrary without being incorrect. Nowhere did I claim he was particularly likely to collapse, only that it’s a non-zero likelihood.

What’s not arbitrary is the fact the Red Sox took on additional risk by giving Xander the opt out. Taking on that additional risk may have been what allowed the extension to happen at all.

A similar opt out may be what it takes to get Acuna to extend.
 
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