Craig Kimbrel For Braves Closer In 2019

nsacpi said:
Rosario is a good option. Other young outfielders to consider trading for include Happ, Kepler, Joc Pederson. David Peralta is a little older but would have two years to go before free agency.

There are options out there. But whether they are superior to Markakis depends on price. The price for someone like Rosario might be along the lines of Soroka or Folty. Probably Soroka plus given the uncertainties about his shoulder. If you look at Rosario's WAR numbers they are similar to Folty's. So a trade of those two would be close to fair. Both would have 3 years of contractual control left.

We shouldn't fool ourselves that there are better cheaper options out there. There are good options out there that will not be cheap. There are some cheap options like Mike Joyce. But he is a replacement level player, who really is not a full-time player.
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This was pretty much the point on Markakis. There's going to be a lot of sentiment from the players, Snitker, and the Coaches for bringing him back. I haven't seen the first person mention offering him a 3 or 4 year Gordon-like deal. If he'd take a 1 year "swan song" deal (maybe even with a team option) they could do worse, especially if the available upgrades are going to require 4 year deals. As mentioned above, if AA's convinced that Riley is ultimately going to be "the answer" at 3B you'd have the option to turn Johan into an OF (pretty intriguing, actually - even though I'd hate to have his defense wasting away out there).

Given how well Laureano and Canha have performed and the lack of healthy young arms in their system (especially with Manaea and Puk already down for next season), I wonder if there could be some interest in trading for Dustin Fowler. He's struggled pretty mightily against lefties in his first extended taste at this level, but he's still just 23, another Georgia kid, and lit it up while back in Nashville while handling LHPs just fine.
 
nsacpi said:
Rosario is a good option. Other young outfielders to consider trading for include Happ, Kepler, Joc Pederson. David Peralta is a little older but would have two years to go before free agency.

There are options out there. But whether they are superior to Markakis depends on price. The price for someone like Rosario might be along the lines of Soroka or Folty. Probably Soroka plus given the uncertainties about his shoulder. If you look at Rosario's WAR numbers they are similar to Folty's. So a trade of those two would be close to fair. Both would have 3 years of contractual control left.

We shouldn't fool ourselves that there are better cheaper options out there. There are good options out there that will not be cheap. There are some cheap options like Mike Joyce. But he is a replacement level player, who really is not a full-time player.
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Mike Joyce is dead I think.

Matt Joyce OTOH will be 34 in 2019. His age 30-33 WAR was -1.0, 1.7, 1.7,-0.1

Nick Markakis 30-33 WAR was 1.8, 1.7, 1.7, 0.7

Joyce has had injury, especially in his down seasons limiting his AB and some can be laid at poor play. He's also moved around a lot. He made $16.75M during that time for 2.3 WAR. That's $7.28M per WAR.

Markakis played full time on a rebuilding team where there were no real other options to take playing time from him. He made $50M during that time for 5.9 WAR. That's $8.48M per WAR.

The outlier to the conversation is Markakis' 34 YO season, this season where he is currently at $11M for 2.9 WAR. Of course Joyce is a year younger and hasn't played his 35 YO season...yet.

There are all kinds of ways to look at it. You could say that the fact that Markakis plays every day has value and that's true. It means that the Braves can pencil in a fairly mediocre RF in RF pretty much every day.

Is Joyce done? No possibility of a 2.9 WAR season next year? He probably won't have a 2.9 season next year since he hasn't had better than a 2.1 since he was 26.

However, Markakis didn't have better than a 1.8 since he was 27.

Overall, for their career, is Markakis the better player. Of course. Money aside, is Markakis the better player now and going forward? Probably.

But, if you get 1.5 WAR out of Joyce next season for a one-off $4M contract that would be MUCH better than getting 2 WAR (more than any season since he was 27, and this year) out of Markakis for a 3 year, $36M deal. There's a bust factor with both, at least partly age related. But, busting on Markakis would be much more harmful than busting on Joyce.

You can't let an outlier season for Markakis influence your decision making about him. Is he the player you see this year? Or the player he was the previous 6 years?
 
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Neck is back to playing like many of thought he would do all season. Which is what he's done the past few seasons. He's a good story this year but we can and should do better in 2019. He's a 95-100 WRC+ and 1-2 WAR player. Having a 3 month hot stretch shouldn't change anyone's perspective on him.
 
thewupk said:
Neck is back to playing like many of thought he would do all season. Which is what he's done the past few seasons. He's a good story this year but we can and should do better in 2019. He's a 95-100 WRC+ and 1-2 WAR player. Having a 3 month hot stretch shouldn't change anyone's perspective on him.
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Yes. Please don’t get Chris johnson’d Again.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Mike Joyce is dead I think.

Matt Joyce OTOH will be 34 in 2019. His age 30-33 WAR was -1.0, 1.7, 1.7,-0.1

Nick Markakis 30-33 WAR was 1.8, 1.7, 1.7, 0.7

Joyce has had injury, especially in his down seasons limiting his AB and some can be laid at poor play. He's also moved around a lot. He made $16.75M during that time for 2.3 WAR. That's $7.28M per WAR.

Markakis played full time on a rebuilding team where there were no real other options to take playing time from him. He made $50M during that time for 5.9 WAR. That's $8.48M per WAR.

The outlier to the conversation is Markakis' 34 YO season, this season where he is currently at $11M for 2.9 WAR. Of course Joyce is a year younger and hasn't played his 35 YO season...yet.

There are all kinds of ways to look at it. You could say that the fact that Markakis plays every day has value and that's true. It means that the Braves can pencil in a fairly mediocre RF in RF pretty much every day.

Is Joyce done? No possibility of a 2.9 WAR season next year? He probably won't have a 2.9 season next year since he hasn't had better than a 2.1 since he was 26.

However, Markakis didn't have better than a 1.8 since he was 27.

Overall, for their career, is Markakis the better player. Of course. Money aside, is Markakis the better player now and going forward? Probably.

But, if you get 1.5 WAR out of Joyce next season for a one-off $4M contract that would be MUCH better than getting 2 WAR (more than any season since he was 27, and this year) out of Markakis for a 3 year, $36M deal. There's a bust factor with both, at least partly age related. But, busting on Markakis would be much more harmful than busting on Joyce.

You can't let an outlier season for Markakis influence your decision making about him. Is he the player you see this year? Or the player he was the previous 6 years?
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The logic is fine as it goes. But you can't 100% discount what Muk has done in 2018. It happened. And it was not all BABIP luck. You don't let it overly influence you, but you can't completely discount it.

My projections for the two would be for 2019 Muk 2 WAR and Joyce 1 WAR. Muk will probably cost more than twice as much in terms of salary. So I can see an argument that Joyce might be better value. But we are in the market for a starting corner outfielder. One fits the bill, the other doesn't.
 
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nsacpi said:
The logic is fine as it goes. But you can't 100% discount what Muk has done in 2018. It happened. And it was not all BABIP luck. You don't let it overly influence you, but you can't completely discount it.

My projections for the two would be for 2019 Muk 2 WAR and Joyce 1 WAR. Muk will probably cost more than twice as much in terms of salary. So I can see an argument that Joyce might be better value. But we are in the market for a starting corner outfielder. One fits the bill, the other doesn't.
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In most years, Markakis isn't a starting RF on a good team.
 
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clvclv said:
Which is the reason I could see a Kimbrel (or other Closer) signing and a Grandal or Moose/Donaldson addition to go along with bringing back Markakis (again, only if the terms are right) or another corner OF on a short-term deal.

With ~ $50 million committed, adding $40-45 million worth of veterans that aren't going to be "front-line" free-agents (other than Kimbrel obviously) would still leave AA room for arbitration raises while addressing what holes may exist. Spending that kind of money on a closer would likely mean he would only be able to choose 2 of the 3 holes, but if you're convinced that Camargo/Riley will be good enough to assume 3B isn't really a need (and I am) then dropping that money on Grandal and Brantley/Jones/McCutchen makes sense - you'd upgrade 3 positions while avoiding long-term commitments, and do so without blocking anybody. You can dump Julio after next season to pay a big chunk of one of those salaries if need be, and Viz and Freeman will be gone as well so you'd really only be adding one salary in that range for the 2020 season.
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Lol we are not getting Kimbrel or spending anywhere near that money on a bullpen piece. And thank the lord... that would be so dumb.
 
nsacpi said:
And Joyce is? And Nelson Cruz (who has played a grand total of 8 games in the field the last two years) for that matter?
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Come on man. How about some context?

I knew this would degenerate into this when you posted "And who would that be?" When I said there were many better options than bringing Markakis back. It's how this thing is done.

Step 1

Ask for someone to back up a statement by offering up an example, all while not exposing yourself to return criticism.

Step 2

Find the weak points in a list and focus on those as if they were the only and primary options.

Step 3

Shift the point away from what it was originally (Markakis shouldn't be re-signed to play RF) to the deficiencies of the chosen weak points, all without providing anything that would expose oneself to return criticism

Step 4

Did heels in and replay the same argument over and over

Newsflash: most things aren't straight black and white. There are benefits to be seen from both viewpoints in most cases.

I've never said that Joyce would be a better player. I've said that he would probably be a better choice than Markakis because he would cost less in terms of money and years and any bust potential he has would be limited because of contract length as compared to Markakis. Cruz may have not played the field much for good reason. Would he be Kemp out there? IDK. Or he may be able to play the field but Seattle has chosen him as a DH to keep him healthy and his bat in the line up.

I would prefer getting a better long term solution for RF. But I don't want to settle for Markakis unless he a. comes on a one year deal at about $8M and b. there are no better choices available.

If it comes down to Markakis 3/36 or Joyce 1/4 then sign me up for Joyce all day long.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Come on man. How about some context?

I knew this would degenerate into this when you posted "And who would that be?" When I said there were many better options than bringing Markakis back. It's how this thing is done.

Step 1

Ask for someone to back up a statement by offering up an example, all while not exposing yourself to return criticism.

Step 2

Find the weak points in a list and focus on those as if they were the only and primary options.

Step 3

Shift the point away from what it was originally (Markakis shouldn't be re-signed to play RF) to the deficiencies of the chosen weak points, all without providing anything that would expose oneself to return criticism

Step 4

Did heels in and replay the same argument over and over

Newsflash: most things aren't straight black and white. There are benefits to be seen from both viewpoints in most cases.

I've never said that Joyce would be a better player. I've said that he would probably be a better choice than Markakis because he would cost less in terms of money and years and any bust potential he has would be limited because of contract length as compared to Markakis. Cruz may have not played the field much for good reason. Would he be Kemp out there? IDK. Or he may be able to play the field but Seattle has chosen him as a DH to keep him healthy and his bat in the line up.

I would prefer getting a better long term solution for RF. But I don't want to settle for Markakis unless he a. comes on a one year deal at about $8M and b. there are no better choices available.

If it comes down to Markakis 3/36 or Joyce 1/4 then sign me up for Joyce all day long.
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ok...i really don't want to play gotcha...so lets move past Joyce and Nelson Cruz

its just i'm skeptical there are cheaper (assuming trade chips are factored into the price) and better options than Markakis...there are better players who are alternatives...but they ain't gonna be cheaper

if you have some examples of cheaper and better i'd be interested in seeing that list
 
Harry, your argument likely fails on the premise that Markakis is going to get anything close to 15 million a year or a four year deal.

I think the most likely way he stays in Atlanta is either a qualifying offer or on a 1 and 1.

Anyone the Braves could go get at a lower price point on the open market is likely to be equally flawed.

If you want to say they should trade for someone, that's certainly an option where they might get a better player at a reasonable price point, but it will cost prospects.
 
Will Markakis get more than a one year deal? I guess we won't know that until it either does or doesn't happen. However, coming off the best year he has had in ten years, I think it would be reasonable that he will want a multi-year deal at market money. I think he will want 4/50 as an opening but settle for 3/36.

If a QO is worth $18M and the Braves offer that, I could see him having to take it because the pick would likely kill his market AND it would likely be about 33% above what he could realistically expect as an AAV. But, a QO means the Braves have decided to a. settle in RF and b. overpay for performance in RF. I will say the QO offer makes more sense for the Braves than bringing him back at 3/36.

From my standpoint, playing Camargo in LF, Inciarte in CF and Acuna in RF with Riley at 3B is likely a better scenario from a performance standpoint than a scenario with Markakis in RF and Camargo at 3B next year. There's a chance that Riley wouldn't be ready or that Camargo would be horrible in LF. But I think there's a better chance of Markakis reverting to close to replacement level.

Don't get me wrong. I think the Braves should spend some of their money and/or prospect capital to fix RF and fixing RF doesn't include playing Camargo in LF, Joyce or Cruz in RF and certainly not Markakis in RF.

In FA, that would probably mean signing AJ Pollock and playing him in either LF or RF depending on the best mix between he and Acuna. But, that almost certainly will come with a QO from AZ.

I think the more likely thing is to address through trade and it probably will be an expensive trade since the Braves are unlikely to want an unproven option because of their window. So taking a chance on a guy like Frazier from the Yanks is probably out. But David Dahl might be an option.

Ultimately if the Braves don't offer a QO, then I see Markakis at 3/36 in Baltimore doing for them during their rebuild what he did for the Braves. If the Braves do offer a QO, he'll have no choice but to take it.
 
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nsacpi said:
The logic is fine as it goes. But you can't 100% discount what Muk has done in 2018. It happened. And it was not all BABIP luck. You don't let it overly influence you, but you can't completely discount it.

My projections for the two would be for 2019 Muk 2 WAR and Joyce 1 WAR. Muk will probably cost more than twice as much in terms of salary. So I can see an argument that Joyce might be better value. But we are in the market for a starting corner outfielder. One fits the bill, the other doesn't.
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To borrow and paraphrase someone else's quote...

If Matt Joyce is the Braves' starting RF in 2019, AA will have failed - and horribly.

Pretty sure we all understand that you don't stop searching for value wherever you can find it. but come on. With the financial flexibility AA has, Joyce shouldn't even enter the conversation. It's perfectly fine to caution against arbitrarily handing out bad contracts just because you have money to spend, but any signing (or trade made) this winter should occur with only one goal - improving the team's chances to win in the short-term.

Your earlier question to Harry provides all anyone needs to know about Joyce. If Markakis "isn't a starting RF on a good team" and Joyce already isn't a starting RF on his current good team (who would be a minimal upgrade over Markakis at best), why on earth would you spend money there - much less big money???

As everyone's pointed out, the flexibility exists to do something this winter that will make this team a legitimate contender for the next 4-5 years. As long as he doesn't spend crazily - 3-4 years for Markakis as a "reward" for this unexpected big year, 4-5 years for older or injury-prone guys like Pollock, Brantley, Jones, or McCutchen, a big deal for a bad defensive Catcher like Ramos - he should absolutely be looking for more upside than Joyce can provide. Brantley (2.7 WAR, 122 OPS+) and McCutchen (2.1 WAR, 111 OPS+) are much better players that are two years younger than Joyce, and much of Jones' "dropoff" can likely be attributed to being on one of the worst teams we've seen recently - his OBP and SLG have declined slightly, but he's still put up a 105 OPS+ season (right at his career norm) and there's little doubt he brings many of those intangibles everyone wants to discount.

It sucks that there's no way to measure some of the things guys like Markakis and others provide, but that doesn't mean they should be discounted altogether. How much of a difference has Sanchez made that doesn't show up when it's time to count the numbers? As long as you don't hand a long deal to them, it's unbelievably hard to imagine how Joyce could possibly make this team better than Brantley, CarGo, McCutchen, or Jones could - especially if you're looking for someone that can be "a starting RF/LF on a good team".
 
I like Markakis but with us entering into our contention window we need to shoot higher in RF. We can afford a really good outfielder and we have the prospects it’ll take to get him.
 
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