Braves Will Shop Julio Teheran At Winter Meetings, Per Report

[Hudson2]

If they “did” trade Julio ...Julio $10 mil, JJ $5 mil, Matt Adams 4mil. I think AA is looking to get players HE likes and I bet he isn’t big on Julio. AA is either about to shed Kemp or sign someone. He is freeing up the cash for something. I don’t see him trading any of our prospects at this point, but I do see him churning our MLB roster.

I think Markakis could be traded and only eat a few million bucks so that would give us quite a bit to spend if he wanted too. Gaining any money from a Kemp trade would be gravy. AA like to wheel and deal so it’ll be interesting to see what he does over the next few weeks. But I see him spending money rather than trading prospects. Especially after the punishment we just got dealt.

 

[Hudson2]

I wonder if AA has the same feelings on 'veteran influences' that the previous regime did.

If the Braves had a competent pitching coach I'd be more comfortable with the relative inexperience of that rotation.

I agree. Pitching coach would be my first priority with all the young pitching coming.

 

[jpx7]

You're not gonna want that...

It's only a problem if the Braves have serious designs on competing in the 2018 season. If not, take the assets and let the younger starters sink or swim this year.

 

[Carp]

I had a long post that somehow got deleted. Long story short, pitching market is thin. Should still be a good market for Julio. Comparable value to pitchers like Lynn and Cobb. Target the teams that are interested in those 2 players.

 

[clvclv]

And yes...it's a risk just as not selling high was but he's a career 3.5 ish ERA pitcher with a 1.2 WHIP and over 1000 innings in his pocket. If they go out and get an ace...well alright then. No one is sitting around saying don't trade him, but selling low seems counter productive to what the Braves want /need to achieve in the short and long term.

With the questions about just how much money AA has to work with, this is an interesting point. If you ignore the "the sky is falling" payroll is going to be slashed theorists for a moment, you realize there have been reports (quiet ones, mind you) that have mentioned us making a run at Arrieta. I have no idea whether this is being considered any more than anyone knows that it's not. Assuming it is and you could get Frazier for a package centered around Julio, having him in play makes some sense. It would probably signal that they're probably sold on Riley as well IMO, because playing on that level on the SP market likely precludes them from seriously upgrading 3B before Riley arrives - even us sunny guys find it tough to see the Braves carrying more than two $20+ million per year players. If you move Julio's salary, the payroll increase to replace him with Arrieta is more in line with what it would be if you added Moustakas without dealing anyone.

Like everyone else, I'm not really sure that trading Julio at this point nets you more than Frazier (if it does that), but if it does it arguably puts you in a better position moving forward. More than anything else, this probably shows that they're sold on enough of the young arms that they feel it's time to do what many around here have wanted - turn some of this pitching into hitting. My guess is that they've at least seen enough from Folty, Gohara, Soroka, Wright, and possibly Newcomb, Fried, and Allard to feel like they're not going to have a problem filling out a solid to good rotation - especially if they get someone to front it and slide everyone down into more comfortable slots. If you make Gohara a #2 and Folty a #3, suddenly you've taken a lot of weight off of the other guys' shoulders.

 

[Chico]

I keep going back to the Jays fan who said AA will be involved in every rumor, but the deals that happen you won't see coming because there are never any media leaks.

If Teheran is traded this offseason I think it'll be because we either traded for or signed a new opening day starter. I highly doubt we're going in to 2018 with Folty as our #1.

 

[Southcack77]

Trading Teheran could also be about not wanting to pay him 11 million in 2019. While that's not a bad price for a #4 starter, the idea is that the Braves should have cheaper options to fill in at the back end. If they want to go out and get someone for the top of the rotation, or entertain getting into the FA market next season that 11 million might be necessary.

I think the Braves front office is going to be a bit opaque until they start making their actual moves.

 

[Chico]

Trading Teheran could also be about not wanting to pay him 11 million in 2019. While that's not a bad price for a #4 starter, the idea is that the Braves should have cheaper options to fill in at the back end. If they want to go out and get someone for the top of the rotation, or entertain getting into the FA market next season that 11 million might be necessary.

I think the Braves front office is going to be a bit opaque until they start making their actual moves.

I think it's the smart move to stay opaque, since nobody has any clue as to what we're going to do. AA didn't even back up Coppy's statement that we needed 1 to 2 BP arms. He said there were already talks of what to do with the pen and 3B when he was hired. He said he liked Riley but also that there were reasons players had 3 option years leaving it wide open for him to be looking at a 3B. These other reports abut Moose and Teheran sound like guesses more than anything. I'd say it's more likely we sign Frazier than Moose and just as likely we trade Folty as it is we trade Julio.

If we acquire a starting OF'er now that'll hurt us in trades for Markakis or Kemp. If we trade Julio now (if that's the plan) that'll hurt us in attempts to land a #1. AA should be looking at any scenario, but also staying as quiet as he can for now.

 

[50PoundHead]

So how many years do you toss him out there to try and let him rebuild some value? He is what he is. He's a MOR guy.

Right now, i think the market sees him as a back-end of the rotation guy. He needs to re-build value to be perceived as a solid MOR guy. I like Teheran's approach. Always have, but he sagged badly in 2017 due to a sharp downturn in his control numbers. The game has changed and pitchers with his approach are often viewed as filler right now.

I've been surprised before and I'm not sold on a guy like Clint Frazier, but I don't think there's any way the Yankees would part with him for Teheran.

 

[Russ2dollas]

The chances of him regaining his plus-plus control and being a 3 win pitcher are big enough that I would rather not see him bounce back for another team that got him for a FV 50 pitching prospect.

Just because they screwed up by not selling high doesn’t mean they have to double down and compound the error by selling low. It’s time to stop chaining mistakes together into long winding cluster****s.

I will always say it depends on the return.

We have been told AA isn't into collecting assets. He keeps elite prospects and uses the others to improve the MLB team. So if we move JT to move salary and or for filler guys then I will hate it. If he can find a guy that helps us now with control or a top 10 in our system guy then that changes things.

 

[Chico]

I will always say it depends on the return.

We have been told AA isn't into collecting assets. He keeps elite prospects and uses the others to improve the MLB team. So if we move JT to move salary and or for filler guys then I will hate it. If he can find a guy that helps us now with control or a top 10 in our system guy then that changes things.

It all depends on how teams view Julio. If his 2018 is like his other even numbered years of 2014 and 2016 you're getting a 3.2 win player. If it's like 2015 and 017 you're getting a 1.1 win player. If a team looks at him as a 2.2 win player and cuts it down the middle you're still looking at being in the neighborhood of Cobb and Lynn.

Those guys are projected to get somewhere around 4/55.. Julio is owed 3/31. That is a savings overall even though it's comparing 3 years to 4 years. The big difference is Julio is 26. So we'd be looking for a team who prefers 3 years to 4 years, values young players, and values keeping their draft picks. That team will also have to be willing to give up the necessary prospects to obtain Julio.

 

[nsacpi]

It all depends on how teams view Julio. If his 2018 is like his other even numbered years of 2014 and 2016 you're getting a 3.2 win player. If it's like 2015 and 017 you're getting a 1.1 win player. If a team looks at him as a 2.2 win player and cuts it down the middle you're still looking at being in the neighborhood of Cobb and Lynn.

Those guys are projected to get somewhere around 4/55.. Julio is owed 3/31. That is a savings overall even though it's comparing 3 years to 4 years. The big difference is Julio is 26. So we'd be looking for a team who prefers 3 years to 4 years, values young players, and values keeping their draft picks. That team will also have to be willing to give up the necessary prospects to obtain Julio.

2-2.5 is the appropriate valuation for Teheran. If someone values him higher I'm fine with a trade.

 

[Russ2dollas]

It all depends on how teams view Julio. If his 2018 is like his other even numbered years of 2014 and 2016 you're getting a 3.2 win player. If it's like 2015 and 017 you're getting a 1.1 win player. If a team looks at him as a 2.2 win player and cuts it down the middle you're still looking at being in the neighborhood of Cobb and Lynn.

Those guys are projected to get somewhere around 4/55.. Julio is owed 3/31. That is a savings overall even though it's comparing 3 years to 4 years. The big difference is Julio is 26. So we'd be looking for a team who prefers 3 years to 4 years, values young players, and values keeping their draft picks. That team will also have to be willing to give up the necessary prospects to obtain Julio.

Julio is even better b/c he's only due 2 years and the third year is an option. He's less money than Mike Minor.

I agree that I'm not sure who the match is. Maybe it's someone who needs a cheap option. Maybe it's someone like the Yankees who has spent a ton of money on offense and wants to save money somewhere.

I would be very upset if we gave away Julio for a FV 50 lottery ticket or two.

Honestly I'd be surprised if he leaves w/o us getting someone who plays this year. I'm not going to fight with people about his FV money and what a good deal is. Maybe it's a package. But if JT goes I bet we are planning on putting the headliner of that deal at 3B or corner OF and expecting 2+ WAR. Making something up, let's say they think Moran is that guy and the Stros have him blocked and want Tehran (none of that is likely true).

 

[clvclv]

Julio is even better b/c he's only due 2 years and the third year is an option. He's less money than Mike Minor.

I agree that I'm not sure who the match is. Maybe it's someone who needs a cheap option. Maybe it's someone like the Yankees who has spent a ton of money on offense and wants to save money somewhere.

I would be very upset if we gave away Julio for a FV 50 lottery ticket or two.

Honestly I'd be surprised if he leaves w/o us getting someone who plays this year. I'm not going to fight with people about his FV money and what a good deal is. Maybe it's a package. But if JT goes I bet we are planning on putting the headliner of that deal at 3B or corner OF and expecting 2+ WAR. Making something up, let's say they think Moran is that guy and the Stros have him blocked and want Tehran (none of that is likely true).

I also can't imagine that's the case, but if AA's not sold on Riley he ought to be all over Moran IMO.

 

[Enscheff]

Julio is even better b/c he's only due 2 years and the third year is an option. He's less money than Mike Minor.

I agree that I'm not sure who the match is. Maybe it's someone who needs a cheap option. Maybe it's someone like the Yankees who has spent a ton of money on offense and wants to save money somewhere.

I would be very upset if we gave away Julio for a FV 50 lottery ticket or two.

Honestly I'd be surprised if he leaves w/o us getting someone who plays this year. I'm not going to fight with people about his FV money and what a good deal is. Maybe it's a package. But if JT goes I bet we are planning on putting the headliner of that deal at 3B or corner OF and expecting 2+ WAR. Making something up, let's say they think Moran is that guy and the Stros have him blocked and want Tehran (none of that is likely true).

You don’t want the Braves to take 1-2 FV 50 lottery tickets, but you’d be fine with Moran for Teheran?

That’s...illogical.

 

[Carp]

Right now, i think the market sees him as a back-end of the rotation guy. He needs to re-build value to be perceived as a solid MOR guy. I like Teheran's approach. Always have, but he sagged badly in 2017 due to a sharp downturn in his control numbers. The game has changed and pitchers with his approach are often viewed as filler right now.

I've been surprised before and I'm not sold on a guy like Clint Frazier, but I don't think there's any way the Yankees would part with him for Teheran.

JT wasn't nearly as bad as people like to think. He was still roughly a league average pitcher and has a history of pitching like a 2-3. I have hard time believing that the majority of teams view him as a back end starter.

 

[50PoundHead]

JT wasn't nearly as bad as people like to think. He was still roughly a league average pitcher and has a history of pitching like a 2-3. I have hard time believing that the majority of teams view him as a back end starter.

I don't think he was particularly bad, but I also don't think there will be a big market for him. The question is going to be whether other teams think the lack of control and long ball problems he experienced in 2017 are solvable. I'll be curious to see the offers. I seriously doubt it will be anything like Clint Frazier.

 

[Russ2dollas]

You don’t want the Braves to take 1-2 FV 50 lottery tickets, but you’d be fine with Moran for Teheran?

That’s...illogical.

Didn’t say I wanted it

 

[thewupk]

JT wasn't nearly as bad as people like to think. He was still roughly a league average pitcher and has a history of pitching like a 2-3. I have hard time believing that the majority of teams view him as a back end starter.

Julio has posted sub 2 WAR seasons in 2 of his last 3 seasons. Right or wrong that is what GM's are going to see. And if Julio was not a Brave and some rando starter on another team that's how we would view him too.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Julio has posted sub 2 WAR seasons in 2 of his last 3 seasons. Right or wrong that is what GM's are going to see. And if Julio was not a Brave and some rando starter on another team that's how we would view him too.

It's because the took off his right arm and sewed Coppy's on instead.