Braves trade Wisler, Sims, Tucker to Reds for Adam Duvall

The trade feels more like an early start to filling out next years team more than a let’s improve and win this year move.
Duvall is an upgrade over Tucker and the current group of 4th outfielders.

Not a bad trade giving up three players with no future in Atlanta for a player that might be a decent bench piece.
 
Albies 2B
Acuna CF
Freeman 1B
Markakis RF
Duvall LF
Flowers/Suzuki C
Camargo 3B
Swanson SS

bench: Inciarte, Suzuki/Flowers, Flaherty, Culberson

Something similar to that vs lefties.....not too bad

Albies 2b
Acuna LF
Freeman 1B
Markakis RF
Flowers/Suzuki C
Inciarte CF
Camargo 3b
Swanson SS

Bench: Duvall, Suzuki/Flowers, Culberson, Flaherty

That lineup vs righties

Actually hoping Flaherty is let go with the lineup changes today
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
Albies 2B
Acuna CF
Freeman 1B
Markakis RF
Duvall LF
Flowers/Suzuki C
Camargo 3B
Swanson SS

bench: Inciarte, Suzuki/Flowers, Flaherty, Culberson

Something similar to that vs lefties.....not too bad

Albies 2b
Acuna LF
Freeman 1B
Markakis RF
Flowers/Suzuki C
Inciarte CF
Camargo 3b
Swanson SS

Bench: Duvall, Suzuki/Flowers, Culberson, Flaherty

That lineup vs righties

Actually hoping Flaherty is let go with the lineup changes today
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Now If AA could make another move today that would provide an upgrade to Flaherty I would feel ok about the lineup the rest of the way.
 
I love this trade. Wisler and Sims need to pitch in the majors if they are ever going to develop and that wont hapoen with us. Also clears 2 spots on the 40 man roster which we will need this offseason.
 
Not a major upgrade in anyway but it does help this team out and gives up depth for a few more years. And we gave up literally nothing for it imo. We will downgrade defensively somewhat but I think the upgrade offensively will be much bigger. Plus Ender likely comes in as a defensive sub the last 2 innings or so too with the lead. Nothing to complain about here.
 
Interesting trade. Personally, I'm not sure the extra offense you get from Duvall in the platoon is enough of an offset from what I see as a slight step back on defense from the Inciarte CF, Acuna LF alignment. Add to that, Inciarte has been a better second half performer during his career. So I see the 2018 benefit of this move being more about depth and insurance. The cost is so low, it's probably a worthwhile move just for that.

Duvall will get paid handsomely in his first year of arbitration due to his career HR and RBI. $4m - $5m maybe? It is not out of the question he's non-tendered, but probably unlikely. In any event, Duvall should be valued as a player with very modest surplus value in 2019, and no surplus value beyond that unless he breaks out. He's at least an option to contribute in 2019 and provide some roster insurance / leverage with Markakis a free agent.

Tucker I don't see having any long-term value. He's a platoon corner OF with below average defense that's out of options. I wish him well, but think its very unlikely the Reds carry him on the 40-man this Winter. Wisler (no options remaining) and Sims (one option remaining) are reasonable lottery tickets for a team like the Reds with constant SP struggles. On the off chance they win the lottery on one of the two of them, the prize will be a cheap back-end starter with limited upside that figures to be non-tendered in the first or second year of arbitration.
 
Inciarte v LHP
2018 48 wRC+
2016 and 2017 97 wRC+
Career 72 wRC+

Oddly he hit lefties better than righties in 2016.

Duvall v LHP

2018 101 wRC+
2016/2017 121 wRC+
Career: 108 wRC+

Duvall was good vs LHP in 2017 (134), was more in line with career numbers in 2016 (106).


.......

I like Duvall as a fourth OF. He plays good defense in a corner and gives you something with the bat particular vs LHP. You can play him vs LHP and RHP in a pinch and he's not going to be horrendous and he'll play good defense. That's an upgrade over Preston Tucker who couldn't hit LHP at all and was bad in the field.

However, he's nearly 30 so the value of his remaining 3 seasons of control is perhaps questionable as his defense and ability to make contact may decline. His numbers in general have declined since his debut.

I'm not sure what he's looking at in arbitration but he might also be relatively expensive for a fourth OF. As a starter, I wouldn't be too enthused and I doubt AA would be either. I'm not sure he's a true platoon guy as it's not clear whether he is going to be dominant from one side.

I can't complain a great deal about what they gave up. I did not see any of those players as contributors though I still hold some belief that Wisler might do all right on the back end of someone's rotation. They were guys that were barely deserving of a 40 man roster spot and dealing with them as theoretical assets may have been a bit of a headache. It would have been hard to justify giving Sims or Wisler another opportunity in the rotation over the other available options in 2019.

My question is whether there was some better place these marginal values could have been deployed? Did the Braves address a weakness that needed to be addressed with them?

All things considered the Braves are probably at least a fraction better on the bench than they were yesterday. Maybe they've improved themselves vs LHP a tick and that's worth a win somewhere? If so, it is worthy.
 
dak said:
Interesting trade. Personally, I'm not sure the extra offense you get from Duvall in the platoon is enough of an offset from what I see as a slight step back on defense from the Inciarte CF, Acuna LF alignment. Add to that, Inciarte has been a better second half performer during his career. So I see the 2018 benefit of this move being more about depth and insurance. The cost is so low, it's probably a worthwhile move just for that.

Duvall will get paid handsomely in his first year of arbitration due to his career HR and RBI. $4m - $5m maybe? It is not out of the question he's non-tendered, but probably unlikely. In any event, Duvall should be valued as a player with very modest surplus value in 2019, and no surplus value beyond that unless he breaks out. He's at least an option to contribute in 2019 and provide some roster insurance / leverage with Markakis a free agent.

Tucker I don't see having any long-term value. He's a platoon corner OF with below average defense that's out of options. I wish him well, but think its very unlikely the Reds carry him on the 40-man this Winter. Wisler (no options remaining) and Sims (one option remaining) are reasonable lottery tickets for a team like the Reds with constant SP struggles. On the off chance they win the lottery on one of the two of them, the prize will be a cheap back-end starter with limited upside that figures to be non-tendered in the first or second year of arbitration.
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Good take. A couple related thoughts:

1) The defense-offense trade-off will turn on how competent a center fielder Acuna is. I think the jury is very much out on him in terms of defense.

2) I think you are a bit high on Duvall's likely arbitration award. While the process does favor home runs, it also gives a lot of weight to another old-school metric, batting average. If he gets used mainly against lefty starting pitching his counting stats will also take a hit.

3) I agree that for a team like the Reds, Wisler and Sims are sensible pickups. They will be given 20 or so starts at the major league level and probably some opportunities in the pen over the next year. I think they will ultimately both turn out to be useful pieces of a major league bullpen. Even if just one of them turns out that way, it will be a fair trade for the Reds. If both do or one develops into a useful starting pitcher, the Reds win the trade.

Completely unrelated addendum: Jose Peraza currently at 1.9 WAR for 2018 with a slash line of .290/.336/.391. Not bad for the leprechaun.
 
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zbhargrove said:
BABIP 30-40 points lower than his career norms... mostly bad luck. Walk rate up, K-rate around the same.
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Didn’t make sense, but now you mention his BABIP number and there you have it. I obviously didn’t dig into his numbers, so thanks for pointing that out.
 
dak said:
Interesting trade. Personally, I'm not sure the extra offense you get from Duvall in the platoon is enough of an offset from what I see as a slight step back on defense from the Inciarte CF, Acuna LF alignment. Add to that, Inciarte has been a better second half performer during his career. So I see the 2018 benefit of this move being more about depth and insurance. The cost is so low, it's probably a worthwhile move just for that.

Duvall will get paid handsomely in his first year of arbitration due to his career HR and RBI. $4m - $5m maybe? It is not out of the question he's non-tendered, but probably unlikely. In any event, Duvall should be valued as a player with very modest surplus value in 2019, and no surplus value beyond that unless he breaks out. He's at least an option to contribute in 2019 and provide some roster insurance / leverage with Markakis a free agent.

Tucker I don't see having any long-term value. He's a platoon corner OF with below average defense that's out of options. I wish him well, but think its very unlikely the Reds carry him on the 40-man this Winter. Wisler (no options remaining) and Sims (one option remaining) are reasonable lottery tickets for a team like the Reds with constant SP struggles. On the off chance they win the lottery on one of the two of them, the prize will be a cheap back-end starter with limited upside that figures to be non-tendered in the first or second year of arbitration.
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Really good fit if you look at he and Ender as bridges to Pache and Jenista in 2020 - strong defensively, tie up little money, and could possibly be moved for something of value at whatever point the youngsters are deemed ready.
 
nsacpi said:
Good take. A couple related thoughts:

1) The defense-offense trade-off will turn on how competent a center fielder Acuna is. I think the jury is very much out on him in terms of defense.

2) I think you are a bit high on Duvall's likely arbitration award. While the process does favor home runs, it also gives a lot of weight to another old-school metric, batting average. If he gets used mainly against lefty starting pitching his counting stats will also take a hit.

3) I agree that for a team like the Reds, Wisler and Sims are sensible pickups. They will be given 20 or so starts at the major league level and probably some opportunities in the pen over the next year. I think they will ultimately both turn out to be useful pieces of a major league bullpen. Even if just one of them turns out that way, it will be a fair trade for the Reds. If both do or one develops into a useful starting pitcher, the Reds win the trade.

Completely unrelated addendum: Jose Peraza currently at 1.9 WAR for 2018 with a slash line of .290/.336/.391. Not bad for the leprechaun.
Click to expand...

Have been keeping tabs on Jose. Not that anyone wants him back, but he's certainly been useful for them since they don't have anyone in their system that profiles as a SS. Going to be really interesting to see what they do moving forward - if they keep Scooter at 2B and Suarez at 3B, do you turn Senzel and India into corner OFs? If so, they may not be terribly far from contending once they get Homer's money off the books.
 
CyYoung31 said:
Because he’s not a great hitter.
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After sleeping on it I get it. Maybe our hitting coach can fix Duvall and he tears it up in his time with us and AA can use that along with his years of control left to move him in the offseason and fill RF if we don't re-sign Nick or to fill another area of need in the future. In other words it's AA thinking at least three steps ahead of the competition.
 
Ozzie's Chainz said:
After sleeping on it I get it. Maybe our hitting coach can fix Duvall and he tears it up in his time with us and AA can use that along with his years of control left to move him in the offseason and fill RF if we don't re-sign Nick or to fill another area of need in the future. In other words it's AA thinking at least three steps ahead of the competition.
Click to expand...

Of course, if our pitching coach fixes him, and he begins to tear it up... maybe we want to keep him.
 
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