Camp ends! Finals moves TBA for Opening Day.

The way I see the pen shaking out is this. Seven spots are likely taken: Viz, Johnson, Ramirez, Minty, Freeman, Winkler and someone who will be signed or traded for this off-season.

Snit seems to favor 8 in the pen. So there is potentially room for 1 more. The question is whether we keep all or Morris, Brothers, Krol, Cabrera, Jackson, and Rivero on the 40-man to compete for that one spot.

Hursh, Lindgren, Wisler, Blair and Biddle have options left. I think this is a factor which will weigh in favor of keeping them on the 40-man. Might not be the decisive factor, but it is a consideration.
 
nsacpi said:
we burned it in

August when we went him down for 10 days...small thing but dumb...asleep at the switch...but then we also screwed up some basic stuff like thinking we didn't have room on the 40 man for Micah and him finding out on twitter about it

gold standard organization...braves way...blah blah blah
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The optional assignment rules are still a bit confusing to me, but I believe you have to be on optional assignment for 20 or more days for an option year to be burned. So if 10 days was the extent of Brother's optional assignment time for the full year, we would not have burned an option this year.
 
dak said:
The optional assignment rules are still a bit confusing to me, but I believe you have to be on optional assignment for 20 or more days for an option year to be burned. So if 10 days was the extent of Brother's optional assignment time for the full year, we would not have burned an option this year.
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oooh...you might be right
 
Found this Spring 2017 article from the venerable @BravesOptions before he dropped off of Twitter. Building off of what he has here, it seems the following are out of options: Jose Ramirez, Ian Krol, Jace Peterson, Adonis Garcia, Micah Johnson, Mauricio Cabrera, and Luke Jackson. Of note, Akeel Morris appears to have one option year left. I'm not super high on Jose Ramirez, but I think he'll be kept. I expect Krol to be non-tendered. Probably not a black and white situation with the others, but there's no one there I'm dying to keep.

https://www.talkingchop.com/2017/3/29/15104000/options-in-laymans-terms
 
dak said:
Found this Spring 2017 article from the venerable @BravesOptions before he dropped off of Twitter. Building off of what he has here, it seems the following are out of options: Jose Ramirez, Ian Krol, Jace Peterson, Adonis Garcia, Micah Johnson, Mauricio Cabrera, and Luke Jackson. Of note, Akeel Morris appears to have one option year left. I'm not super high on Jose Ramirez, but I think he'll be kept. I expect Krol to be non-tendered. Probably not a black and white situation with the others, but there's no one there I'm dying to keep.

https://www.talkingchop.com/2017/3/29/15104000/options-in-laymans-terms
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They should keep Ramirez, Krol and Jackson. I think you keep Krol because he's had some success, is a lefty and is cheap. I think you keep him through ST of 2018 at least to see if he rebounds. Jackson is the RH version of that.

The rest can go.
 
I see that Akeel Morris was optioned in 2015 (June 18 by the Mets), 2016 (March 11 by the Mets, August 13 by the Braves) and 2017 (March 16 and August 1 by the Braves), in each case for more than 20 days.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
They should keep Ramirez, Krol and Jackson. I think you keep Krol because he's had some success, is a lefty and is cheap. I think you keep him through ST of 2018 at least to see if he rebounds. Jackson is the RH version of that.

The rest can go.
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Krol career xFIP against lefties 3.76. In 2017 4.40.

Jackson career xFIP against righties 5.11. In 2017 4.73.

There is a marginal case (based on his career numbers) to be made for Krol as a LOOGY. None whatsoever for Jackson as a ROOGY.

Jose Ramirez btw is at 5.26 career xFIP against righties. In 2017 he was at 4.83. Similar to Jackson. Throws harder so maybe keep him in hopes he harnesses the stuff better.
 
nsacpi said:
I see that Akeel Morris was optioned in 2015 (June 18 by the Mets), 2016 (March 11 by the Mets, August 13 by the Braves) and 2017 (March 16 and August 1 by the Braves), in each case for more than 20 days.
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Yep, I see it the same way. I believe he is eligible for a 4th minor league option since he doesn't have 5 full seasons (90 days active in a given year) of professional baseball.
 
dak said:
Found this Spring 2017 article from the venerable @BravesOptions before he dropped off of Twitter. Building off of what he has here, it seems the following are out of options: Jose Ramirez, Ian Krol, Jace Peterson, Adonis Garcia, Micah Johnson, Mauricio Cabrera, and Luke Jackson. Of note, Akeel Morris appears to have one option year left. I'm not super high on Jose Ramirez, but I think he'll be kept. I expect Krol to be non-tendered. Probably not a black and white situation with the others, but there's no one there I'm dying to keep.

https://www.talkingchop.com/2017/3/29/15104000/options-in-laymans-terms
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For completeness, of the players the Braves added to the 40-man after this article, I believe Sam Freeman, Lane Adams, and Tony Sanchez are all out of options.
 
nsacpi said:
Krol career xFIP against lefties 3.76. In 2017 4.40.

Jackson career xFIP against righties 5.11. In 2017 4.73.

There is a marginal case (based on his career numbers) to be made for Krol as a LOOGY. None whatsoever for Jackson as a ROOGY.

Jose Ramirez btw is at 5.26 career xFIP against righties. In 2017 he was at 4.83. Similar to Jackson. Throws harder so maybe keep him in hopes he harnesses the stuff better.
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But short careers all.

I would feel differently if the sample size were bigger OR the team was sure fire contender in 2018
 
The bigger question with Brothers is whether you want him back at all. I was an advocate for signing him, but that is one butt-ugly ERA.

On the one hand, the FIP is actually pretty respectable, and the K rate is nice and shiny. On the other hand, when you see such a drastic difference between ERA and FIP, it doesn't always mean the pitcher is really unlucky - sometime it just means that hitters are teeing off on a guy.
 
nsacpi said:
they're not young and compare poorly to Minty, Freeman and Winkler.
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They aren't exactly old either. They are mid 20's. And none will cost much more than league minimum. I would keep them on the 40 man to see if they can be developed at least through ST 2018. For where the Braves are no need to throw them out just because you think you may have better options.
 
I had been thinking Lindgren and Morris were out of options. That's great if they are not and could be the reasoning behind keeping Morris down. However it plays out the goal should be to have a shut down pen in Atlanta as well as Gwinnett. I'd like 5-6 good arms in AAA waiting for an injury or an excuse to trade a reliever from the major league team.
 
I'm definitely not gonna lump Morris into the "let them go" camp. Someone with a changeup as good as his, I believe, has a really good shot at being a solid major leaguer. His changeup reminds me of Fernando Rodney's even though he doesn't have Rodney's velocity. I really like Akeel
 
Here are xwOBA values for all Braves pitchers who faced 20+ batters. Anyone with a .320 value or less is an above average MLB pitcher (or has shown glimpses of being one) and deserves a spot in the 2018 BP.

Rk. Player Results xwOBA

1 A.J. Minter 13.357 for 60 0.223

2 Dan Winkler 13.344 for 53 0.252

3 Akeel Morris 8.801 for 32 0.275

4 Sam Freeman 70.409 for 254 0.277

5 Luiz Gohara 34.966 for 123 0.284

6 Arodys Vizcaino 68.436 for 235 0.291

7 Jaime Garcia 143.714 for 474 0.303

8 Rex Brothers 32.075 for 105 0.305

9 Jose Ramirez 80.893 for 258 0.314

10 Jim Johnson 80.314 for 256 0.314

11 R.A. Dickey 257.727 for 815 0.316

12 Julio Teheran 259.664 for 812 0.320

13 Sean Newcomb 149.054 for 456 0.327

14 Mike Foltynewicz 226.362 for 692 0.327

15 Lucas Sims 83.585 for 255 0.328

16 Ian Krol 71.286 for 214 0.333

17 Jason Hursh 15.655 for 47 0.333

18 Jason Motte 55.531 for 166 0.335

19 Eric O'Flaherty 28.914 for 83 0.348

20 Max Fried 42.584 for 121 0.352

21 Josh Collmenter 30.665 for 87 0.352

22 Bartolo Colon 105.716 for 299 0.354

23 Luke Jackson 79.460 for 224 0.355

24 Matt Wisler 56.724 for 153 0.371

These values tell me Sims needs more of a shot despite the appearance of sub-par stuff. I could see the Rays valuing him and MAdams as about half the value required to acquire Odorizzi with the other half being a FV 45/50 pitching prospect.
 
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good to see the data provide some support for the positive impression I had of Sims...i have no trouble with him going back to AAA but I think he has a shot to be a useful major league starting pitcher
 
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nsacpi said:
good to see the data provide some support for the positive impression I had of Sims...i have no trouble with him going back to AAA but I think he has a shot to be a useful major league starting pitcher
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Dickey, Teheran, Folty, Newk and Sims all clustered around the .315-.325 range, which is a #4 SP. I expect improvement from Teheran next year in the form of better command.

Gohara is singlehandedly bouying the pitching heavy rebuild as he is already at least a 2-pitch #3+...a LHed Archer. Hopefully he marches towards the top of the rotation as his change and stamina improve. If his stamina remains an issue he can be an elite 3 win BP arm.
 
According to the Braves transaction page, Ian Krol was outrighted to Gwinnett today. I believe he has the option to accept the assignment or elect free agency, with the latter being most likely.

It's looks like it takes 72 hours to pass through outright assignment waivers, so this is a move the Braves made Monday. Wonder if we'll see others show up as outrighted in the coming days.
 
dak said:
According to the Braves transaction page, Ian Krol was outrighted to Gwinnett today. I believe he has the option to accept the assignment or elect free agency, with the latter being most likely.

It's looks like it takes 72 hours to pass through outright assignment waivers, so this is a move the Braves made Monday. Wonder if we'll see others show up as outrighted in the coming days.
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I'm over Kroll...Hope he elects free agency. We should have flipped him this past offseason when he had value.
 
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