Braves acquire RHP Touki Toussaint & Bronson Arroyo for Filthy Phil Gosselin

Prospects who are clear top 100 guys:

Peraza

Wisler

Abies

Toussaint

Folty (if still considered a prospect)

Prospects who could be top 100 guys, or who will be pretty close:

Jenkins

Davidson

Banuelos

Prospects who have at least a shot at being in the top 100 a year from now, in addition to the above 3:

Peterson

Mallex Smith

Ruiz

Sanchez

Sims

Allard

Prospect who will again be top 100 once healthy:

Fried
 
^wowza

Edit: I'd think Mallex has a shot to move up and maybe hit 100 or better... His last two years have been damn impressive
 
Tapate50 said:
^wowza

Edit: I'd think Mallex has a shot to move up and maybe hit 100 or better... His last two years have been damn impressive
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Yeah, I'm not sure what else a guy can do to show he's a premier leadoff prospect. All he's done is post a .400 OBP and lead the world in SBs the last couple seasons, while being young for his level.
 
smootness said:
Prospects who are clear top 100 guys:
Peraza
Wisler
Abies
Toussaint
Folty (if still considered a prospect)

Prospects who could be top 100 guys, or who will be pretty close:
Jenkins
Davidson
Banuelos

Prospects who have at least a shot at being in the top 100 a year from now, in addition to the above 3:
Peterson
Mallex Smith
Ruiz
Sanchez
Sims
Allard

Prospect who will again be top 100 once healthy:
Fried
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Probably a little optimistic, but definitely promising. Albies is probably a year of good play shy of being top 100. I don't think Folty is a clear top 100 guy. Jenkins probably won't be close.

I still would consider Ruiz as close despite the tough year. Mallex will probably be clear top 100. Don't think Davidson is top 100, but he's moving in a positive direction. Peterson has kind of tailed off a bit late; hopefully just a little slump.
 
Dave Cameron approaches the trade from Arizona's perspective trying to justify the trade, but ultimately questions TLR and Stew's sanity:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/touki-toussaint-and-prospect-valuation/

Some interesting points he makes regarding Touki that are a bit of a boner killer. He makes the assertion that Arizona may have sold Touki because they think he has already peaked in value. Interesting to debate, but I don't think Touki is the type of prospect that you can evaluate based solely on production at this point.

There is a really good chance that Touki never breaks out and we may look back and question why we gave Arizona 10M for the guy. But I would have to think the expected value has to far exceed that amount considering the value of a potential frontline starter that is cost controlled even if there is only a 10% that ever happens.
 
chop2chip said:
Dave Cameron approaches the trade from Arizona's perspective trying to justify the trade, but ultimately questions TLR and Stew's sanity:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/touki-toussaint-and-prospect-valuation/

Some interesting points he makes regarding Touki that are a bit of a boner killer. He makes the assertion that Arizona may have sold Touki because they think he has already peaked in value. Interesting to debate, but I don't think Touki is the type of prospect that you can evaluate based solely on production at this point.

There is a really good chance that Touki never breaks out and we may look back and question why we gave Arizona 10M for the guy. But I would have to think the expected value has to far exceed that amount considering the value of a potential frontline starter that is cost controlled even if there is only a 10% that ever happens.
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if his value is at it's peak, they certainly did not get a peak return.
 
I just got done reading that as well, Chop. The part that surprised me was the roughly 90% bust rate for pitchers in the 90-100 range. I knew it was high, but wow.
 
gilesfan said:
Probably a little optimistic, but definitely promising. Albies is probably a year of good play shy of being top 100. I don't think Folty is a clear top 100 guy. Jenkins probably won't be close.

I still would consider Ruiz as close despite the tough year. Mallex will probably be clear top 100. Don't think Davidson is top 100, but he's moving in a positive direction. Peterson has kind of tailed off a bit late; hopefully just a little slump.
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I'm not convinced Smith is top 100. I think the criticisms levied against him have not been answered (defense and his contact/hit tool). In fact, I'm far more convinced that Albies/Davidson will make the top 100 than any of our other hitting prospects. Peraza is a shoe in if he's not called up before then, and perhaps if Rio continues hitting like he has this month, but I generally think most of our quality hitting prospects are too low in the minors to gain any attention.

That doesn't mean we don't have the talent because we have it in spades. Only that that talent is too far away to warrant the attention that higher probability prospects will attain.
 
gilesfan said:
I just got done reading that as well, Chop. The part that surprised me was the roughly 90% bust rate for pitchers in the 90-100 range. I knew it was high, but wow.
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I just kept thinking to myself "Sims. Sims. Sims." The entire time.

By the time a pitching prospect is exceeding at AA we can comfortably predict that they will contribute in some meaningful way, but those lower rank guys are a dime a dozen.
 
yeezus said:
if his value is at it's peak, they certainly did not get a peak return.
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No question. It must feel awful as a Diamondback fan that the only upside to this deal is if Touki Flames out and you get to celebrate your owner pocketing an extra 10M.
 
I also don't think you can judge a trade like this strictly on results. TT is a valuable piece right now whether he becomes anything or not. I can't help but think they could have received something more useful than $10MM for him.
 
chop2chip said:
No question. It must feel awful as a Diamondback fan that the only upside to this deal is if Touki Flames out and you get to celebrate your owner pocketing an extra 10M.
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There is talk they are going to acquire a starter with that money.
 
gilesfan said:
Next year or in the future?
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Next year. I think Albies is a shoe in and Braxton should crack the top 100. Perhaps not every list, but a few of them.

The true borderline prospects are Ruiz and Peterson. Peterson based off lack of track record and Ruiz based off struggling in AA. I think if Ruiz was struggling like this in AAA, but had succeeded in AA that he would get a pass, but I think the AA promotion is a strong litmus test of legitimacy.
 
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