Austin Riley Apology Thread

nsacpi said:
May vs June numbers:

BABIP: .452 vs .200
ISO: .390 vs .167
K Rate: 33.3 vs 34.1
BB Rate: 4.8 vs 2.3

Regression came fast. What the BABIP gods giveth the BABIP gods taketh away.

Matt Joyce in left field tonight?
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HR/FB%: 46.7% vs 15.4%

He obviously won't sustain the .200 BABIP any more than he was going to sustain .452, but the other numbers aren't that flukey.

Until/unless Riley makes whatever adjustment is needed to correct those K/BB numbers that were terrible even when he was getting lucky, he will be a fringe MLB player.

His severe problem with swinging and missing pitches in the zone is very worrisome, and I'm not sure if that aspect of the hit tool is something that can be fixed.
 
Tapate50 said:
I think some folks may need to check their opinions at the door, ya boys 2/2 2nite!
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Or we can continue to look at the actual data...

If everyone agrees that Riley's main issues are swinging at bad pitches (O-Swing%) and missing pitches in the zone (Z-Contact%), we should be hoping those stats improve.

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.as...t=2019&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=

Everyone sees what they want to see in charts like these, but I see his Z-Contact% fluctuating around 73%, his O-Swing% fluctuating around 40%, and his OPS leveling off around .750-.800 as the luck faded.

That would be the worst Z-Contact%, and bottom 10 O-Swing% among all 156 qualified MLB hitters.

There are serious red flags with Riley, and hopefully he can continue making adjustments to fix these issues.
 
Enscheff said:
Or we can continue to look at the actual data...

If everyone agrees that Riley's main issues are swinging at bad pitches (O-Swing%) and missing pitches in the zone (Z-Contact%), we should be hoping those stats improve.

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.as...art=2019&end=2019&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=

Everyone sees what they want to see in charts like these, but I see his Z-Contact% fluctuating around 73%, his O-Swing% fluctuating around 40%, and his OPS leveling off around .750-.800 as the luck faded.

That would be the worst Z-Contact%, and bottom 10 O-Swing% among all 156 qualified MLB hitters.

There are serious red flags with Riley, and hopefully he can continue making adjustments to fix these issues.
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Yeesh. Tough crowd.
 
Enscheff said:
Or we can continue to look at the actual data...

If everyone agrees that Riley's main issues are swinging at bad pitches (O-Swing%) and missing pitches in the zone (Z-Contact%), we should be hoping those stats improve.

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.as...t=2019&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=

Everyone sees what they want to see in charts like these, but I see his Z-Contact% fluctuating around 73%, his O-Swing% fluctuating around 40%, and his OPS leveling off around .750-.800 as the luck faded.

That would be the worst Z-Contact%, and bottom 10 O-Swing% among all 156 qualified MLB hitters.

There are serious red flags with Riley, and hopefully he can continue making adjustments to fix these issues.
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One thing that seems constant in write ups and audio from prospect people is that Riley is expected to improve. Riley has consistently improved. The last pipeline podcast talked about his K rate and how Riley always gets better. If you listen to Riley talk about hitting it's like listening to Soroka talk about pitching.

My concern with Riley's ceiling is physical. How much of his swing and miss is due to a physical issue like a lack of bat speed. He's also super slow at 22 and we will see how he ages.

I think the guy will slug 500. I'm just curious if he can get keep the OBP in the 333 range and if he can be average or better at 3B over 150+ games.
 
Russ2dollas said:
One thing that seems constant in write ups and audio from prospect people is that Riley is expected to improve. Riley has consistently improved. The last pipeline podcast talked about his K rate and how Riley always gets better. If you listen to Riley talk about hitting it's like listening to Soroka talk about pitching.

My concern with Riley's ceiling is physical. How much of his swing and miss is due to a physical issue like a lack of bat speed. He's also super slow at 22 and we will see how he ages.

I think the guy will slug 500. I'm just curious if he can get keep the OBP in the 333 range and if he can be average or better at 3B over 150+ games.
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You are right. He is slow with the bat-speed, he misses a a lot by being slow, but it will be better with because all hitters need to adjust.
 
Enscheff said:
Or we can continue to look at the actual data...

If everyone agrees that Riley's main issues are swinging at bad pitches (O-Swing%) and missing pitches in the zone (Z-Contact%), we should be hoping those stats improve.

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.as...t=2019&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=

Everyone sees what they want to see in charts like these, but I see his Z-Contact% fluctuating around 73%, his O-Swing% fluctuating around 40%, and his OPS leveling off around .750-.800 as the luck faded.

That would be the worst Z-Contact%, and bottom 10 O-Swing% among all 156 qualified MLB hitters.

There are serious red flags with Riley, and hopefully he can continue making adjustments to fix these issues.
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But....he hits dingers?
 
Enscheff said:
Or we can continue to look at the actual data...

If everyone agrees that Riley's main issues are swinging at bad pitches (O-Swing%) and missing pitches in the zone (Z-Contact%), we should be hoping those stats improve.

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.as...art=2019&end=2019&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=

Everyone sees what they want to see in charts like these, but I see his Z-Contact% fluctuating around 73%, his O-Swing% fluctuating around 40%, and his OPS leveling off around .750-.800 as the luck faded.

That would be the worst Z-Contact%, and bottom 10 O-Swing% among all 156 qualified MLB hitters.

There are serious red flags with Riley, and hopefully he can continue making adjustments to fix these issues.
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Here's a red flag for ya - he's a rookie.

Btw, he' setting rookie hitting records, and yes, he still has flaws. I'd say that's pretty good.
 
Anecdotally, his rookie season is eerily similar to Hack’s, which is scary.

I think he’s more than capable of sustain an iso slugging in the .250-.350 range. So if he can simply hit above .250 and get on base at a .330 clip he should be fine.

I’m honestly much less worried about the walk rate than I am the strikeouts. I care less about a high strikeout rate if it’s a result of a guy drawing a lot of pitches. If he can’t learn to consistently hit pitches in the zone and/or lay off balls outside of the strike zone than he’s going to be prone to extended slumps.
 
I'm pretty much just going to keep my eye on his O-Swing% and Z-Contact%.

If he makes improvements in those areas everything else will be there (and pretty much is there already) to make him a middle of the order bat with just enough defense to be a real asset.

If he keeps being among the worst in the league at swinging at bad pitches and missing pitches in the zone, he's going to have serious problems sticking at the MLB level.
 
Enscheff said:
I'm pretty much just going to keep my eye on his O-Swing% and Z-Contact%.

If he makes improvements in those areas everything else will be there (and pretty much is there already) to make him a middle of the order bat with just enough defense to be a real asset.

If he keeps being among the worst in the league at swinging at bad pitches and missing pitches in the zone, he's going to have serious problems sticking at the MLB level.
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My thoughts exactly.

If the right type of player was available at the deadline, he’s honestly the epitome of a “sell high” young player. He could be the centerpiece to bring back a controllable young superstar. The Braves could then use their payroll this offseason to sign Rendon or Donaldson.

Or we could wait to see if Riley can make the adjustments you are referring to. If he can do that then he’s going to be a great asset.
 
https://www.mlb.com/news/braves-lineup-deepest-in-national-league

Riley, Freeman, Inciarte, and Donaldson have all more or less "earned" what they've put up so far. It's not a guarantee that they'll continue to do so, but they haven't been helped or hurt by good luck or bad defense or anything like it. That's great news if you like watching Riley and Freeman mash; it's less great if you're concerned about what Inciarte can offer, especially since 2018 was his weakest hitting season in Atlanta to begin with.
 
chop2chip said:
My thoughts exactly.

If the right type of player was available at the deadline, he’s honestly the epitome of a “sell high” young player. He could be the centerpiece to bring back a controllable young superstar. The Braves could then use their payroll this offseason to sign Rendon or Donaldson.

Or we could wait to see if Riley can make the adjustments you are referring to. If he can do that then he’s going to be a great asset.
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I think Riley is young enough that I’d like to see the Braves take the chance on helping him figure out his contact issues. As is he’s probably a .750-.800 true talent hitter that can handle 3b competently, which is nothing to sneeze at for league minimum. Then his upside goes up from there as the contact issues improve even a little bit.

I’ve consistently been the low man around here on Riley, but just like with Fried, I see enough there to be hesitant to trade him. Every other team is well aware of the contact issues, so it’s not like any GM is dumb enough to miss the red flags.

They can still spend cash in the OF and/or C.
 
Enscheff said:
I think Riley is young enough that I’d like to see the Braves take the chance on helping him figure out his contact issues. As is he’s probably a .750-.800 true talent hitter, which is nothing to sneeze at for league minimum. Then his upside goes up from there as the contact issues improve even a little bit.

I’ve consistently been the low man around here on Riley, but just like with Fried, I see enough there to be hesitant to trade him. Every other team is well aware of the contact issues, so it’s not like any GM is dumb enough to miss the red flags.
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Jack Clark/Dave Kingman

But he could be a Bob Horner, when he recognize pitches.

But no Gorman Thomas which he is doing now.
 
AerchAngel said:
Jack Clark/Dave Kingman

But he could be a Bob Horner, when he recognize pitches.

But no Gorman Thomas which he is doing now.
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He doesn’t walk nearly enough or make enough contact to be Clark (who was an underrated hitter in his day), but Kingman is a decent comp for what he actually is now. All that power, but the contact limited his value to that of an average MLB player.
 
Enscheff said:
He doesn’t walk nearly enough or make enough contact to be Clark (who was an underrated hitter in his day), but Kingman is a decent comp for what he actually is now. All that power, but the contact limited his value to that of an average MLB player.
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I know he won't be Horner, he needs to adjust to what you said, contact in the zone and Horner was one of the best.

Like I said, he needs some more coaching. He is doing well for now, but we need better.
 
I watch the Cubs and been to Wrigley Field A LOT because my family lives in Chicago so I know. Old Comiskey Park, I been there so many times it is not funny, my dad rather go there. I was at the game for Bueller's Day Off. Braves kicked their ass.


And WGN was our main channel like TBS.
 
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