Around the Majors - 2022 Version

The Braves are probably a better true talent team than the Mets, but probably not 9 wins better. Barring another fairly epic collapse by the Mets, the division should be theirs.

If they just bumble around and go 53-53 ROS, they still win 90 games and the Braves have to go 62-45 just to catch them.
 
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Enscheff said:
The Braves are probably a better true talent team than the Mets, but probably not 9 wins better. Barring another fairly epic collapse by the Mets, the division should be theirs.

If they just bumble around and go 53-53 ROS, they still win 90 games and the Braves have to go 62-45 just to catch them.
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Hopefully it ends up like the 2019 season, where we had built up the huge lead on the Nationals, only for them to come storming back in the 2nd half, but came up just short by a few games for the division title. They ended up carrying that hot streak into the playoffs. We all know what happened to the Braves that year in the playoffs.
 
Enscheff said:
The Braves are probably a better true talent team than the Mets, but probably not 9 wins better. Barring another fairly epic collapse by the Mets, the division should be theirs.

If they just bumble around and go 53-53 ROS, they still win 90 games and the Braves have to go 62-45 just to catch them.
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agreed.. if Max and DeGrom come back and are anything like themselves, then I don't see any way the Braves can catch them. If they don't and the Braves can't figure out Morton and Soroka can't contribute, then I don't see any way they can catch them. It will take a perfect set of circumstances for the Braves to go on a run to catch them. Butttt it is the Mets and the Braves with effective Fried, Morton, Wright and Soroka is a very scary team.
 
thewupk said:
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2021-06-06&dateDelta=

Braves were 28-29 on June 6th last year. Mets were 30-23.

Win Division:
Mets 76.3%
Braves 14.4%

Make Playoffs
Mets 82.2%
Braves 24.9%

The extra wild card really increases the chances of getting to the playoffs. If there was still only 2 WC teams then the Braves odds at the playoffs are likely similar to last season at this point.

Also the Braves are currently projected to have a higher WP than the Mets for the rest of the season. But with a 1/3rd of the season already gone the Mets have banked a really good lead. I can easily see a situation where their offensive luck turns and they struggle at different points the rest of the way. But in the end, making the playoffs is the ultimate goal.
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It's pretty crazy to me that the NL playoff picture was pretty much set from the start of the season, and it's pretty much worked out exactly as expected. Right now it looks like the Braves will just have to be better than the Cardinals or Giants to get in. Unfortunately the Cardinals have the weakest division and easiest schedule.
 
I worry about the NLC getting a WC b/c the division sucks and it will suck more when those teams sell.

And I worry that the west could have 2 WC teams b/c the Giants and Padres seem that good. Hopefully the Rockies and Dbacks won't be horrible and those teams will beat each other up somewhat.

The Braves should make the playoffs, but it is frustrating to not be better at this point.
 
NYCBrave said:
Hopefully it ends up like the 2019 season, where we had built up the huge lead on the Nationals, only for them to come storming back in the 2nd half, but came up just short by a few games for the division title. They ended up carrying that hot streak into the playoffs. We all know what happened to the Braves that year in the playoffs.
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I hate the expanded playoffs, but I hope it helps us this year.

We won it last year. I don't think we were the best team, but it was nice to win it last year. Too many times the Braves have lost when I thought they were the better team.

If we get in, it will be really fun to defend the title. And as long as we have our key guys (Fried, Acuna, Riley, etc) I expect us to be a much better team at the end of the year than we were at the beginning of this year or even last year.
 
Looking at some possible cheap upgrades, and one guy I like is Whit Merrifield. Yes, I know he's been really bad, but his batted ball stats seem to be either the same, or better, than years past, suggesting he may just be getting really unlucky. If he is cheap enough, he could be worth a gamble. He provides positional flexibility as well.
 
Carp said:
Looking at some possible cheap upgrades, and one guy I like is Whit Merrifield. Yes, I know he's been really bad, but his batted ball stats seem to be either the same, or better, than years past, suggesting he may just be getting really unlucky. If he is cheap enough, he could be worth a gamble. He provides positional flexibility as well.
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I don't know how he's playing this year, but he's a guy I've like for a while. Cheap contract even if he is owed money next year. IMO would be an ideal guy to have the bench b/c of his positional versatility. In a world of DH and not a lot of subs, it would be good to have a guy like that on the roster. If you think he can be a guy around a 750 OPS.
 
Carp said:
Looking at some possible cheap upgrades, and one guy I like is Whit Merrifield. Yes, I know he's been really bad, but his batted ball stats seem to be either the same, or better, than years past, suggesting he may just be getting really unlucky. If he is cheap enough, he could be worth a gamble. He provides positional flexibility as well.
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I think you are seeing age decline and I would be weary of him.. He was always a guy who did several things well but nothing exceptional. While he still might be valuable, I wouldn't want to give up anything of real value for him.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I think you are seeing age decline and I would be weary of him.. He was always a guy who did several things well but nothing exceptional. While he still might be valuable, I wouldn't want to give up anything of real value for him.
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So basically all the outfielder trades AA made for the deadline last year. Giving up nothing of value.
 
The Chosen One said:
So basically all the outfielder trades AA made for the deadline last year. Giving up nothing of value.
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yes, he probably is a target given his very low BAiP.. buy low canidate in hopes to strike lighting in a bottle. could slot him in the leadoff or behind Ronnie and you would have terror on the bases with speed.


Did I just talk myself into this guy...
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I think you are seeing age decline and I would be weary of him.. He was always a guy who did several things well but nothing exceptional. While he still might be valuable, I wouldn't want to give up anything of real value for him.
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Agree. I'd be looking at something like Ynoa and Davidson.

Next year I think he has a base of like 2 million and a lot of incentives. So he'd be ok to have around even if he's just providing the value of Arcia.
 
msstate7 said:
Mets 3-0 after 1. They're just a BA team apparently
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Padres are prime candidate for another collapse like last year. They are 18th in position player fWAR at 5.8. Machado has nearly 2/3's of that himself at 3.5. Their pitching is great so far but how will that last? They need Tatis back in a bad way.
 
Man, the Angels have lost 12 straight - 27-17 to 27-29. I think it was clear part of their record was a mirage but this is absurd.
 
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