1.6 bwar. Drs > uzr
Braves trade Mallex and Simmons to M's for Gohara and Burrows
- Thread starter Enscheff
- Start date
1.6 bwar. Drs > uzr
msstate7
Well-known member
Mallex (24) in '17...
AAA = .263/.325/.392, 8.3% bb, 22.0% k
MLB = .267/.331/.358, 8.7% bb, 21.2% k
In 76 games (264 PA), mallex is 0.9 fWAR; that's ~ 2.0 over 600 PA.
Gohara (21) in '17...
A+ = 9.66 k9, 1.99 FIP
AA = 10.38 k9, 2.52 FIP
AAA = 12.23 k9, 3.54 FIP
MLB = 9.74 k9, 2.72 FIP (doesn't include today)
In 3 starts, gohara is 0.5 fWAR (doesn't include today); that's 5.0 over 30 starts
I say gohara is better this minute
He's exhibited no signs of buffoonery up to this point.
Correct, but the trade didn't happen now.
The trade will also not suddenly be a win for the Ms if Gohara blows out his shoulder in his next start.
Most folks around here find it impossible to separate process from results. This discussion is proving who those people are.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Unless the braves saw this from gohara
They scouted him. He had done well recently. They knew he had to be on the 49 man. The concerns were about weight and alcohol not talent.
Mallex is not a premium defender. Noodle arm. Bad routes. He's just fast.
If we should care about defensive metrics like the Wufpak (take that fsu) then pull Pache up now and watch him be 4 war player while hitting 150 with no power. That guy is an elite defender
Southcack77
Well-known member
I still don't quite understand how Mallex was going to build value in AAA above and beyond what four or five clubs (and presumably the Braves shopped Mallex to anyone that would listen) felt at the time of the trade.
I think you could still be right that Mallex puts up a 3 WAR season if someone ever chooses to give him 600 PA (though it will have to happen soon before his speed fades). I just don't see how he was going to convince anyone of that in AAA or as a fourth OF in Atlanta.
......
Second thought: Why were you so high on Drew Smyly? That seems unlike you. A starter with two years of control. His stuff is weird and he does get strike outs, but that had never actually lead to a ton of success (replacement level bWAR in 2016). And he had an extensive injury history and only two years of control.
Third thought: If that was a good move to make for the Braves for winning in 2017, and if the Braves were all about winning in 2017, why did they choose to go with a high upside kid in A ball over the surer thing in the majors?
....
thewupk is pretty much always right so maybe I'd better concede the 3 WAR will happen.
Whether it happens or not will depend if someone puts him in CF full time. I still see him as a lesser version of Ender both offensively and defensively. He does make up some value with his base running.
chop2chip
Well-known member
I think this particular trade has plenty of breathing room for evaluation where process can be discussed.
The Braves obviously were higher on Gohara than most and the price was very modest considering the upside, even at the time.
Given the current situation of all the players involved, the Braves have to be the happiest. That's sufficient enough for me to score this a win regardless of what ultimately occurs with Gohara or Mallex. These are the types should try to make when your window of competition is a years away.
FWIW, I would have supported a similar trade if Ender was the centerpiece. I don't think the Braves could have erred picking between the two.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Fair. I've used both in this thread because I prefer baseball reference if I'm looking at contract info and fangraphs for stats overall.
I was actually very surprised that fangraphs had smyly at a 2.0 war for 2016 and BR had him dead on replacement level.
Fangraphs uses FIP and BR is calculated more on what actually happened so I suppose FIP suggests Smiley was unlucky. Or maybe he got a lot of infield flies in addition to Ks.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
It's starting to look like a good move and I will admit I was skeptical when the deal was made.
msstate7
Well-known member
We should use ccWAR. It's a pretty complicated formula that I came up with. Works like this...
Gohara fWAR = 0.7
Gohara bWAR = 0.1
Add the 2...
0.7 + 0.1 = 0.8
Divide the sum by 2...
0.8/2 = 0.4
The quotient is ccWAR.
Luis gohara ccWAR is 0.4.
If any of you need help using this stat, pm me
I was talking more about Mallex being 1.6 WAR on BR and .8 on FG. fWAR is used most of the time unless bWAR makes their argument better.
fWAR loves Alex Wood so that one gets used for him.
I tend to like bWAR for pitchers and a "somewhere in the middle" approach for hitters. I wasn't calling you out, just saying there's an obvious lack of consistency all-around.
am confused; pm sent
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Everyone's just making up their own stats.
fWAR assumes a pitcher has no control over his batted balls (FIP - fielding independent), which is wrong.
bWAR assumes a pitcher has complete control over his batted balls (RA/9 - runs allowed), which is even more wrong.
If I'm just looking up guys I will go with fWAR. I only use BRef for contract and service time info now, though sometimes I'll use their play index search.
This is why I have been leaning more towards xwOBA from Baseball Savant. This value is based on Ks, BBs, and the type of contact the pitcher allows including launch angle (grounders, liners, flyballs, pop ups) and exit velocity (some pitchers get hit harder than other pitchers). Since the outcomes for each batted ball type are averages from the entire league, park effects and defensive skill is removed.
The issue with xwOBA is that it's a rate stat, which doesn't reward a guy for pitching 200 innings more than a guy who only pitched 140. Combining xwOBA and innings is trivial, but it's still a manual process.
To me, that's what I want to know..."How good is the pitcher?" not, "How good were the ultimate results?".
bWAR assumes a pitcher has complete control over his batted balls (RA/9 - runs allowed), which is even more wrong.
If I'm just looking up guys I will go with fWAR. I only use BRef for contract and service time info now, though sometimes I'll use their play index search.
This is why I have been leaning more towards xwOBA from Baseball Savant. This value is based on Ks, BBs, and the type of contact the pitcher allows including launch angle (grounders, liners, flyballs, pop ups) and exit velocity (some pitchers get hit harder than other pitchers). Since the outcomes for each batted ball type are averages from the entire league, park effects and defensive skill is removed.
The issue with xwOBA is that it's a rate stat, which doesn't reward a guy for pitching 200 innings more than a guy who only pitched 140. Combining xwOBA and innings is trivial, but it's still a manual process.
To me, that's what I want to know..."How good is the pitcher?" not, "How good were the ultimate results?".
Orphan Black
Approaching Buddy Hernandez Territory
I'm surprised at how efficient he has been. From some of his minor stats I thought he would be into 100 pitches by the 6th most of the time.