Braves expecting to make QO to Santana.

That's a really big buffer. I'm guessing Liberty is willing to go to 120 but would prefer it lower and may force a firesale if attendence doesn't rebound.

But basically it sounds like our Payroll can stay the same as it was last year, Right now we're at 81M with arb players Medlen, Minor, Venters, Walden, Beachy (really can't see us letting Beachy go, no way does he get a raise from his 1.5M and he's worth that) Pena and Carp. Of that group only big cost will be Minor who'll probably jump from about 4M to 6 or 7.Walden will probably go to 3, Pena should stay around 1, and carp is at most 2.

So we have a healthy chunk of flexibility if we only have say 10M in arb, that leaves about 20M to play with. Meaning we can keep Ervin, and get someone else (like my idea of trading Johnson and signing Headley)
 
I doubt they can afford paying him 15 million. If he does accept we could get prospects closer to the majors than what a draft pick. Even if we only get a good lefty reliever and a cheap 5th starter out of it.
 
The Braves have tweeted that it has been done.

I won't be surprised (or particularly disappointed, for that matter) if he accepts: it'd represent a modest raise for a modestly good year, and if he has a much better season in 2015, he's still young enough to secure a pretty substantial three- or four-year offer thereafter.
 
There is a 0% chance Santana accepts the QO. This move was a no-brainer. Ervin will come out of this offseason $50M+ richer than he went into it, and it won't be from the Braves. Signing him last offseason was an excellent move by Wren.
 
We have to hope he turns it down. That would be the best outcome for the club. I do expect us to take on some salary when we acquire a starting pitcher. But I also expect us to shed some salary prior to or in conjunction with picking up a pitcher. This mean we are more likely to trade for a starter than sign one via free agency.
 
There is a 0% chance Santana accepts the QO. This move was a no-brainer. Ervin will come out of this offseason $50M+ richer than he went into it, and it won't be from the Braves. Signing him last offseason was an excellent move by Wren.

I don't think declining the qualifying-offer is as much of a no-brainer for Santana as you think—but offering it was a definite no-brainer for the Braves. Personally, I won't be disappointed with whatever Santana chooses; I'm just glad that Atlanta has done the smart (and obvious) thing and extented the offer.
 
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