The reason I think you should throw out the previous numbers is because other teams are not going to negotiate with us giving Julio the benefit of the doubt in all likelihood. I agree that it doesn't make sense to trade Julio at his lowest value, but I think people seem to generally be taking it for granted that his value isn't currently low.
Braves listening on Inciarte, Teheran, and Markakis for power bat; Freeman staying
- Thread starter praeceps93
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The reason I think you should throw out the previous numbers is because other teams are not going to negotiate with us giving Julio the benefit of the doubt in all likelihood. I agree that it doesn't make sense to trade Julio at his lowest value, but I think people seem to generally be taking it for granted that his value isn't currently low.
This.
It's not that anyone believes Julio's incapable of rebounding - so much that his contract could be considered extremely valuable again. His late-season performance backs that up.
The point is that his first half stumble gives the rest of the teams a justifiable reason to question just how much surplus value is truly there, driving his trade value down far enough that it makes no sense to trade him IF you believe he's going to rebound. There's no reason to entertain the idea of trading him at this point unless another team believes in him as much as the Braves (and fans) do.
I understand those pointing out his 2 GOOD seasons. The problem is you have to understand the opposing perspective - he's only been good 67% of the time since you got a bad year with them. When you consider how many teams were skeptical about paying Cueto this winter, it's easy to see why they'd be skeptical about giving up premium talent for Julio as well. Both guys had an extended bad stretch to cloud what had otherwise been a pretty dominant resume. Those teams say "we know how good he CAN be, but I need to see it a little more because he wasn't that good recently".
If Teheran gives you 12-15 starts during the first half like the ones he delivered at the end of 2015, he might get you that offer of premium talent (both because of his contract and the lack of available options next winter), but you have to realize that even during his strong finish he still resembled a #3 at best - he only gave you MORE than 6 innings in 13 of his 33 starts last season.
bravescountry
Arizona Fall Leaguer
I'm just going to say what I think after looking at a few posts here and there about comparing Teheran to Syndergaard and Urias or what not. ANd his trade value..
1) Teheran right now has little value, but if he rebounds in the first hald of 2016, he will have a whole ton of value to net a lot in return... that being said:
2) He being in the same category as Syndergaard and Urias..
I wouldn't involve Urias yet because he hasn't pitched in the majors, but I do want to say that the upside of Urias is a whole lot larger than the upside of Teheran. One commenter made an argument that Urias isn't an ace or something because he's rarely pitched in the minors, but that's not that strong of an argument if you see why he wasn't pitching much. It wasn't due to injury. He's a 19 year old in AAA. The Dodgers are going slow with him. He doesn't have injury concern, but rather due to age that he isn't pitching much.
And Syndergaard, why are you comparing Syndergaards 2015 with Teheran's 2014?If it's because of age (both were 23 in the years you compared), that's unfair because Teheran would have more experience. The true comparison should be like
Syndergaard: 9-7, 3.24 ERA, 150IP, 10 k/9, 1.9 BB/9, 166 k's, 1.047 WHIP
Teheran: 14-8, 3.20 ERA, 185 IP, 8.2 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 170 k's,1.174 WHIP,
--> They aren't that different in their rookie seasons, but I'd take Syndergaard over Teheran..
And also abour prospect rankings, yes Syndergaard was ranked #10, but he was in a historic prospect class off Buxton, Correa, Lindor, Russell, Bryant, and more...and Urias is #4 right now...
3) Somebody said that Teheran can net a top 10 prospect or two top 50s including a top 25..
I doubt anybody would give that up for Teheran. A more reasonable expectation would be a top 30 prospect+ a top 100 prospect
Something like: Benintendi + Kopech// Brinson + Ortiz// Meadows + McGuire
Okay, so my final opinion is that I think Teheran, Inciarte, Freeman, and Markakis all end up on a different team by the start of 2017.
At the trade deadline, assuming they all show they are healthy and an produce, I think teams give up a ransom for Freeman, a solid package for Teheran, and a decent pacakge for Teheran. (I'd trade Markakis to almost anybody who takes his contract and offers a decent prospect)...
1) Teheran right now has little value, but if he rebounds in the first hald of 2016, he will have a whole ton of value to net a lot in return... that being said:
2) He being in the same category as Syndergaard and Urias..
I wouldn't involve Urias yet because he hasn't pitched in the majors, but I do want to say that the upside of Urias is a whole lot larger than the upside of Teheran. One commenter made an argument that Urias isn't an ace or something because he's rarely pitched in the minors, but that's not that strong of an argument if you see why he wasn't pitching much. It wasn't due to injury. He's a 19 year old in AAA. The Dodgers are going slow with him. He doesn't have injury concern, but rather due to age that he isn't pitching much.
And Syndergaard, why are you comparing Syndergaards 2015 with Teheran's 2014?If it's because of age (both were 23 in the years you compared), that's unfair because Teheran would have more experience. The true comparison should be like
Syndergaard: 9-7, 3.24 ERA, 150IP, 10 k/9, 1.9 BB/9, 166 k's, 1.047 WHIP
Teheran: 14-8, 3.20 ERA, 185 IP, 8.2 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 170 k's,1.174 WHIP,
--> They aren't that different in their rookie seasons, but I'd take Syndergaard over Teheran..
And also abour prospect rankings, yes Syndergaard was ranked #10, but he was in a historic prospect class off Buxton, Correa, Lindor, Russell, Bryant, and more...and Urias is #4 right now...
3) Somebody said that Teheran can net a top 10 prospect or two top 50s including a top 25..
I doubt anybody would give that up for Teheran. A more reasonable expectation would be a top 30 prospect+ a top 100 prospect
Something like: Benintendi + Kopech// Brinson + Ortiz// Meadows + McGuire
Okay, so my final opinion is that I think Teheran, Inciarte, Freeman, and Markakis all end up on a different team by the start of 2017.
At the trade deadline, assuming they all show they are healthy and an produce, I think teams give up a ransom for Freeman, a solid package for Teheran, and a decent pacakge for Teheran. (I'd trade Markakis to almost anybody who takes his contract and offers a decent prospect)...
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Forgive me, but in no way can I take you seriously if you can keep saying Urias is more of an Ace than Teheran when he hasn't pitched more than 80 innings above A ball in his career...
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Its a very strong argument... who cares about potential if its never realized? How can you call someone an ace without ever having pitched a MLB game, let alone more than 80 innings in the minors? When Teheran was a prospect he had just as high of a ceiling as Urias does. No one has any clue if Urias will be anything close to his ceiling... or even anywhere close to the pitcher Teheran is on his worst day.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
So basically you just helped me make my point... that there is little difference between Syndergaard and Teheran... not this massive huge ridiculous gulf like clvclv was blathering about without thinking. That was my whole argument and you've helped me make it.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
Well, there are two sides to the equation. There may be a team that needs Teheran and Inciarte much more than the Braves do in their current situation AND be willing to pay for them. For instance take the Cubs who are built to contend for a WS right now. But, going into the season, they have their new RF, where a significant part of his value is his RF defense, slated to play CF. Now, Heyward likely can play a passable CF defensively BUT there is no question that he is out of position. Then you look at their SP where they have one stud and two very good guys who have a history of injury and/or age. They also have spare value that they could send to the Braves in return.
Is it possible that Inciarte will hit .330 with an OBP of .420 in the first half? Is it possible that Teheran will be sub 2 era in the first half? Of course. But it is at least equally possible that Inciarte will struggle with the move out of Arizona into what is likely to be a pretty awful lineup and that Teheran will start with an era of above 4.
In a perfect world both start off with career years and the Braves move them at the height of their value. But things are seldom perfect.
Right now both are 1. healthy 2. cost controlled 3. coming off either an excellent season or a good second half 4. in the offseason where an acquiring team would benefit for an entire season instead of just a playoff run 5. still young and projectable
Given all that why not keep them you say? Because the Braves need to fill holes, not necessarily for today but for 2017 and beyond and the best way to do that is trade for quality AND quantity.
But trading Teheran and Inciarte will at best move the holes you say? Not necessarily. There are internal options to replace Inciarte already in M Smith. And, his top of the lineup value is covered from a number of different directions from within with Albies, Swanson, Smith, etc. What the Braves really need is power and production bats, especially RH bats since they don't have any anywhere above rookie ball. Teheran is movable IF you believe in what you've spent the entire last year and a half doing which is acquiring young pitching. In addition, there are a number a quality veteran reclamation projects out there who could step in immediately and at least supply part of what Teheran brings.
Any move is a gamble. But a rebuilding club that gets at least good value (not necessarily great value) that potentially fills several long term holes has to be willing to make that move.
I already conceded this point. If other teams do not value him as a guy with $50M-$80M of surplus value then don't trade him. It would be selling low on this particular asset.
A top 10 prospect is worth about $40M-$50M in surplus value. A top 25-50 guy is worth around $20M-$30M. Guys outside the top 50 bust so often they aren't worth hoarding nor making the centerpiece of a deal.
So if no team is willing to send a prospect package that somehow totals Julio's surplus value....no deal.
Pretty much sums it up. No reason to trade him unless we are getting this sort of value. We are really in a no way to lose situation with his contract for the most part.
bravescountry
Arizona Fall Leaguer
I wasn't taking sides- just clearing things up because you used different years of pitching which isn't really fair..
and also, to your previous response:
I can make the same argument about Teheran. If he DOESN'T rebound (in which I think he will, but we never know after Hansen ad Jurjen and Medlen and Beachy..), he will have practically no value..
and I just want to note, when you write something, make it more specific. Urias pitched more than 80 innings in the minors..
he's just never pitched more than 87 innings in a single season..
but in all honesty, I'd too take Urias over Teheran because his upside is just too great. He's only 19 years old and has dominated every single league he's been in..
And as of the moment, there's no one out there willing to meet that asking price.
Break it down and grasp at whatever straws someone on this message board likes (not directed at you obviously anyushu or Enscheff) - at his BEST, there's no question that Julio COULD be worth two Top 50-75 prospects. The problem is that his "best" was 2 seasons ago. If and when he gets back to that level for an extended period of time, he'll net that kind of return.
January 16, 2016 - coming off a season where he went 11-8 with a 4.04 ERA, a 93 ERA+, and 13 of 33 starts where he lasted more than 6 innings simply isn't that time.
Serious question for those who believe someone's going to give you 2 Top 50 prospects for Julio RIGHT NOW - if you believe the narrative that the Braves fleeced Arizona in the Miller deal, make sure that you use it as a reference. The D-Backs gave up ONE Top 50 prospect, ONE Top 60-100 prospect, and an "extra" OF piece to get Miller (coming off a MUCH BETTER year). Similar deals for Julio would include:
Boston - Moncada, Benintendi, and Jackie Bradley
Cubs - Gleyber Torres, Underwood, and Soler or Baez
Rangers - Gallo, Lewis Brinson, and Luis Ortiz or Michael Matuella
Rockies - Brendan Rodgers, Jeff Hoffman, and Charlie Blackmon
Astros - Cameron or Kyle Tucker, A. J. Reed, and Jake Marisnick
The question is, would you make ANY of those deals if you were running those teams after watching Teheran pitch last year??? If you would, you wouldn't have a job for very long, even if the Braves "threw-in" Inciarte.
tomahawkchop
New member
There's another reason to hold onto Teheran for the time being that I haven't seen brought up...
Look at next year's crop of FA that teams will be picking from to find a SP: http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/2017/starting-pitcher/
Look at next year's crop of FA that teams will be picking from to find a SP: http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/2017/starting-pitcher/
To pose this question a different way, would any of you trade Swanson, Allard and Inciarte for Garrett Richards?
ixiXSolidXixi
Called Up to the Major Leagues
I don't know what plan the braves have with Inciarte but you think the Braves can trade him to the Astros for Carlos Gomez and Daz Cameron or Tucker and on the trade deadline trade Carlos for another 1 or 2 prospects more?
So we keep him and see where things stand at the deadline or next offseason. No harm done either way really. We either have a guy with about the same value as he has now signed at a below market rate, or he rebounds and is worth a ton or is a fantastic #2 starter for us if we decide to keep him. There is just zero reason to sell him low. Before pitcher contracts went to the moon this offseason I was more in favor of moving him this offseason, but with guys who have career ERAs in the 3.90 range getting 14 mil a year it makes no sense at all to move Julio right now unless we are blown away.
I personally wouldn't expect 2 top 50 prospects for Julio even if he just had a 3.25ish ERA last season. Though I think a top 30ish and top 75ish would be reasonable.
I'd personally just hold on to him, hope he bounces back to a sub 3.50 ERA this season, and try to flip him to Boston for Benintendi (or a package including Daz/Tucker if they are looking solid) at the deadline or next offseason if they need pitching.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Well, if you would rather have Urias over Teheran, I can't help you... but that's just plain silly. To take a 19 year old prospect without a pitch in the majors over a 24 year that has already proven he can be a TOR pitcher is ridiculous. Again, you're still forgetting that Teheran had the same ceiling as Urias does when he was a prospect. The big difference? Teheran has actually shown he can do it in the majors... Urias has not.
I'd take Urias over JT simply because we're in rebuild mode. But no team that wants to win in 2016 is taking Urias over JT, everything else being equal. But I'm not doing that trade straight up either. Quality MLB pitchers on a team friendly deal are worth more than 1 elite pitching prospect. At the same time, it's highly unlikely the Dodgers offer up Urias in a trade simply because they could likely get a pitcher like Sonny Gray with a similar package.
NYCBrave
Well-known member
Great point, especially if he has a rebound season this year. Plus it gives us another year to see where we are in the rebuild and if we have any remote chance to compete in 2017 or 2018
The Astros had 3 objectives to start the season and it was to add a power arm in the pen, a contact hitter, and a #3 starter. They added Giles, but Rasmus accepting the QO has put them at max with their budget. So Julio and Inciarte are two players that would be very useful to their plans as well as fit in their budget. It's not easy competing in the AL with a $70 Million budget. We would have to take back Feldman or Neshak to make the money work, but I can definitely see an opportunity to get Springer back in a deal. I don't think we'd get any of their top 4 prospects, but they have some depth there depending on the deal and the money.