Braves get Matusz from o's
- Thread starter bravesfanforlife88
- Start date
I've seen scouts say that he has a mediocre or even below-average fastball, so it's tough to call him much of a prospect, even with his success. We're actually getting good value out of him. They are our 16th round picks from the last 2 years, I feel confident we can continue to find guys like them. Those are the kind of guys you trade at their peak value if possible to add higher-ceiling players, which is what we're attempting to do.
Compensatory picks are given to teams who lose free agents that declined a QO. We probably won't get any next year unless we give Aybar a QO and he rejects it.
Competitive balance picks are awarded via a lottery system among the 10 smallest markets and revenue pools. We're not going to get any of those.
My bad, I was referring to those competitive balance picks. That sucks.
Just because there are many, doesn't mean we should give them away. I just don't like the value given up for the value received. It isn't that critical in the grand scheme of things, but I still would rather "win" trades, even the marginal ones
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
well according to most we did win this trade.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
it's actually like $2 something mil, and that money doesn't really mean anything this year.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
because there so many of them, fringe prospects with low upside (as in, lucky to be a 5th starter for a year or two), there isn't much value to them. they were 16th round picks. finding guys like them isn't exactly difficult.
paying some excess cash and excess pitchers for a shot at much higher upside is what we should be doing.
I think at the absolute worst we had an even trade in this case, but this seems like a clear win for the Braves. If this trade allows us to take Groome and another top 20 type HS player that falls due to concerns over signability, this is more than worth it. We just won't see the fruits of this deal for another couple weeks.
Think of it as essentially boosting the value of the 40th pick. Let's use this as a quick and dirty guide to the value of our pick: http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/
If we went with the expected value of the 40th pick, we're looking at a value of $18.6 million. However, knowing how the draft works, say we're getting the approximate value of a 21-25 pick due to going overslot thanks in part to the extra pool money and now we're looking at a value of $23.7 million. We spent $2 million in this trade by picking up Matusz, but the value would be $5 million in excess value.
Now, I understand it isn't nearly that simple for a number of reasons. For one thing, we'd be spending a million or two more in bonus money if it works out, which would even out the money. Also, it's obviously a gamble on our part that such a player would fall back to us. However, it's a gamble worth taking because we have a lot of holes to fill and this provides us a better chance to fill them.
Exactly. Sometimes money doesn't count, like when you have open space in this year's budget that won't be used for any other purpose after this year.
Thanks for sharing, that is an excellent article that I've never read before. In terms of whether the money "means anything," it certainly does. Money can/could have bought FA players that would be valuable to other teams. I'm not saying it was a bad move, just that I'm not sure of it being a slam dunk move.
conalthomas
High School Draftee
As the father of a 14 year old girl, I'd just like to say that many people are actually quite a bit worse.
What an unbelievably terrible trade. We just got butt ****ed with no lubricant at all. Goddamn
Yeah, it'll paralyze the franchise for years to come.
I don't really see the downside of this trade. Other than the fact some here have a metaphorical connection like zeets because they watched these kid grow up and hate to see us ship them off.
conalthomas
High School Draftee
My feelings exactly.
bravos4evr
Still Playing the Waiting Game
here's the thing. $2.8m of payroll money is worth at least as much as $840k of draft bonus money because of the severe penalties incurred for overage. (and because you must trade to acquire more bonus funds) the excess value of the #76 pick is worth like $5m, so if you look at it, we broke about even in just pure excess value. BUT, when you consider our specific draft situation, adding $840k to the kitty gives us a lot of leverage to increase the value of our #40 and #44 picks in excess of their estimated value.
ramadon101
Danville Rookie
This is a solid deal. I'd like to see more like this, actually.
FanGraphs write up on the trade: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-orioles-sold-a-draft-pick-again/
I agree with the exception that the two arms we sent over may have more value than "non-prospects" entirely (I wouldn't be as dismissive as FG was), but I'd still make the swap every day of the week given what it means for our draft pool and leverage with higher ceiling talent.
FanGraphs write up on the trade: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-orioles-sold-a-draft-pick-again/
I agree with the exception that the two arms we sent over may have more value than "non-prospects" entirely (I wouldn't be as dismissive as FG was), but I'd still make the swap every day of the week given what it means for our draft pool and leverage with higher ceiling talent.
I kind of agree with your point, but if a statistically oriented site is dismissing Baltimore's return as non-prospects, I'd cite that as pretty solid evidence that we made out pretty well.