Braves sign Rosario - 2 yr / 18M (3rd year club option)

[Enscheff]

Of our biggest gripe is a little bit of an overpay of Rosario, we're pretty fortunate.

Maybe, but this is a pattern with AA, and is the one spot he seems to lack as a GM. This odd tendency to jump on a guy and target him way earlier than he needs to target him. Sometimes it makes sense when targeting a star player (Donaldson), but targeting guys like Smyly and Rosario early make no sense.

Signing Rosario early not only leads to an overpay. It also leads to be unable to pivot and grab a bargain when it presents itself. With so many acceptable OF options remaining, he could have waited to see if a Conforto bargain fell into his lap. If it didn't, then fall back and sign Rosario. He would still be available...I doubt teams were lining up to sign him right now. No team was like, "oh man, Rosario is the missing piece to our championship roster...focus all efforts to sign him before the Braves do!".

 

[McCann'sCans]

Maybe, but this is a pattern with AA, and is the one spot he seems to lack as a GM. This odd tendency to jump on a guy and target him way earlier than he needs to target him. Sometimes it makes sense when targeting a star player (Donaldson), but targeting guys like Smyly and Rosario early make no sense.

Signing Rosario early not only leads to an overpay. It also leads to be unable to pivot and grab a bargain when it presents itself. With so many acceptable OF options remaining, he could have waited to see if a Conforto bargain fell into his lap. If it didn't, then fall back and sign Rosario. He would still be available...I doubt teams were lining up to sign him right now. No team was like, "oh man, Rosario is the missing piece to our championship roster...focus all efforts to sign him before the Braves do!".

I tend to think that the GM has more information than me. Maybe it leads to me giving them the benefit of the doubt more often than I should, but for all we know Soler said two weeks ago "no thanks, I have an offer for five years somewhere else," every other free agent outfielder told AA they didn't want to come to Atlanta, and Rosario said he would sign for $9m otherwise he's heading somewhere else. At that point, you might have to overpay to grab him just to make sure you're not trotting Heredia out there every day.

I say this as someone who has worked in both bigtime power five college basketball and football programs only to have fans roast me on Twitter for not offering someone they think we should have offered or for taking one recruit over another or for not giving someone enough playing time. 99 times out of 100, there was a reason behind it- the kid had a 8 on his ACT and couldn't get in so we didn't offer, the kid had a stress fracture that no one knows about so he's on a minutes restriction, the kid got drunk on an official visit and puked in the head coach's office so we took the other recruit (all of these things happened). At the end of the day, even the beat writers know far less than fans they think they do in a typical sports team. So I try to just assume that if someone does something that doesn't make sense to me, its because they have a whole pile of information that I'm not privy to.

 

[NYCBrave]

Maybe, but this is a pattern with AA, and is the one spot he seems to lack as a GM. This odd tendency to jump on a guy and target him way earlier than he needs to target him. Sometimes it makes sense when targeting a star player (Donaldson), but targeting guys like Smyly and Rosario early make no sense.

Signing Rosario early not only leads to an overpay. It also leads to be unable to pivot and grab a bargain when it presents itself. With so many acceptable OF options remaining, he could have waited to see if a Conforto bargain fell into his lap. If it didn't, then fall back and sign Rosario. He would still be available...I doubt teams were lining up to sign him right now. No team was like, "oh man, Rosario is the missing piece to our championship roster...focus all efforts to sign him before the Braves do!".

Good analysis and it's certainly interesting. AA seemed set this year on cementing the roster by a certain point. You have to figure the guys who haven't yet signed could very well be behind others in ramping up with the shortened spring training. Spring training games start today and the first game of the season is a few shorts weeks away. Will guys like Soler and Pham even have enough time to be in game shape (especially timing as a hitter) to be ready to start the season?

 

[striker42]

The Braves apparently attempted to sign Rosario last offseason before he went to the Indians. Then AA traded for him in spite of the fact that he was on the DL with an abdominal strain. And now he gave him a two year contract.

AA is not stupid and has analytics that go beyond what we have. So I don't think this is AA getting antsy and jumping too early. I think he sees something that makes him legitimately think Rosario is a good bet.

 

[Hudson2]

The Braves apparently attempted to sign Rosario last offseason before he went to the Indians. Then AA traded for him in spite of the fact that he was on the DL with an abdominal strain. And now he gave him a two year contract.

AA is not stupid and has analytics that go beyond what we have. So I don't think this is AA getting antsy and jumping too early. I think he sees something that makes him legitimately think Rosario is a good bet.

Agreed. AA > fans

 

[Enscheff]

The Braves apparently attempted to sign Rosario last offseason before he went to the Indians. Then AA traded for him in spite of the fact that he was on the DL with an abdominal strain. And now he gave him a two year contract.

AA is not stupid and has analytics that go beyond what we have. So I don't think this is AA getting antsy and jumping too early. I think he sees something that makes him legitimately think Rosario is a good bet.

Really? Because those same analytics told him the short bump in stuff for Smyly in 2020 meant he was someone worth jumping at early in the off season. How did that work out?

Are we suggesting AA has some sort of advanced metrics beyond statcast data that predicted Rosario's hot month immediately after coming off the DL?

Only time will tell who was right, but I've already stated my bet is on Pham being both cheaper and better than Rosario in 2022. Further, AA was in a position to wait out the market and let a bargain fall into his lap, and didn't take advantage. That, to me, is one of his few weaknesses as a roster builder.

 

[striker42]

Really? Because those same analytics told him the short bump in stuff for Smyly in 2020 meant he was someone worth jumping at early in the off season. How did that work out?

Are we suggesting AA has some sort of advanced metrics beyond statcast data that predicted Rosario's hot month immediately after coming off the DL?

Only time will tell who was right, but I've already stated my bet is on Pham being both cheaper and better than Rosario in 2022. Further, AA was in a position to wait out the market and let a bargain fall into his lap, and didn't take advantage. That, to me, is one of his few weaknesses as a roster builder.

AA could end up being 100% wrong on Rosario. That's not really my point. My point was that I don't think it was AA jumping at making a signing. I think his past behavior with Rosario means AA legitimately believes he's a good bet and prefers Rosario over someone like Pham. He might be completely wrong in that preference but I think that's more the reason than AA simply being impatient.

 

[Super]

AA could end up being 100% wrong on Rosario. That's not really my point. My point was that I don't think it was AA jumping at making a signing. I think his past behavior with Rosario means AA legitimately believes he's a good bet and prefers Rosario over someone like Pham. He might be completely wrong in that preference but I think that's more the reason than AA simply being impatient.

yeah the Rosario situation isn’t necessarily similar to the Smyly one at all. it may indicate a weakness in something particular (idk what) but AA could’ve seen an opportunity in Smyly but just always liked Rosario which would make the situations not remotely similar. we don’t have enough info. but the info we do have i lean towards AA just liking Rosario.