JIM BOWDEN @JimBowdenESPNxm 2m
Braves continue pursuit of LH relievers including: Oliver Perez SEA; Mike Dunn MIA, Glen Perkins (unlikely), Scott Downs and James Russell
Anybody know what type of contract Aramis Ramirez has? He's obviously a huge injury risk but he's still an impact bat when healthy. I know we need a leadoff hitter but a healthy Aramis could be a nice addition to the lineup fo
r the stretch run.
Simmons(we know Fredi isnt moving him out of this spot)
Heyward
JUpton
Freeman
McCann
Uggla
BUpton
Johnson
Schafer, Laird, Valbeuna, Gattis, Terdoslavich
Hudson
Minor
Teheran
Beachy
Medlen
Kimbrel, Walden, Avilan, Wood, Russell, Varvaro, Carpenter
Is this team good enough to win a World Series?? If not, ask yourself, what else would we need...thats what Wren needs to determine.
I'd say it has about a 10% chance. And anything that Wren could conceivably do might push the odds up to around 12%. What do you think?
Not a good chance at all to be honest. I think we need to make a splash. Get an ace or another big bat. Something to kind of shake up the roster a bit. Guys have gotten too comfy.
Thing is no team has a better than 15% chance. I'm just point out that winning in the post-season is mainly a matter of luck (see Giants last season for a recent example). General managers at this point can make moves that affect things at the margin. We need to be realistic about that.
I think a lefty for the pen is probably the one move we should make this this trade deadline. The cost will not be too high and the need is obvious. But it will not dramatically change the odds of our winning the world series. Those will go up from about 10% to about 10.5% if we get a good lefty.
Yep, that's the thing that everyone misses (and in my humble opinion has missed for the last 20 years). If you have 8 relatively equal teams in the playoffs (ignoring the silly one game wild card game) the chances of any one team winning is 12.5%.
no one is doubting that we win it all if we had a Kimbrel type closer back in the day.
After the fact it is easy to say having this player or that player would have made a difference. But ex ante, having Kimbrel rather than some of those other closers would have only increased our chances of winning the WS by 1 or 2 percentage points.