Around The Majors 2019

thethe said:
This is a factual statement.

Parse out what you think it means in terms of did i mean he is an ace all you want.

Bumgarner is going into the hall and he is currently in his prime years.

Id sign him for 5 years easy this offseason. It seems pitchers are ageing well lately. I think once the player is 30 or over the pitvher is a safer investment than a hitter long term.
Click to expand...

Thethe. What are you doing man.
 
thethe said:
30 years old...has only ever had fluke injuries.

Showing again signs of being a good #2.

Absolutely serious
Click to expand...

And the fact that in his actual prime years his xwOBA was in the .270s, where as now its comfortably in the .320s (and steadily declining) doesn't concern you at all? Or the fact that his ERA and FIP have jumped up by nearly a full run doesn't concern you?

Bumgarner is the poster child for the pitcher aging curve. He is declining at an expected rate and has shown no signs of turning it around outside of this recent run of a few games, which is a ridiculously small sample. And you want to pay that declining pitcher through his age 35 season.

That wasn't the most shocking part of your post, though. The part that floored me was the notion that pitchers are currently aging better than hitters. That was a jaw dropper.
 
BeanieAntics said:
And the fact that in his actual prime years his xwOBA was in the .270s, where as now its comfortably in the .320s (and steadily declining) doesn't concern you at all? Or the fact that his ERA and FIP have jumped up by nearly a full run doesn't concern you?

Bumgarner is the poster child for the pitcher aging curve. He is declining at an expected rate and has shown no signs of turning it around outside of this recent run of a few games, which is a ridiculously small sample. And you want to pay that declining pitcher through his age 35 season.

That wasn't the most shocking part of your post, though. The part that floored me was the notion that pitchers are currently aging better than hitters. That was a jaw dropper.
Click to expand...

Filter through the leaderboards for fWar on hitters and you'll notice one commonality. They are mostly on the low side of 30. That is most certainly not the case with pitchers. So while of course injury risk is always higher the skill deterioration risk from what I can gather is lower. Therefore, I believe there is a different kind of risk when you compare pitchers and hitters over 30. No question about it on the low side of the 30 there is nothing more valuable than a stud hitter.
 
Last edited:
msstate7 said:
Please reply with one of my quotes where I was "acting like he's an ace". Thanks
Click to expand...

I said (in response to thethe):

Carp said:
And he's still not pitching like a 1\2 you act like he is.
Click to expand...


Then you replied:
msstate7 said:
He's been pretty dang good of late.

Last 8 starts:
K9 - 9.46
Bb9 - 1.97
Babip - .303
Era - 2.96
Fip - 3.26
Click to expand...

What was the point of that post if not to counter my argument of "And he's still not pitching like a 1\2 you act like he is"?
 
Carp said:
I said (in response to thethe):




Then you replied:


What was the point of that post if not to counter my argument of "And he's still not pitching like a 1\2 you act like he is"?
Click to expand...

I see. Guess I never thought bumgarner was a 1/2, so didn't see how someone could mistake me thinking that. To be clear, I don't think bumgarner is a 1/2, but I do think he'd be a big boost to our rotation anyway
 
thethe said:
This is a factual statement.

Parse out what you think it means in terms of did i mean he is an ace all you want.

Bumgarner is going into the hall and he is currently in his prime years.

Id sign him for 5 years easy this offseason. It seems pitchers are ageing well lately. I think once the player is 30 or over the pitvher is a safer investment than a hitter long term.
Click to expand...

LOL...

It will be hilarious watching how this statement ages haha.
 
msstate7 said:
I see. Guess I never thought bumgarner was a 1/2, so didn't see how someone could mistake me thinking that. To be clear, I don't think bumgarner is a 1/2, but I do think he'd be a big boost to our rotation anyway
Click to expand...

I agree with that. I'd love to have him if the cost is no more than a Weigel/Wentz/Ynoa type.
 
thethe said:
Filter through the leaderboards for fWar on hitters and you'll notice one commonality. They are mostly on the low side of 30. That is most certainly not the case with pitchers. So while of course injury risk is always higher the skill deterioration risk from what I can gather is lower. Therefore, I believe there is a different kind of risk when you compare pitchers and hitters over 30. No question about it on the low side of the 30 there is nothing more valuable than a stud hitter.
Click to expand...

Using the top 5% of players to point to some sort of trend probably isn't the best way to evaluate the aging curve for players in general. Its also true that a pitcher's velocity starts on a steady decline VERY early on in their career. There are some unicorns out there who either buck that trend or figure out ways to mitigate their physical decline, but those guys are exceedingly rare. Madison Bumgarner isn't one of those unicorns. Madison Bumgarner isn't even close to the top 5% in the league anymore. The fact of the matter is that he hasn't had an xwOBA under .300 since 2016, its trending in the wrong way, and his statistics have reflected it over a longer period of time than just his past 6 starts.

He isn't in his prime and he is obviously declining. That doesn't mean he is useless to us, but it does mean that we shouldn't value him as a "HoF pitcher in his prime" when talking about trade scenarios. It also means that, under no circumstance, should we offer him a deal that carries him through his age 35 season. That would be insanity of the highest order.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Using the top 5% of players to point to some sort of trend probably isn't the best way to evaluate the aging curve for players in general. Its also true that a pitcher's velocity starts on a steady decline VERY early on in their career. There are some unicorns out there who either buck that trend or figure out ways to mitigate their physical decline, but those guys are exceedingly rare. Madison Bumgarner isn't one of those unicorns. Madison Bumgarner isn't even close to the top 5% in the league anymore. The fact of the matter is that he hasn't had an xwOBA under .300 since 2016, its trending in the wrong way, and his statistics have reflected it over a longer period of time than just his past 6 starts.

He isn't in his prime and he is obviously declining. That doesn't mean he is useless to us, but it does mean that we shouldn't value him as a "HoF pitcher in his prime" when talking about trade scenarios. It also means that, under no circumstance, should we offer him a deal that carries him through his age 35 season. That would be insanity of the highest order.
Click to expand...

All im saying is the argument against a pitcher over 30 is not as strong as a hitter. The past few years have shown us this. If you can command your pitvhes you will stay effective.
 
thethe said:
All im saying is the argument against a pitcher over 30 is not as strong as a hitter. The past few years have shown us this. If you can command your pitvhes you will stay effective.
Click to expand...

Lol... can you please address the Harper is better than Trout comment? It’s been brought up a ton but you refuse to respond to it and I’m looking forward to hearing you address it
 
thethe said:
All im saying is the argument against a pitcher over 30 is not as strong as a hitter. The past few years have shown us this. If you can command your pitvhes you will stay effective.
Click to expand...

No, thats not all your saying. You specifically argued that it would be a good idea to give Madison Bumgarner a contract that would carry him through his age 35 season.

Besides, I don't even understand where the hitter/pitcher aging curve debate developed. I think that most people can agree that multi year contracts to any 30+ year old player is almost always a bad idea.
 
zbhargrove said:
Lol... can you please address the Harper is better than Trout comment? It’s been brought up a ton but you refuse to respond to it and I’m looking forward to hearing you address it
Click to expand...

thethe was right about Gattis and no one can take that away from him
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jaw
zbhargrove said:
Lol... can you please address the Harper is better than Trout comment? It’s been brought up a ton but you refuse to respond to it and I’m looking forward to hearing you address it
Click to expand...

Ive addressed it numerous times and accpunted for my error in judgement.
 
BeanieAntics said:
No, thats not all your saying. You specifically argued that it would be a good idea to give Madison Bumgarner a contract that would carry him through his age 35 season.

Besides, I don't even understand where the hitter/pitcher aging curve debate developed. I think that most people can agree that multi year contracts to any 30+ year old player is almost always a bad idea.
Click to expand...

And the fact that pitchers age more gracefully make me more willing to give a long term deal to a 30 year old.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top