Braves donate Justin Upton to Padres for prospects

nsacpi said:
We have spent some money on the offense this offseason (Markakis, Callaspo, Toscano). There are a lot of different ways to build a winning team, and at the same time no magic formula.
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Yes, l but the point is, there isn't enough remaining cash to fix the offense as needed. Unless govs, plan is to sign a 5th starter and go to war with the current team and say to hell with fixing the offense.

Even if we signed Scherzer for the 5th spot, I'd say this team as currently constructed is still a long shot for the playoffs.
 
nsacpi said:
Why would adding Johnson to the mix be attractive for the Padres when the guy they have to play third (Solarte): 1) was better than Johnson in 2014, 2) projects to be better than Johnson in 2015, and 3) costs much less.

I can see why adding him to the trade is attractive to us. But it doesn't add anything for the other team.

In this hypothetical trade we are sending them a one-year rental and a player with a contract that brings his net value down to zero. It simply doesn't add up looking at it from their perspective.
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It's not a question of what's "attractive" for the Padres in the end - we have the player THEY want. This has been Hart's point all along.

IF we couldn't move Johnson I see absolutely no reason we'd be interested in Gyorko as part of a return, and while I'm higher on Ross than several posters I agree that he's not enough for Justin alone. Gyorko isn't particularly attractive when you realize he's owed just as much money as Johnson - just over a longer period of time.

Jedd Gyorko 2b
6 years/$35.5109M (2014-19), plus 2020 option

6 years/$35.5109M (2014-19), plus 2020 club option
signed extension with San Diego 4/14/14
14:$0.5109M, 15:$2M, 16:$4M, 17:$6M, 18:$9M, 19:$13M, 20:$13M club option ($1M buyout)
2020 option may increase by $2M and buyout may increase by $0.75M based on All-Star selections and top 10 finishes in MVP vote, 2014-19
perks: suite on road

Chris Johnson 3b
3 years/$23.5M (2015-17), plus 2018 option

3 years/$23.5M (2015-17), plus 2018 option

3 years/$23.5M (2015-17), plus 2018 club option
signed extension with Atlanta 5/2/14
15:$6M, 16:7.5M, 17:$9M, 18:$10M club option ($1M buyout)

Gyorko's in Spangenberg's way IF they don't move one to 3B. The trade I mentioned would mean that San Diego gets 1 year of Justin (and a shorter exposure to Gyorko) and a 1st Round pick for $7,200,000.

Upton - $14,500,000
Johnson - $6,000,000

Smith - $6,000,000
Ross - $5,700,000
Gyorko - $2,000,000

If Justin does walk following this season, they've got Liriano and Hunter Renfroe waiting in the wings.
 
Looking at what the Padres have to offer I am intrigued by Cory Spangenburg. I think he is a good bet to be at least an average hitter. What makes that so useful is that he can play 3b,2b, cf, and can even fill in at ss. He's like a lefty Prado with a little more speed. Worst case he fills the platoon role with CJ which should give us a very productive 3b platoon.
 
Spangenberg in 304 AB's in AA in 2014: .331/.365/.470

Kubitza in 529 AB's in AA in 2014: .295/.405/.470

Both were in their age 23 seasons. Spangenberg played in San Antonio in the Texas League. I believe both of those are more favorable hitting environments that what Kubitza had.
 
nsacpi said:
I have reason to believe this doesn't make sense for the Pads. They are retooling and unlikely to contend in 2015. Does a one-year rental make sense? Would it make sense for a team like them to trade an asset they would have under control for multiple years for a one-year rental? Also they currently have Kemp, Quentin and Seth Smith at the corner outfield spots.
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Giants are worse than last year, Dbacks could easily be too... So with a few moves how are they unlikely to contend?
 
cajunrevenge said:
Looking at what the Padres have to offer I am intrigued by Cory Spangenburg. I think he is a good bet to be at least an average hitter. What makes that so useful is that he can play 3b,2b, cf, and can even fill in at ss. He's like a lefty Prado with a little more speed. Worst case he fills the platoon role with CJ which should give us a very productive 3b platoon.
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That's the rub IMO - I don't think they'd give up Spangenberg in an Upton deal. If they would give up Ross and Spangenberg I'd personally take them and Smith's contract back for Justin and ride Johnson's deal out. Pure speculation on my part but my guess is that they'd prefer to get rid of the Gyorko commitment, therefore Hart would stand firm on ridding us of Johnson.
 
FWIW, the platoons for 2015 would project to be very productive...

LF
Smith - .277/.358/.481/.839 vs. RHP
Gattis - .343/.356/.614/.970 vs. LHP

3B
Johnson - .312/.349/.443/.792 vs. LHP
Spangenberg - .324/.360/.427/.827 vs. RHP (2014 AA)

That ought to be enough to keep us "respectable" (if nothing else) in 2015, and would buy the full season for Peraza to percolate in the minors while potentially moving to CF. As nsacpi mentioned, Kubitza could become Johnson's platoon partner in 2017 and Spangenberg could move back to 2B giving us a CF at the minimum to replace B. J. while leaving Uggla's money to bid on Justin. If you backloaded Justin's deal a bit, the 2017 lineup could look like...

CF- Peraza, RF- Markakis, LF- Justin, 1B- Freeman, C- Gattis, 2B- Spangenberg, 3B- Johnson/Kubitza, SS- Simba

with a righty masher in Smith and lefty masher in Johnson on the bench. Gattis could get extra ABs in LF by sliding Justin over to RF at times to keep Markakis healthy.
 
nsacpi said:
We have spent some money on the offense this offseason (Markakis, Callaspo, Toscano). There are a lot of different ways to build a winning team, and at the same time no magic formula.
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The next time there's a need to overstate the obvious, we know who to call.
 
nsacpi said:
I have reason to believe this doesn't make sense for the Pads. They are retooling and unlikely to contend in 2015. Does a one-year rental make sense? Would it make sense for a team like them to trade an asset they would have under control for multiple years for a one-year rental? Also they currently have Kemp, Quentin and Seth Smith at the corner outfield spots.
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The Padres have made noise that they want to go for it this year, so I think they'll entertain a rental. Is it a good idea for them? Probably not. Nor was the Kemp acquisition, IMO. They'd probably trade Venable (rental) if they acquire Upton, so it may take a 3rd team if something is to be completed.
 
I'd be good with Ross and Gyorko.

Ross had a great year and Gyorko is signed for awhile.
 
dak said:
The Padres have made noise that they want to go for it this year, so I think they'll entertain a rental. Is it a good idea for them? Probably not. Nor was the Kemp acquisition, IMO. They'd probably trade Venable (rental) if they acquire Upton, so it may take a 3rd team if something is to be completed.
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I thought about Venable, but that would leave them with no CF other than the constantly injured Maybin, not to mention Smith's more expensive and wouldn't likely get many platoon ABs there since they wouldn't go out and get Kemp and Justin and expect either of them to give up ABs on the corners.
 
Figuring out what to do with the Braves is tricky, but it sounds like team president John Hart won’t be sentimental about keeping the team together, judging from his comments to Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “Let’s be honest: This team finished 29th in offense,” Hart says. “It’s not like I’m breaking up the ’27 Yankees.” Hart’s Braves might not have been in the same trouble the Pirates were when GM Neal Huntington said almost exactly the same thing in 2009, but the Braves have been busy so far this offseason, dealing Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins, and signing Nick Markakis and Jim Johnson. Still, Hart adds, the Braves aren’t going to “throw a hand grenade on the club and blow it up” in preparation for the opening of their new stadium in 2017. Hart adds that he has had discussions with “six to eight” teams about Justin Upton, but none that have resulted in a trade.
 
clvclv said:
This is the question that's been eating at me the entire time - not who would play for San Diego if they pulled the trigger - is the holdup partly due to whether Hart would take Smith's contract back in a deal? That could be the EXACT thing that has Hart pushing to have Johnson included in a deal with them, and would actually line up pretty well for both sides. IF Ross is enough of a Pitcher return for us, wouldn't Ross/Smith/Gyorko for Justin and Johnson make tons of sense for both sides???

Kemp replaces Smith in RF, Justin plays LF, and Johnson plays 3B - opening up 2B for Spangenberg and giving them TWO really good super-utility guys in Amarista and Solarte.

Smith plays LF here, Gattis remains behind the plate and can platoon with him at times to get more ABs, Gyorko replaces Johnson at 3B, and Ross becomes our 5th starter.
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I'd certainly do a trade of Justin Upton and CJ for Smith, Gyorko and Ross. I am not big on Ross but I like Smith a lot vs righties and like the platoon idea with Gattis since Gattis kills lefties and wouldn't have to start in left as much since we'd be facing righties mostly. This way Gattis sticks mostly at catcher where I like him best, but plays some in the outfield vs lefties to get more AB's. I also like Gyorko as a candidate to bounce back, but I doubt they are so down on him to trade him along with Smith and Ross while taking on CJ in the return too.

That said, I would do that trade straight away if on the table.
 
clvclv said:
I thought about Venable, but that would leave them with no CF other than the constantly injured Maybin, not to mention Smith's more expensive and wouldn't likely get many platoon ABs there since they wouldn't go out and get Kemp and Justin and expect either of them to give up ABs on the corners.
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I know he was considered a poor defender last year in CF, but they could always put Kemp back in his natural position in CF and live with the defense if it meant upgrading the worst offense -yes even worse than the Braves haha- in baseball by acquiring Upton.

I could live with Upton/Pastornicky/Kazmar/Russell for Ross/Wisler/Gyorko/(Venable) I would take Venable if they were willing to include him but I wouldn't let him be the deal breaker.

Maybe that is too much to ask but it could be similar.
 
blueagleace1 said:
I know he was considered a poor defender last year in CF, but they could always put Kemp back in his natural position in CF and live with the defense if it meant upgrading the worst offense -yes even worse than the Braves haha- in baseball by acquiring Upton.

I could live with Upton/Pastornicky/Kazmar/Russell for Ross/Wisler/Gyorko/(Venable) I would take Venable if they were willing to include him but I wouldn't let him be the deal breaker.

Maybe that is too much to ask but it could be similar.
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They're not going to play Kemp in Center according to most reports I've read - his defense was terrible there when he returned last season, and Petco's an even bigger park. If they did that and kept Smith in RF and Justin in LF they'd have arguably the worst defensive OF in one of the game's toughest parks, nullifying much of the offensive gains. The reports I've seen thus far have Kemp in LF with Smith in RF. The only reason I'd imagine they might include Smith is that he wouldn't have many ABs available on the corners and moving his salary would make the most sense from a payroll standpoint - trading him would make Justin an $8.5 million player this season, and the Dodgers made Kemp a $15 million player, so their payroll isn't going up as significantly as most people think. If they move Kennedy (projected to make $10.3 million in arbitration) in another deal and replace him with Wisler they really wouldn't have taken on much payroll.

I can't see them moving Wisler, especially for minimal pieces, He's a big part of the reason they've been willing to shop Cashner, Kennedy, and Ross - he's ready, so they'd have him to replace Kennedy or Ross if they're moved, and they've still got Jesse Hahn to step in if needed.
 
New Fangraphs article on Justin's trade value. I'm largely in agreement with the conclusion. Here's a snippet:

The Braves can move Upton, and they’ll get back players who will do more to help the next good Atlanta team than Upton would. But they’re not likely to get back something extraordinary, either. One year of a good player who isn’t a star just doesn’t tend to get what people expect it should. Four years of Donaldson, who is a star, didn’t bring back what many people thought it would. Most star trades don’t bring back what people think they will. Cespedes, a very similar player, brought back a single year of Porcello, a good but far from great pitcher. Upton himself, after that failed Seattle deal, was traded for a disappointing return of Martin Prado and a few mid-level prospects, the best of whom (Randall Delgado) couldn’t hang on to a starting job.

There’s still plenty of reason to find a trade for Upton, given the path the Braves have set for themselves. It’d just be a good idea to set appropriate expectations first.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/identifying-justin-uptons-trade-value/
 
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