Braves Should Avoid Becoming Diamondbacks

thewupk said:
Yeah they were. And he has one of the best line drive hit tools in the game. If he is elevating the ball now(like he did in the 2nd half) then he is going to put up monster numbers.
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Again, I think pretty much everyone has acknowledged that it's possible Freeman has taken a step forward and becomes one of the best hitters in baseball. But one of the best hitters of all-time with a BABIP even higher than it had been (which, as you said, came from being one of the best line-drive hitters in the game)? That's where people assume his 2nd half numbers are probably unsustainable at exactly that level.

I said this already, but you would also have to basically assume his 1st half numbers were also legit, meaning he took a step back before taking a ridiculously huge step forward.
 
smootness said:
Again, I think pretty much everyone has acknowledged that it's possible Freeman has taken a step forward and becomes one of the best hitters in baseball. But one of the best hitters of all-time with a BABIP even higher than it had been (which, as you said, came from being one of the best line-drive hitters in the game)? That's where people assume his 2nd half numbers are probably unsustainable at exactly that level.

I said this already, but you would also have to basically assume his 1st half numbers were also legit, meaning he took a step back before taking a ridiculously huge step forward.
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Don't all great players post high BABIPs?
 
Freddie Freeman has a career BABIP of .341. That's pretty high but reflects the fact he hits the ball hard and uses all fields.

Freddie Freeman had a BABIP of .370 last year. That's very high. He may replicate it again in his career but likely not sustainable.

Freddie Freeman had a BABIP of .389 in the second half. That's crazy high. For context, the tenth highest BABIP in baseball of all time for a full-season is .395. He might do that in a full season. But it would be an historic performance.

If I were in the forecasting business (and I am), I would predict a .350 BABIP for Fredito in 2017. It could be a bit higher or a bit lower than that. But that is the kind of number that makes the most sense for him. Steamer has him at .327 for 2017, which strikes me as low.

Could Fredito win an MVP in 2017? He could. I hope he does. But projecting that kind of season for him lies in the realm of ecstatic exaltation rather than a serious assessment of the probabilities.
 
smootness said:
Again, I think pretty much everyone has acknowledged that it's possible Freeman has taken a step forward and becomes one of the best hitters in baseball. But one of the best hitters of all-time with a BABIP even higher than it had been (which, as you said, came from being one of the best line-drive hitters in the game)? That's where people assume his 2nd half numbers are probably unsustainable at exactly that level.

I said this already, but you would also have to basically assume his 1st half numbers were also legit, meaning he took a step back before taking a ridiculously huge step forward.
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His xBABIP was like 10 points lower than his actual BABIP in the 2nd half. He was slightly lucky. But a super high BABIP with power is going to lead to great results. Freeman also has a good eye and takes plenty of walks. Really the only thing he can improve to really cement his game as one of the best hitters in baseball is to get his K% back at 20% or lower as it was in the past few seasons instead of 24% it was in 2016. If he does that he will be an absolute monster.

And if you want to be technical Freeman posted a 131 WRC+ in the first half which is right in line with his previous year and career numbers. If you want to be logical I think you can look at a month by month break down and see he was tinkering with his swing to get more lift on the ball and once he got it then his numbers took off.
 
nsacpi said:
Freddie Freeman has a career BABIP of .341. That's pretty high but reflects the fact he hits the ball hard and uses all fields.

Freddie Freeman had a BABIP of .370 last year. That's very high. He may replicate it again in his career but likely not sustainable.

Freddie Freeman had a BABIP of .389 in the second half. That's crazy high. For context, the tenth highest BABIP in baseball of all time for a full-season is .395. He might do that in a full season. But it would be an historic performance.

If I were in the forecasting business (and I am), I would predict a .350 BABIP for Fredito in 2017. It could be a bit higher or a bit lower than that. But that is the kind of number that makes the most sense for him. Steamer has him at .327 for 2017, which strikes me as low.

Could Fredito win an MVP in 2017? He could. I hope he does. But projecting that kind of season for him lies in the realm of ecstatic exaltation rather than a serious assessment of the probabilities.
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So what about that 350 BABIP, while hitting more balls in the air like 2016, and keeping his K% below 20% like from 2012-2015? How probable is that?
 
thewupk said:
So what about that 350 BABIP, while hitting more balls in the air like 2016, and keeping his K% below 20% like from 2012-2015? How probable is that?
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I think Freddie is entering his prime and still improving. He is hitting more balls (including home runs) to the opposite field. Guys who go to the opposite field tend to have higher BABIP. I agree with the point that hitting more balls in the air should in isolation lead to a lower BABIP. More home runs but lower BABIP. But there is an offset from going more to the opposite field and also his general maturation as a hitter.

The new ballpark might encourage a shift in approach toward pulling the ball more. If that happens, he'll become more vulnerable to the shift and his BABIP will drop. We'll have to see.
 
nsacpi said:
I think Freddie is entering his prime and still improving. He is hitting more balls (including home runs) to the opposite field. Guys who go to the opposite field tend to have higher BABIP. I agree with the point that hitting more balls in the air should in isolation lead to a lower BABIP. More home runs but lower BABIP. But there is an offset from going more to the opposite field and also his general maturation as a hitter.
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A couple of things that will help the BABIP even with a higher FB% is the fact is he hitting the ball harder. Over 44% in 2016 were hard hit balls which is a career high. So the flyballs that are hit hard are now going over the fence. Which is evidence by a higher HR/FB rate in 2016. And that reduces the negative impact flyballs have on BABIP. And as you said Freddie going OPPO as much as he does improves his BABIP as well.
 
thewupk said:
A couple of things that will help the BABIP even with a higher FB% is the fact is he hitting the ball harder. Over 44% in 2016 were hard hit balls which is a career high. So the flyballs that are hit hard are now going over the fence. Which is evidence by a higher HR/FB rate in 2016. And that reduces the negative impact flyballs have on BABIP. And as you said Freddie going OPPO as much as he does improves his BABIP as well.
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He had a tremendous second half. My point about that is historical context. If he replicates his second half for a full season, it would be an MVP season. And his second half BABIP over a full season would I believe be one of the top 20 BABIP seasons in the history of baseball.
 
thewupk said:
His xBABIP was like 10 points lower than his actual BABIP in the 2nd half. He was slightly lucky. But a super high BABIP with power is going to lead to great results. Freeman also has a good eye and takes plenty of walks. Really the only thing he can improve to really cement his game as one of the best hitters in baseball is to get his K% back at 20% or lower as it was in the past few seasons instead of 24% it was in 2016. If he does that he will be an absolute monster.

And if you want to be technical Freeman posted a 131 WRC+ in the first half which is right in line with his previous year and career numbers. If you want to be logical I think you can look at a month by month break down and see he was tinkering with his swing to get more lift on the ball and once he got it then his numbers took off.
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There's a difference between 'lucky' and 'unsustainable'. I never said his 2nd half was lucky. I believe he was truly hitting the ball that well. I just don't think it's very likely he is able to sustain that level of hitting because it would make him an all-time great hitter, and to this point no one has seen that kind of potential in him.

Again, it is possible, for all the reasons you've mentioned. I just don't think it's likely because in the history of baseball very, very few hitters have been able to sustain it.

In the modern era, for example, the highest career BABIP is Votto at .359. Trout is currently at .360. So just understand that if you project Freeman to continue his 2nd half, you're projecting him to become one of the greatest hitters of all time.
 
thethe said:
Don't all great players post high BABIPs?
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No. Some great players don't even post a particularly high BA. But yes, many do. But there's a different between 'high' and 'ridiculously high'. Freeman's career BABIP is high; his BABIP in the 2nd half last year was ridiculously high...not so far higher than some other great players as to be entirely unsustainable, but high enough (relative to himself as well) to believe it is likely to drop.
 
Freeman's hitting fundamentals are solid. He can drive the ball to all fields, which is fairly rare. Great guy to build a team around. If he keeps it up, we'll be arguing about well above average to borderline great.
 
50PoundHead said:
Freeman's hitting fundamentals are solid. He can drive the ball to all fields, which is fairly rare. Great guy to build a team around. If he keeps it up, we'll be arguing about well above average to borderline great.
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Yes. I think the debate is about whether it makes sense to project him to sustain what he did in the second half of last year. Or how much of that. But there is no arguing he is a very good hitter. A tremendous hitter. I always get a sense of confidence seeing him come up in a key situation.
 
nsacpi said:
Yes. I think the debate is about whether it makes sense to project him to sustain what he did in the second half of last year. Or how much of that. But there is no arguing he is a very good hitter. A tremendous hitter. I always get a sense of confidence seeing him come up in a key situation.
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He goes into a heavy swing-and-miss mode several times during the season when he's in an obvious slump, but I'm surprised how his BABIP stays as high without walking as much as Trout or Votto.

In a non-related note, Freeman's parents are both Canadian, which somehow makes him eligible to play for Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic if he so chooses.
 
Votto and Trout are obviously androids who should be banned from baseball. Fredito is human.
 
smootness said:
There's a difference between 'lucky' and 'unsustainable'. I never said his 2nd half was lucky. I believe he was truly hitting the ball that well. I just don't think it's very likely he is able to sustain that level of hitting because it would make him an all-time great hitter, and to this point no one has seen that kind of potential in him.

Again, it is possible, for all the reasons you've mentioned. I just don't think it's likely because in the history of baseball very, very few hitters have been able to sustain it.

In the modern era, for example, the highest career BABIP is Votto at .359. Trout is currently at .360. So just understand that if you project Freeman to continue his 2nd half, you're projecting him to become one of the greatest hitters of all time.
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Just a guess that they weren't using advanced metrics to back it up, but FWIW - Freeman was projected to eventually win several batting titles by more than a couple observers and scouts. JMO, but the power jump has been more surprising than anything else since Heyward was always pointed to as the bigger thumper of the two.

Maybe that doesn't necessarily put him on the "all-time great" level, but he was always seen as a *amn good hitter.
 
clvclv said:
Just a guess that they weren't using advanced metrics to back it up, but FWIW - Freeman was projected to eventually win several batting titles by more than a couple observers and scouts. JMO, but the power jump has been more surprising than anything else since Heyward was always pointed to as the bigger thumper of the two.

Maybe that doesn't necessarily put him on the "all-time great" level, but he was always seen as a *amn good hitter.
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Yes, but this entire discussion has been about whether or not we think Freeman will be really freaking good or an all-time great. He clearly is really freaking good already.
 
All of this regarding Freeman has been covered here:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/will-freemans-breakout-season-carry-over-into-2017/

This article also shows that Freeman "should have" hit 6 more HRs in Turner Field this past season. He also shows that Freeman's typical batted balls would lead to ~6 more HRs in Suntrust.

I would not be shocked at all to see Freeman post another .950+ OPS season next year with 40+ HRs. I would project him for 5-6 WAR, which is 1-2 WAR higher than the projections floating around.
 
smootness said:
There's a difference between 'lucky' and 'unsustainable'. I never said his 2nd half was lucky. I believe he was truly hitting the ball that well. I just don't think it's very likely he is able to sustain that level of hitting because it would make him an all-time great hitter, and to this point no one has seen that kind of potential in him.

Again, it is possible, for all the reasons you've mentioned. I just don't think it's likely because in the history of baseball very, very few hitters have been able to sustain it.

In the modern era, for example, the highest career BABIP is Votto at .359. Trout is currently at .360. So just understand that if you project Freeman to continue his 2nd half, you're projecting him to become one of the greatest hitters of all time.
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Freeman has a unique skill set that is above most hitters. His career LD% is 2nd best among all players since 2002 and the only guy ahead of him has a 1/3rd of the PA's that Freeman has. He's also 11th in Hard Hit% and if last year is any indication he has taken it up another level as well. Again, he doesn't even have to have a BABIP as high as it was in the 2nd half to put up those type of numbers if his K% goes back to pre 2016 levels.

Freeman is a pretty unique hitting talent and has the tools to be an all-time great during his prime years.
 
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