Dansby Swanson Already Proving He Belongs

yeezus said:
So your plan was open to next season with Daniel Castro as your SS?

And who's to say how much Dansby has been benefited or will be by being called up when he was? You can't quantify it, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
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this is what i would have done...start both albies and swanson in AAA...call one up after a couple weeks...call the other up in June or whatever relevant super 2 date applies
 
nsacpi said:
The difference between the two is a good first approximation for the cost of this decision. You could argue for a bigger or smaller number, but you would end up in this ballpark. About $2M per year. I know our payroll is going up. But I don't think we should be pissing away 2M per year for no discernible benefit. Keep in mind John Hart said Swanson was probably not ready. And in his interview JC makes it clear that the idea of calling up Swanson did not cross his mind until his two mentors nudged him into it.
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I don't think scenario 2 was likely at all for Swanson. They weren't going to keep him down until he wasn't a super 2. So really it comes down to this.

36 million through 2023:
22 million through 2022:

Again for ensheff to be correct about paying him 10-15 million more in 2023 the Braves would need to pay him 24-29 million for that season. If/when they extend Swanson I highly doubt his 2023 season will cost tha tmuch.
 
thewupk said:
I don't think scenario 2 was likely at all for Swanson. They weren't going to keep him down until he wasn't a super 2.
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i sense some revisionist history at work...his play in AA was mildly disappointing...Hart said he was probably not ready...and the thought of a promotion was not on JC's radar
 
nsacpi said:
i sense some revisionist history at work...his play in AA was mildly disappointing...Hart said he was probably not ready...and the thought of a promotion was not on JC's radar
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Maybe it is. But with Swanson being a college #1 draft pick he was going to be accelerated quickly. If he's performing well I don't see a reason to keep him down. He wasn't going gangbusters at AA but I wouldn't call it disappointing. His game is not about mind blowing offensive numbers. He is just going to be above average or better at all facets of the game.
 
nsacpi said:
this is what i would have done...start both albies and swanson in AAA...call one up after a couple weeks...call the other up in June or whatever relevant super 2 date applies
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1). I don't think the organization wanted to open a new ballpark with Daniel Castro at SS.

2). It's impossible to say Dansby won't see a longterm benefit to being called up right now. You can call it a cop-out, but teams do consider these things to some extent.
 
yeezus said:
1). I don't think the organization wanted to open a new ballpark with Daniel Castro at SS.

2). It's impossible to say Dansby won't see a longterm benefit to being called up right now. You can call it a cop-out, but teams do consider these things to some extent.
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i think the case for superior benefits from seasoning in the majors is far from persuasive...i could cite counter examples...freddie freeman was one of the few top braves hitting prospects to spend almost a full season in AAA...i believe it was a very good finishing school for him...ditto for chipper
 
thewupk said:
I would counter it with this.

Keep him down a few weeks to gain an extra year

2017: 500K
2018: 500K
2019: 500K
2020: 3.5
2021: 7
2022: 10
2023: 14

Keep him down half the year so he's not a super 2

2017: whatever is prorated of 500K
2018: 500K
2019: 500K
2020: 500K
2021: 3.5
2022: 7
2023: 10

I feel those are fair arby projections based on a ~3 WAR player. Doing the later you are still going to pay someone likely in the 8 million range to be a stopgap SS for 2017 and I doubt even you would want to keep Swanson down half the year. So if the Braves do extend Swanson I don't think they will be paying him 24-29 million for his 2023 season. So your 10-15 million extra for it is just wrong. At most I feel they cost themselves 4-5 million or so for that 2023 season.
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This is an excellent breakdown of my point. And I agree, there was zero chance they would have kept Swanson down to avoid Super 2 status.

How is 10-15 million more for the 2023 season wrong? In what world is a 3-4 WAR SS at the age of 29 not going to make $25M in the year 2023? Take a look at Freeman's contract extension that was signed a decade before the year in question here (2023). He is being paid $12M this year, which would be the last arb year had he not extended. Next year, the first FA year they bought, sees his salary jump by $8.5M.

Factoring in another 6 years of salary inflation and I think it's a lock the difference between Swanson's last arb year salary and first FA year salary will easily result in an additional cost of $10M+ for the Braves.

And nsacpi is right, these decisions are being influenced by guys that won't be around in 2024, just like JS gutted the farm for Tex in his last year as GM. Coppy himself said he didn't want to promote Swanson, but Hart and JS are going to be dead in 5 years, so they want to get Swanson up here now because they don't give a **** about the 2023 Braves.
 
I don't think this is a big issue namely because 1) Swanson will likely be a franchise cornerstone (and hence extended); and 2) the Braves TV deal expires in 2027 - yes 4 years after 2023, but you can only imagine what kind of revenue boost a new TV deal will produce in a decade. A single player's premium salary is hardly going to move the needle meaningfully.
 
Enscheff said:
This is an excellent breakdown of my point. And I agree, there was zero chance they would have kept Swanson down to avoid Super 2 status.

How is 10-15 million more for the 2023 season wrong? Take a look at Freeman's contract extension. He is being paid $12M this year, which would be the last arb year had he not extended. Next year, the first FA year they bought, sees his salary jump by $8.5M.
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If Freeman went to arby this year he would be making way more than 12 million though. It would be somewhere in the mid-high teens. But you rarely see players like Freddie go to arby year to year. And he also wouldn't have been a 4 year arby player which can increase the arby salaries a little. I know salaries can inflate quickly in baseball but I don't see a 3 WAR SS (assuming thats the player Swanson becomes) making 25+ in 6 years. If the salaries did explode to those numbers you would see his arby numbers rise with to still make the gap small.

I'm not saying there isn't a cost reduction by holding him back 3 weeks. There is. I just don't see it as being in the 10-15 million range.
 
Also looking at Freemans contract. He makes 12 million this year and next year he makes 17 million. So hardly a 8.5 million jump.
 
Julio3000 said:
I think there's a pretty compelling reason to feel better with the superior hitter batting in that situation, right?
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Kinda like bringing up the point that far older players like Glavine and Smoltz left for more money much later in their careers when it was clear they didn't have much left in the tank, no?
 
ramadon101 said:
the Braves TV deal expires in 2027 - yes 4 years after 2023, but you can only imagine what kind of revenue boost a new TV deal will produce in a decade.
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This is going to be very interesting. I have my doubts that we will be selling those broadcasting rights to a cable company. I could see the Braves being one of the first teams who will have the opportunity to sell its broadcasting rights to digital platforms, i.e. Facebook or Twitter. By 2027, I'm sure the vast majority of people will have cut the chord.
 
Cot's has him going from 12M this year to 20.5M in 2017.

Freddie Freeman 1b
8 years/$135M (2014-21)

8 years/$135M (2014-21)
signed extension with Atlanta 2/5/14 (avoided arbitration, $5.75M-$4.5M)
$2.875M signing bonus
14:$5.125M, 15:$8.5M, 16:$12M, 17:$20.5M, 18:$21M, 19:$21M, 20:$22M, 21:$22M
 
What I don't understand is the assumption that Swanson is going to be a cornerstone player or that he is going to be as valuable as someone like Freddie Freeman. It doesn't look to me like he projects to be a star. Right now I think you have a success if he ranks in the top half of shortstops. If he's better that's swell.
 
Southcack77 said:
What I don't understand is the assumption that Swanson is going to be a cornerstone player or that he is going to be as valuable as someone like Freddie Freeman. It doesn't look to me like he projects to be a star. Right now I think you have a success if he ranks in the top half of shortstops. If he's better that's swell.
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I see him being really good defensively (top 8 ish) and a high average, ~15 homer and very good OBP, like .360-.390.
 
nsacpi said:
i sense some revisionist history at work...his play in AA was mildly disappointing...Hart said he was probably not ready...and the thought of a promotion was not on JC's radar
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I find the arguing based on Swanson SSS that he's ready interesting after many in past noted that Simmons wasn't ready with the bat his rookie year despite hitting .289 with a .751 OPS. Like Simmons, I'd argue that Swanson is more ready defensively than with the bat but I am glad he had a good start here rather than a bad one. Simmons of course was amazing defender even in the minors, so he was more than ready on that side of the game.
 
Southcack77 said:
What I don't understand is the assumption that Swanson is going to be a cornerstone player or that he is going to be as valuable as someone like Freddie Freeman. It doesn't look to me like he projects to be a star. Right now I think you have a success if he ranks in the top half of shortstops. If he's better that's swell.
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The bar is much lower at SS and he plays plus defense. If he can put up a good OBP with moderate power and plus defense he will be a star.

Braves1976 said:
I find the arguing based on Swanson SSS that he's ready interesting after many in past noted that Simmons wasn't ready with the bat his rookie year despite hitting .289 with a .751 OPS. Like Simmons, I'd argue that Swanson is more ready defensively than with the bat but I am glad he had a good start here rather than a bad one. Simmons of course was amazing defender even in the minors, so he was more than ready on that side of the game.
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To your point there, a lot of people think development is linear. Often the best seasons we get from a player are their first few years. Furcal, Francoeur,McCann, Charles Thomas, etc. Any of our prospects could have a fluke season next year.
 
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