Austin Riley Apology Thread

nsacpi said:
I don't think we have seen Riley's max exit velocity. Lamb was drafted as a college player and was a bit older by the time he reached the majors. To me Riley is still a raw young player who has just had a very hot/lucky streak to start his career. But his age and minor league record point to a fairly good chance of success. I would be willing to bet his two best seasons exceed Lamb's two best seasons.
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While I agree Riley is not a finished product, max exit velocities are a lot like FA velocity and typically decline immediately.

Riley will almost certainly improve his plate discipline numbers, and by extension is K and BB numbers. I wouldn't bet on him improving his exit velocities much, if at all.

I could definitely see Riley streak his way to a 3 win season that's better than anything Lamb has done (his first 50 PAs may have positioned him to beat 2.5 wins this year), but that doesn't make him appreciably better.
 
That first AB vs Archer was awful. Swung at the first 5 pitches or more and watched a center cut FB (low) for strike 3.
 
Still looks like the 250/300/500 hitter I thought he was.

Still curious on the d at third.

He had shown the ability at each level to adjust and grow. I like how he talks the game. I think there could be more obp and maybe a tad more avg.
 
We identified a RHH OFer as a need before the season started. They tried to fill that spot with Duvall, Camargo and now Riley.

RHH OFer might be on the shopping list at the deadline just below a BP arm.
 
Enscheff said:
We identified a RHH OFer as a need before the season started. They tried to fill that spot with Duvall, Camargo and now Riley.

RHH OFer might be on the shopping list at the deadline just below a BP arm.
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You buying hunter pence as real?
 
nsacpi said:
He should be able to bring that K rate down to around 25%. Maybe not this year but within a year or two. Part of the natural improvement of a young hitter. With his power, he can be a productive player with a 25% K rate. Not so sure with a 30% K rate. The hot start obscured some things about his game that are becoming more clear.
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Sure. My point was more aimed toward this season. It's really hard to predict how players will adjust and improve over the years, especially very young players like Riley. But I feel pretty confident the K rate and BB rate aren't likely to see dramatic improvement over the rest of 2019. Maybe 2-3 percent at most.
 
Enscheff said:
We identified a RHH OFer as a need before the season started. They tried to fill that spot with Duvall, Camargo and now Riley.

RHH OFer might be on the shopping list at the deadline just below a BP arm.
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I'd like to see Duvall first. May be he's figured it out in Gwinnett. If he can be the player he was pre-2018, he'd be a huge boost.
 
I think we need to see if Riley can adjust to the league adjusting and then get a better look at our own internal OF options before looking outside the organization. We’re going to be feeling a roster crunch as is when Ender comes back.
 
Its almost like our concerns in the underlying statistics are coming true... imagine that. Now let's how quick/if he can adjust.
 
May vs June numbers:

BABIP: .452 vs .200
ISO: .390 vs .167
K Rate: 33.3 vs 34.1
BB Rate: 4.8 vs 2.3

Regression came fast. What the BABIP gods giveth the BABIP gods taketh away.

Matt Joyce in left field tonight?
 
nsacpi said:
May vs June numbers:

BABIP: .452 vs .200
ISO: .390 vs .167
K Rate: 33.3 vs 34.1
BB Rate: 4.8 vs 2.3

Regression came fast. What the BABIP gods giveth the BABIP gods taketh away.

Matt Joyce in left field tonight?
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I would consider resting him but not because of those numbers. I liked his approach his last two at bats. The ball got deeper to him and he swung at pitches and not at guesses. I would like him continue to adjust and work through this. That said we all know how I feel about rest and would not hesitate sitting him to get a bench guy in the game.
 
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