Around The Majors 2019

Enscheff said:
How weird was his case of the yips in the playoffs?

My dream off season was Grandal, Brantley and someone like Asdrubel/Mous to share time at 3B with Camargo, plus at least 1 value add to the BP (not a 2-3 year deal).

The offense would have still been good, but my plan would have tied the Braves to Grandal and Brantley for 3-5 years each. Hard to say my ideas would have worked out any better/worse, but I would like Grandal to be a main target again this off season.
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McCann 2m
Donaldson 23m
Markakis 6m
Keuchel 13m

44m

Moustakos 10m
Brantley 17m (probably have to go to 3 years)
Grandal 18.25

45.2m


My idea would have been something like

Brantley 17m
Donaldson 23m
McCann 2m
Holland / Romo / Diekman 3m


Not sure you or I would have left enough money to sign Keuchel and upgrade bullpen, but it's hard to say.
 
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Enscheff said:
Camargo's xwOBA values the last 3 years have been:

2017 0.299
2018 0.310
2019 0.257

Those are not the marks of a .750+ OPS hitter. Those are the marks of a below average hitter (average being ~.320 xwOBA)...who was getting lucky.

Here are Camargo's xwOBA values vs LHP:

2017 0.372
2018 0.333
2019 0.250 (42 PAs)

Those are the marks of a guy who should be a .750-.800 OPS hitter vs LHP given enough PAs. He should be getting more PAs vs LHP right now, and it's unfortunate Snit allowed some early success by Markakis to derail an otherwise solid player deployment strategy.

And against RHP:

2017 0.269
2018 0.301
2019 0.261

Camargo is not a true talent .750+ hitter unless his PAs against RHP are severely limited. Considering there are about 2x as many PAs vs RHP and LHP, being good on the short side of a platoon limits Camargo's overall value.

I get it, folks think Camargo is great and simply needs more PAs because they saw a few hundred lucky PAs from him, and they like watching him throw lasers across the infield. Fact of the matter is the type of predictive data used by modern FOs tells us pretty conclusively he is not good enough to be an everyday player long term. I've been saying it for a long time now, and it's proving to be 100% accurate.

Camargo is a utility player who needs to be used mostly against LHP. Nothing more.
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I mean he's coming up on 1000 career PA's (which is a good enough sample size) and has a career line of.275/.334/.441. Maybe that's a little high, but I feel like he's close to that sort of hitter.
 
Carp said:
I mean he's coming up on 1000 career PA's (which is a good enough sample size) and has a career line of.275/.334/.441. Maybe that's a little high, but I feel like he's close to that sort of hitter.
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Which all adds up to him having a wRC+ of 104, meaning 4% better than league average...at 3B.

Over the last 3 seasons there have been 339 MLB players to accumulate 500+ PAs total. Of those 339 players, Camargo is the 6th "luckiest" in terms of wOBA - xwOBA.

Players who consistently outproduce their xwOBA tend to have a few qualities: LHH hitter (helps with infield singles and extra bases), fast (same reasoning as LHH), spray the ball around (harder to defend with shifts), and play in a hitter friendly park (see guys like Arenado appearing "lucky"), and pure dumb luck (guys get lucky).

So which of those qualities, or any other qualities, do you theorize allows Camargo to consistently out produce his xwOBA by more than almost any other MLB hitter?
 
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