Braves Should Avoid Becoming Diamondbacks

50PoundHead said:
Not directly no. But if one walks a lot, the denominator for calculating BABIP goes down considerably. Indirectly, the more one is walking, the less bad pitches a hitter is likely swinging at.
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There's just not a strong relationship between them. You see guys like Edwin Encarnacion, Chris Davis, and Tiexeira who walk a good bit and don't have particularly high BABIPs and then guys like Puig who walk less and have a much better BABIP.

I get the argument on some level, but it doesn't really play out that way. How much a player walks has very, very little to do with his BABIP, which makes sense, as it only counts the balls you actually do put in play. It has FAR more to do with your swing than your patience at the plate.
 
thethe said:
Don't all great players post high BABIPs?
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It depends on what you call great, but take an old school guy like Nellie Fox as an example. Fox walked at a respectable rate and rarely struck out. He was inducted into the Hall of Fame by the Vets' committee, but his highest BABIP during his career was .320 and several years, his BABIP actually exceeded his BA. Hank Aaron had a career BABIP of .291 and his highest year was .338. Willy Mays' was .299. Different game now, but there's a lot of great players with nondescript BABIPs.
 
Speaking of the DBacks, they just acquired Walker and Marte from Seattle for Segura plus a couple of other guys. The new GM is hitting the ground running

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Can Segura play short? I would assume that to be the case since Cano is at 2B.

Marte looked like he had promise but I think Seattle rushed him. Walker may be a boom or bust arm, highly thought of but unable to really put it together yet.

Doesn't look like a money move for Seattle, but their payroll is up near $150M I think.

Do the D'Backs go with Drury at 2B? Gosselin?
 
Perfect Cell said:
couldnt agree more, i understand pressure is high to win cause of the stadium, but we need to avoid another teixera deal at this point.
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It goes both ways though. Bill shainkin's tweet about walker getting price thtee years ago is also an important factor to consider.
 
The point is basically there is no right answer. There is just good self scouting. You either succeed at that or not.
 
thethe said:
The point is basically there is no right answer. There is just good self scouting. You either succeed at that or not.
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There is a clear answer. For the Braves to be real contenders this year they would need to empty the farm. That's very short sighted.
 
thewupk said:
There is a clear answer. For the Braves to be real contenders this year they would need to empty the farm. That's very short sighted.
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To be contenders they need Sale. I'm not advocating we absolutely mist do that but in no way would our farm be emptied to get him. We wouldn't have a top 5 system anymore but it's not going to become a bottom 5 system if the trade happens.
 
thethe said:
It goes both ways though. Bill shainkin's tweet about walker getting price thtee years ago is also an important factor to consider.
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Oh yeah. His trade value 2 or 3 years ago was much higher. The idea is to know which ones are at their peak value and trade those prospects, but that's easier said than done.

I do think we'll continue to upgrade as the offseason goes on and my hope is we have indicated which ones are at peak value and we are sticking to only trading those guys.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Can Segura play short? I would assume that to be the case since Cano is at 2B.

Marte looked like he had promise but I think Seattle rushed him. Walker may be a boom or bust arm, highly thought of but unable to really put it together yet.

Doesn't look like a money move for Seattle, but their payroll is up near $150M I think.

Do the D'Backs go with Drury at 2B? Gosselin?
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I can give you some help here.

Segura is a SS here in Seattle. I think he wound up at second in AZ due to their logjam of middle infielders. How good he is long term is the riddle, although for Seattle, they only control him for two more years. The only guy who saw his amazing 2016 coming was the underrated and prescient Dave Stewart. /end sarcasm

Basically, despite being put together fairly recently, Seattle's core is north of 30 and they're going for it. The payroll here never seems to be an issue. Marte and Walker both have promise, you're correct, but it wasn't on DiPoto's time frame.

My problem is that Taijuan Walker has figured it out, I think, and had some foot surgery to clean up a nagging problem - he could only throw 95 instead of 98 - but more importantly, he's taken his licks and is about to become great. With four years of control.

Taijuan is the kid who needs to touch the paint to confirm that it's wet. He's been dominate (heh) his whole life - why listen to coaches who don't have a clue what it's like to have my stuff? - and so, he's had a couple of 4.50 years, but they're of the type where he has a 1.50 ERA for eight starts, then a 7.00 ERA for seven starts with 8 dingers in 36 innings.

He has control and four filthy pitches - remarkably, that fastball isn't his best pitch. He finally figured out he can't pound the zone up, no matter how bad ass his stuff is, he'll get hurt. So they finally got him to work consistently down, not throw every pitch max effort, and made some adjustments to his delivery to make this new approach repeatable.

Although the Phoenix park is a tough place to pitch, I think I can safely say the DBacks will be happier with the Walker trade than the Miller trade.

I understand DiPoto's decision, but I don't agree with it. Segura could replicate his 2016 up here and they'd still lose the deal. Walker was 4-1 2.88 with 24 hits in 30 innings, K/9 of 9.0 in his last five starts back from his demotion. And there's a lot more in there. Arizona just got their future ace.
 
thewupk said:
There is a clear answer. For the Braves to be real contenders this year they would need to empty the farm. That's very short sighted.
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I agree. I've been saying this for the better part of two years.

I see it three ways:

1. They aren't going to truly contend in 2017 unless they empty the farm. Will they play better than 2016? Maybe. Probably. However, a lot of that rides on the back of continued high levels (probably unsustainable levels) of play from Freeman, Inciarte and Teheran. If just one of those guys fall off from their seasons from a year ago, then 2017 is likely doomed. The rest of the improvement will be built on the backs of a bunch of geriatrics (Kemp, Markakis, Flowers, Johnson, Colon, Dickey) and hoped for improvement from a small handful of young guys (Swanson, Folty, maybe Wisler & Blair). It's like they've built the team from Major League.

2. IF they empty the farm to better compete in 2017, then that is a very short sighted move UNLESS they are going to take payroll into the top 5 realm of MLB. It goes back to the geriatrics. At some point very soon those guys will have to be replaced. They will either be replaced from within with cheap young talent, or from outside with expensive FA talent (not trade if you've gutted the minors), or some combination. I see an increase in payroll but not to a top 5 in MLB level.

3. Ending the rebuild prematurely is inefficient. Trying to compete now reduces the 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 swaps a good trade would bring. Also, with trades it's not just talent but expense that gets traded as well. Let's say the Braves traded Freeman (they won't) as long as they got AT LEAST one player back in the trade who would approach Freeman's value then the difference in money makes that a win for the Braves. Example: Braves send Freeman to Houston for 3B Bregman, OF Kyle Tucker and 1B AJ Reed and in two years Bregman is a 4-5 WAR player making $4M with 3+ years of control, then that's a clear win for the Braves even if Freeman wins the MVP in 2017 for Houston and leads them to the WS. The Braves weren't going to win much in the next two years WITH Freeman, but in addition to the talent coming back from Houston, freeing his money allows another player to be brought in.
 
One thing is certain - if Segura is 80% of what he did in AZ last year, the Mariners now have an elite offense.

SS Segura
LF SmithS
2B Cano
DH Cruz
3B SeagerK
1B Vogelbach - Valencia
RF Gamel - O'Malley
C Zunino
CF Martin

In about June, Tyler O'Neill (Southern League MVP at Jackson) will likely be up from Tacoma and take over RF.
 
You trade for a guy like Sale if you're absolutely convinced he's the missing piece. I think we need a few more pieces before he's the missing piece.

Gov, it looks like Seattle is going to hit the p*ss out of the ball.

HH, it looks like the D-Backs have a lot of 2B candidates. Like you said, Drury and Gosselin, but they also could slide Ahmed or Owings over from SS. Could be a revolving door in the middle of the IF. If the D-Backs go into an aggressive selling mode, I wonder who else might be available.
 
thewupk said:
There is a clear answer. For the Braves to be real contenders this year they would need to empty the farm. That's very short sighted.
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I don't think that's the case. Our farm is at a point where we could afford to lose 3 or 4 of our top 10 and still be one of the best farms systems in baseball. Obviously that doesn't mean we need to make a move just to make a move and you don't just give prospects away. But if you have the opportunity to improve your team for now and the future (i.e. a controllable ace or 3b) then I think you don't let prospects keep you from doing that.
 
Carp said:
I don't think that's the case. Our farm is at a point where we could afford to lose 3 or 4 of our top 10 and still be one of the top 5 farm systems in baseball. Obviously that doesn't mean we need to make a move just to make a move, but if you have the opportunity to improve your team for now and the future (i.e. a controllable ace or 3b) then I think you don't let prospects keep you from doing that.
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Especially when its almost a certainty that half of those prospects you trade will amount to nothing.

Sale

Teheran

Folty

Colon

Dickey

Is that not a top 5 rotation based on the amount of innings? What will that mean for our bullpen?

I can't for the life of me understand why people keeping brining up the first half offense. What relevance does that have to the offense the Braves will have to start the 2017 year?
 
50PoundHead said:
You trade for a guy like Sale if you're absolutely convinced he's the missing piece. I think we need a few more pieces before he's the missing piece.

Gov, it looks like Seattle is going to hit the p*ss out of the ball.

HH, it looks like the D-Backs have a lot of 2B candidates. Like you said, Drury and Gosselin, but they also could slide Ahmed or Owings over from SS. Could be a revolving door in the middle of the IF. If the D-Backs go into an aggressive selling mode, I wonder who else might be available.
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What pieces would you say the Braves are missing? Definitely could use an upgrade at 3B and C but I'd be willing to roll with Flowers as the primary option.

I suppose another reliable top arm in the bullpen but JJ just seems to get the job done while playing for the Braves and we all know the quantity/quality of arms ready to emerge for pen duties.

I really think Sale is the last 'big' piece that is needed to get this team into October baseball.
 
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