Luck is the major reason someones BABIP is near .200. And yes it is a small sample size. His K/9, BB rate, and HR rate are not all that spectacular. Even in his 2nd half last year. His success is almost all directly tied to that low BABIP. The chances are very high his BABIP will be near .300 in 2015. Thus his era will rise if he doesn't improve in other areas.
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Luck is the major reason someones BABIP is near .200. And yes it is a small sample size. His K/9, BB rate, and HR rate are not all that spectacular. Even in his 2nd half last year. His success is almost all directly tied to that low BABIP. The chances are very high his BABIP will be near .300 in 2015. Thus his era will rise if he doesn't improve in other areas.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
I wouldn't say those are the defining factors for, but there are pretty good indicators about whether previous performance is sustainable. See Horacio circa 2003-2004 and Jorge Sosa in 2005. Those guys did great in those years, but one look at their peripherals would let you know they weren't gonna keep it up.
Pitchers generally regress towards their FIP, and though there are guys like Hudson and Johnny Cueto (dude is single handedly trying to make FIP irrelevant) who buck the trend, the are pretty rare. Basically the only person in recent history who could put up 4.00 FIPs every year and still be an ace was Tom Glavine. Shelby Miller is not Tom Glavine. To be a TOR pitcher, he's gonna have to build on what he's done up to now, he's gotta keep developing, or odds are the league will catch up to him. I'm optimistic he can do it (his final month last year was encouraging), but those are the forces at work.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
This narrative is not true. Look at his splits: (link)
He didn't have a "stellar second half." His ERA was over 4.00 in every month save April and September. He had an excellent final five games of the season, which is great and hopefully a sign of things to come, but let's not make it out to be more than it is.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Cool. Thanks.
He was pretty good in September. A lot to like from my perspective while working through a sophmore slump.
Agreed. Pretty much my take on the deal the entire time.
The driving factors (for me) were that we had NOBODY in our system who projects as anything better than a #3/#4/#5 that appears to be on track to be ready by the time the new stadium opens. Sorry Sims supporters - I hope I'm wrong - but he's got much further to go to be better than that than Miller and Jenkins do.
The hope has to be that Julio doesn't regress and remains a #1 (even if he isn't considered a true "Ace"), and Wood, Miller, and Jenkins become at least #2s at their best and strong #3s at their worst. That rotation would more or less resemble what we had when Huddy was at the top of it when he was here, and would give you a puncher's chance of getting to the playoffs year in and year out.
Not tying the big-time money up in a player our own scouts and evaluators still have questions about at least puts you in a position to go get that "Ace" we've not had in years if the decision is to follow the Royals' lead (that Dayton learned here) of trying to outpitch everyone and hope to squeeze out runs when we can.
Dalyn
Fredi Gonzalez Supporter
I don't agree with you about Jenkins compared to Sims, but you have it right with Miller. I also think Martin could turn into a fantastic #3. Not sure it'll be with us, though.
DirkPiggler
Well-known member
Looking at Miller's stats more closely, particularly his minor league numbers, it seems like 2014 was the outlier rather than the norm. His K/9 was far lower than any season at any level, while his walks were actually close to the same or even a little better.
Calling him a 4.00 FIP pitcher doesn't tell the whole story, when there was almost a full run difference between the two seasons. There just isn't enough data yet to assume that he is going to trend back to that average.
I think we're giving recent performance a little too much credit in our evaluation. My guess would be that as he gains experience Miller will go back to having solid K numbers and get that FIP down well below 4, as it was in his rookie year.
Calling him a 4.00 FIP pitcher doesn't tell the whole story, when there was almost a full run difference between the two seasons. There just isn't enough data yet to assume that he is going to trend back to that average.
I think we're giving recent performance a little too much credit in our evaluation. My guess would be that as he gains experience Miller will go back to having solid K numbers and get that FIP down well below 4, as it was in his rookie year.
Poor Hudson and his career 3.75. Guess he never was a TOR starter.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
And that quickly does carpe say something truly moronic.
For one, Miller's career ERA isn't 3.00. And pitchers outpitch their WAR quite frequently. Especially during their prime.
Gary82
Called Up to the Major Leagues
I think we'll get something closer to 2013 than 2014. He'll be a positive contributor, but for now, a mid to bottom rotation guy. I don't know if he'll be a #2, but he'll at least be a solid #3 or #4 in his career. And all it took to get him was to trade Hewyard. (hehehe)
And how quickly Zito begins the personal attacks when its shown his argument has major holes into it.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
No you're just flat out wrong. A 4 FIP in 2014 and a 4 FIP in 2004 are drastically different.
Huddy's career ERA- is 82 his career FIP- is 89. Not too far from each other. Using FIP- we find that his career FIP- is the same as 2 players in baseball last year, Madison Bumgarner (3.05 FIP) and Alex Wood (3.25 FIP) so does that spell it out clearly enough for you?
Because a 3.75 FIP today is the same as for someone who pitched through the steroid era. And Hudson is one of the few players who generally out performs their FIP. So yeah. Good comparison.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
Who in here said Miller has reached his upside? I don't think literally anyone said that, at all. How about reading?
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
All I said was RIGHT NOW you cannot call Shelby Miller a TOR pitcher. He simply is not. I like Miller and I like his potential. To say he's been a TOR pitcher is just silly. Yes, he was good his rookie year. He still wasn't a TOR guy. TOR guys can be relied on for a lot of tough innings, and Miller hasn't been that guy yet. Give me a break. Heyward has been a much more valuable piece to a team the last two years.
I'm referring to the 2nd half when people have said he turned the corner. Outside of a 200 BABIP nothing changed. He still had a 4+ FIP while having an era around 3. Yes pithers can outpitch their FIP. But it's not by a whole run consistantly.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
Right, and that stuff usually adjusts. A whole lot of data suggests pitchers tend to regress towards their FIP. Miller could definitely improve his FIP. He's still young. But RIGHT NOW, to proclaim him a TOR guy is just puzzling. It makes no sense. It 100% has not been, especially last year.