Braves Extend Inciarte

[mqt]

Oh, for God's sake. Allow a little mystery and intangible, would you? I think it's great that your crowd is measuring everything but their d*ck size. There are still unmeasurables, and even the most saber-savvy front offices acknowledge that.

I don't think you'll find many who will argue that there are some intangible things that matter, but ultimately the traditional school of thought on these traits overrates them quite terribly.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

I don't think you'll find many who will argue that there are some intangible things that matter, but ultimately the traditional school of thought on these traits overrates them quite terribly.

I agree. I want decision making that is not data-driven, but instead data-informed.

 

[Enscheff]

Now that its clear Inciarte is here for the foreseeable future I am absolutely in favor of trading Markakis. Mallex has certainly earned the chance to play everyday. I think he is going to end up surpassing many of the expectations set out for him.

While I still contend a team will not have enough offense to contend with Mallex and Inciarte in the same OF, the Braves shouldn't be trying to contend above all else in 2017. At some point, though probably not to start the season, the best alignment for the Braves organization overall might be Mallex in CF, Ender in RF, and some sort of Kemp/Markakis platoon in LF. It won't be a good enough OF to contend, but it will allow Mallex to show what he has and let the Braves determine which of the 2 CFers they should trade.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

Ignoring the obvious with the HR projection, does Billy Hamilton die in this scenario?

Mallex had 88 steals in 2015, didn't he? Is Hamilton's OBP going to consistently top the .300 mark? Of course, the Braves don't run, so you are probably right.

 

[thewupk]

Oh, for God's sake. Allow a little mystery and intangible, would you? I think it's great that your crowd is measuring everything but their d*ck size. There are still unmeasurables, and even the most saber-savvy front offices acknowledge that.

I am just curious what these traits might be and how it translates to success on the baseball field. If you are saying he's a heads up player that has baseball instincts then that is great. What he does with those actually show up in his performance.

 

[thewupk]

Just to point out the obvious that hasn't been stated...

Unless Heyward makes some kind of massive adjustments at the plate, that contract may well go down as one of the worst in history. Heyward's going to have to do something amazing to justify 6 times as much money based mainly on baserunning and defense.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Heyward would have to continue to suck offensively and take a nosedive defensively before he reaches a Mo Vaughn level of ineptitude.

 

[mqt]

Mallex had 88 steals in 2015, didn't he? Is Hamilton's OBP going to consistently top the .300 mark? Of course, the Braves don't run, so you are probably right.

2014, but you're right otherwise. However, at one step above each of the levels Mallex was at in his best SB year, Hamilton nearly doubled that output in his.

 

[Knucksie]

I still think the best possible OF for us with our current players is Kemp-Inciarte-Mallex. I'd much rather deal Markakis and roll into 2017 with that trio.

Somebody else here made that same suggestion long ago.

 

[cajunrevenge]

Then see ya. It's basically a guarantee that the Braves' version of things like WAR and surplus value is a large factor in the way they make personnel and financial decisions.

How would you prefer them to do it? 'Hmm, that guy made a couple good plays and looks pretty good, let's give him...uh...20 million?'

I don't doubt they use every tool they can, but I know they make their decisions based off a hell of a lot more than that. Surplus value only works if you can predict performance. The projection systems were wrong all 3 years so far. Now I am supposed to accept a surplus value figure based off that system that is chronically undervaluing him.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

I am just curious what these traits might be and how it translates to success on the baseball field. If you are saying he's a heads up player that has baseball instincts then that is great. What he does with those actually show up in his performance.

If you can't figure that out by listening to (for instance) Coppy and Hart talk about Swanson, then I don't know what to tell you.

 

[clvclv]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Heyward would have to continue to suck offensively and take a nosedive defensively before he reaches a Mo Vaughn level of ineptitude.

Mo's deal wouldn't preclude Heyward's from becoming "one of" the worst - as I mentioned.

No doubt that it's going to be unbelievably hard for someone to match the awfulness that the Vaughn deal was, but Jason's is working toward being in that ballpark at this point. That can certainly change (and I hope it does for his sake), but he's REALLY going to have to hit to make that commitment look like anything other than a huge overpay when compared to Ender's. What's scary is that if Odubel Herrera continues to improve offensively his deal also makes Heyward's look that much worse.

 

[clvclv]

I am just curious what these traits might be and how it translates to success on the baseball field. If you are saying he's a heads up player that has baseball instincts then that is great. What he does with those actually show up in his performance.

Not entirely though, do they??? The name we've heard most often when people talk about Swanson is Jeter. He - probably more than any other player - has always been categorized as someone who was much better than his numbers.

Obviously it's WAY too soon to see that kind of career shaking out this early, but when people with backgrounds like Hart's who have been around the game as long as he has discuss those kinds of comps for young players it definitely gets my attention.

 

[thewupk]

If you can't figure that out by listening to (for instance) Coppy and Hart talk about Swanson, then I don't know what to tell you.

Well I haven't heard them talk about Swanson so please enlighten me.

 

[thewupk]

Mo's deal wouldn't preclude Heyward's from becoming "one of" the worst - as I mentioned.

No doubt that it's going to be unbelievably hard for someone to match the awfulness that the Vaughn deal was, but Jason's is working toward being in that ballpark at this point. That can certainly change (and I hope it does for his sake), but he's REALLY going to have to hit to make that commitment look like anything other than a huge overpay when compared to Ender's. What's scary is that if Odubel Herrera continues to improve offensively his deal also makes Heyward's look that much worse.

Yes if Heyward doesn't hit it's going to be a huge bust of a contract. That being said Herrera and Ender don't have Heywards offensive ability or at least what Heywards offensive ability used to be.

 

[thewupk]

Not entirely though, do they??? The name we've heard most often when people talk about Swanson is Jeter. He - probably more than any other player - has always been categorized as someone who was much better than his numbers.

Obviously it's WAY too soon to see that kind of career shaking out this early, but when people with backgrounds like Hart's who have been around the game as long as he has discuss those kinds of comps for young players it definitely gets my attention.

What can a player on the field do to help their team that doesn't show up? Jeter is 'better than his numbers' because he played shortstop for the Yankees and did great things in the playoffs. That being said he's still 6th all-time in SS War and probably the 3rd or 4th best offensive SS ever.

 

[thewupk]

I don't doubt they use every tool they can, but I know they make their decisions based off a hell of a lot more than that. Surplus value only works if you can predict performance. The projection systems were wrong all 3 years so far. Now I am supposed to accept a surplus value figure based off that system that is chronically undervaluing him.

So you don't think teams try to predict future performance when making trades?

 

[Russ2dollas]

Testy, aren't we? I'm pointing out an uptick that could just be small sample size, but maybe not. I haven't seen anyone else posit that Mallex might have more sock than a .600 OPS slap hitter.

A full season of at bats with Mallex's last year's HR/AB would be 10. That's more than he had at any level, so you've got to think he's getting stronger. I'm projecting a little more power as he develops.

The triples, the SB and the improvement once he gets acclimated at every level are pretty well documented.

Not testy. I've just never seen anyone project double digit hrs for him. Much less 20

I'd love to see it

Why would the Orioles trade sisco? And if the did mallex would the third piece at best

 

[Russ2dollas]

I am just curious what these traits might be and how it translates to success on the baseball field. If you are saying he's a heads up player that has baseball instincts then that is great. What he does with those actually show up in his performance.

Coppy keeps mentioning Swanson is a winner etc etc in interviews. To me it's clear they think Swanson is worth more than the sum of his tools

Don't forget there has been a lot of debate on the quality of swan dons tools. That is why so a dealt him. There are lots of opinions out there from baseball guys that's he's just an ok player. The consensus onl mlb tv the week he came up was that there was nothing special. Not in the same class as bregman

 

[thewupk]

Coppy keeps mentioning Swanson is a winner etc etc in interviews. To me it's clear they think Swanson is worth more than the sum of his tools

Don't forget there has been a lot of debate on the quality of swan dons tools. That is why so a dealt him. There are lots of opinions out there from baseball guys that's he's just an ok player. The consensus onl mlb tv the week he came up was that there was nothing special. Not in the same class as bregman

Mentioning someone is a winner is like saying they play the game the right way. To me that kind of talk is trying to say a player is better than what they actually are. Or trying to justify why he was drafted as high as he was for example.

 

[thethe]

Yes if Heyward doesn't hit it's going to be a huge bust of a contract. That being said Herrera and Ender don't have Heywards offensive ability or at least what Heywards offensive ability used to be.

I'm curious what is Heywards offensively ability at this point?