nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
So far he has put up an OPS of .446 in 46 PAs in 2017
In 145 major league plate appearances in 2016, he put up an OPS of .803.
In 377 plate appearances at the AA level in 2016, he put up an OPS of .744.
I would like to put forth the proposition that his "true underlying" level right now is best estimated by taking his performance over the larger sample size from AA and making two adjustments. One to convert to major league level from AA and one to reflect the normal maturation that takes place for a player of his age and experience over the course of a year. Those adjustments suggest to me that he is likely to put up an OPS in the .650-.700 range the rest of this season if he continues playing at the major league level.
By 2018, I expect his true underlying level to move to the .700-.750 range.
In 145 major league plate appearances in 2016, he put up an OPS of .803.
In 377 plate appearances at the AA level in 2016, he put up an OPS of .744.
I would like to put forth the proposition that his "true underlying" level right now is best estimated by taking his performance over the larger sample size from AA and making two adjustments. One to convert to major league level from AA and one to reflect the normal maturation that takes place for a player of his age and experience over the course of a year. Those adjustments suggest to me that he is likely to put up an OPS in the .650-.700 range the rest of this season if he continues playing at the major league level.
By 2018, I expect his true underlying level to move to the .700-.750 range.