Braves donate Justin Upton to Padres for prospects

NinersSBChamps said:
Can't defend this one. Needless to say I won't be buying the MLB package this season. It's really tough to support this team now.
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I don't know this team anymore. Lets trade Simmons, Freeman, and Gattis while we're at it.

At this point I wish we hadn't committed to Markakis.

Oh, and no point in keeping Kimbrel now either. Why have a closer if we never make it to the 9th?
 
chop2chip said:
TJ hurts any players value, marginally though. The success rate these days has to be considered close to the 90th percentile. So although it's a risk, it's not much of one.

Maybe we can trade for Justin in July? Pads should be out of it by then.
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It is more like 80% recovery rate (as I recall; been drankin' and so I definitely will not bother looking this up).

And bear in mind, that means 80% chance to get back to what he was before: a decent A-ball pitcher with control problems. The chance that he turns into an actual TOR is way lower.
 
gilesfan said:
That's the success rate for guys returning to pitch. What is the success rate in guys actually able to pitch as well after as they did before (and without another injury)
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That's a good question and I don't know the literature so anything I were to say would be conjecture. But the narrative is that performance wise most pitchers are able to come back with few issues and it's very rare for a pitcher to need a second TJ.

Of course, there are three guys that come to mind that murderr that second narrative.
 
atl717 said:
BenBadler
Good chance the 2016 draft pick the Padres can get when Justin Upton leaves ends up better than any of the prospects they traded to Atlanta

Ouch. We got a bunch of spare parts.
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well, there are 2 of us:rock:
 
Dalyn said:
I just caught up in the thread and you went from being unhappy about the trade to defending it. What changed?
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My preference was to re-sign Upton.

I just don't like how so many people have a clear vendetta against Hart/JS.
 
Dalyn said:
Not a great return--makes the Heyward deal look very good--but I like Fried. Of course, he might never make it back from his injury, so...
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Meh. Not a huge risk. I'll tell you whose nuts are on the block are Preller's. Kemp's arthritis, Upton rental, Myers poor year before injury, Norris, now Middlebrooks. Guy's got balls the size of church bells. Wait til they get a load of their Upton/Myers/Kemp defense, Norris behind the plate. Yikes...
 
Metaphysicist said:
It is more like 80% recovery rate (as I recall; been drankin' and so I definitely will not bother looking this up).

And bear in mind, that means 80% chance to get back to what he was before: a decent A-ball pitcher with control problems. The chance that he turns into an actual TOR is way lower.
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Elaborate on the second part. Is it due to lost time? Lost stuff? I would think becoming what he was before and what his previous potential would go hand in hand.
 
mossy said:
I don't know this team anymore. Lets trade Simmons, Freeman, and Gattis while we're at it.

At this point I wish we hadn't committed to Markakis.

Oh, and no point in keeping Kimbrel now either. Why have a closer if we never make it to the 9th?
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Truth.

Welcome to the --

MUKAKI REBUILD
 
thethe said:
What I don't get about Fried with some of you guys is that if he never had surgery he wouldn't have been available. Had to take a chance.
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If Kris Medlen hadn't gotten injured, then he wouldn't have been available. Should have traded with the Royals!
 
chop2chip said:
Elaborate on the second part. Is it due to lost time? Lost stuff? I would think becoming what he was before and what his previous potential would go hand in hand.
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Its a huge jump to expect him to be a TOR as it is as he's in A ball (and has control issues). THis is what Sickels has said:

3) Max Fried, LHP, Grade B+: Ultra-projectable lefty already throws in the 90s with good mechanics and promising curveball/changeup secondaries. Command needs some tightening but overall pitching aptitude looks good. Future number two starter if the universe unfolds as planned.

There are many pitchers in the minors that project to be TOR starters and only a small amount end up actually becoming that. Just adding the surgery makes it even less likely (to what degree is unknown, I think) but its certainly less possible as he misses a whole year.
 
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