Dansby Swanson and Sample Sizes

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
So far he has put up an OPS of .446 in 46 PAs in 2017

In 145 major league plate appearances in 2016, he put up an OPS of .803.

In 377 plate appearances at the AA level in 2016, he put up an OPS of .744.

I would like to put forth the proposition that his "true underlying" level right now is best estimated by taking his performance over the larger sample size from AA and making two adjustments. One to convert to major league level from AA and one to reflect the normal maturation that takes place for a player of his age and experience over the course of a year. Those adjustments suggest to me that he is likely to put up an OPS in the .650-.700 range the rest of this season if he continues playing at the major league level.

By 2018, I expect his true underlying level to move to the .700-.750 range.
 
I'll take the over. What's the bet?

So I win if he is he below .700 ops the rest of this year?

If I win you have to change your picture to the logo of the SEC team you hate the most and keep it there for a one year period.
 
So I win if he is he below .700 ops the rest of this year?

If I win you have to change your picture to the logo of the SEC team you hate the most and keep it there for a one year period.

And if it's over .700, you can't complain about the FO's decision to bring him up for a year. How many ABs does he have to have?
 
And if it's over .700, you can't complain about the FO's decision to bring him up for a year. How many ABs does he have to have?

Lets say at least 100 more major league ABs the rest of the season. If for whatever reason he has less than 100 the bet is off.
 
The point, at least my point, since last season is that they rushed him to the ML, when they didn't have to (in the midst of a lost season with no hope of any contention) which had very little upside to the move - essentially hoping that a taste of ML play and a strong finish to 2016 would somehow springboard him into 2017, possibly as a ROY candidate, with a much larger ledger of potential downside - lose control of the player a year earlier than necessary; potentially hurt development in the short and maybe even long term; improve the 2016 record if he plays well (which is what happened) costing yourself draft, rule 5 and waiver position as well as draft and pool money; create a sense of entitlement in the player even if it is sub-conscience entitlement where learning to play the game is no longer the focus but learning to stay at the ML is the focus; limit your 40 man maneuverability by one slot throughout the 2016-2017 offseason.

Swanson may be fine. In fact, he probably will be. But that doesn't change the fundamental fact that it was a short sighted move that was designed to prop up a sagging fan base more than what was in the best long term interests of the player AND the team.

He should be at AAA right now growing with Albies, learning his craft, building confidence and launching into the ML sometime in later 2017, assuming he continues to show he's ready for the chance.
 
The point, at least my point, since last season is that they rushed him to the ML, when they didn't have to (in the midst of a lost season with no hope of any contention) which had very little upside to the move - essentially hoping that a taste of ML play and a strong finish to 2016 would somehow springboard him into 2017, possibly as a ROY candidate, with a much larger ledger of potential downside - lose control of the player a year earlier than necessary; potentially hurt development in the short and maybe even long term; improve the 2016 record if he plays well (which is what happened) costing yourself draft, rule 5 and waiver position as well as draft and pool money; create a sense of entitlement in the player even if it is sub-conscience entitlement where learning to play the game is no longer the focus but learning to stay at the ML is the focus; limit your 40 man maneuverability by one slot throughout the 2016-2017 offseason.

Swanson may be fine. In fact, he probably will be. But that doesn't change the fundamental fact that it was a short sighted move that was designed to prop up a sagging fan base more than what was in the best long term interests of the player AND the team.

He should be at AAA right now growing with Albies, learning his craft, building confidence and launching into the ML sometime in later 2017, assuming he continues to show he's ready for the chance.

Hard to argue with. The claims advanced by some about building enthusiasm within the fan base always seemed like very weak beer in comparison.
 
So far he has put up an OPS of .446 in 46 PAs in 2017

In 145 major league plate appearances in 2016, he put up an OPS of .803.

In 377 plate appearances at the AA level in 2016, he put up an OPS of .744.

I would like to put forth the proposition that his "true underlying" level right now is best estimated by taking his performance over the larger sample size from AA and making two adjustments. One to convert to major league level from AA and one to reflect the normal maturation that takes place for a player of his age and experience over the course of a year. Those adjustments suggest to me that he is likely to put up an OPS in the .650-.700 range the rest of this season if he continues playing at the major league level.

By 2018, I expect his true underlying level to move to the .700-.750 range.

You also need to adjust his AA stats for the fact that he played in one of the worst hitters' parks in MiLB.
 
You also need to adjust his AA stats for the fact that he played in one of the worst hitters' parks in MiLB.

Sounds like you want in on the bet.

The BABIP will normalize. The problem for Dansby is the 20%+ strikeout rate (which is not too surprising considering he was at 19% in AA) that he has had both last year and this year in the majors. He will probably not get that down to an acceptable level until sometime next year. That's one of the reasons a year of seasoning in AAA would have been a good idea for him.

Btw Albies was at 15% on the strikeout rate last year in AA. Which is more along the lines of what you want to see from a prospect. A 20%+ number is ok for a power hitter, but not for guys like Swanson and Albies.
 
Just based on what I have seen with my eyes, the most important thing to many around these parts, Swanson has been a bit overmatched in the 2 hole. Last year when he was batting in front of the pitcher, he was able to take advantage of pitchers being willing to walk him. Now that they are attacking him agreesisively to keep him off the bases in front of Freeman, he is getting exposed a bit.

He might end up being an average player, but I would be surprised if he doesn't post a .700 OPS from here on out though.
 
Just based on what I have seen with my eyes, the most important thing to many around these parts, Swanson has been a bit overmatched in the 2 hole. Last year when he was batting in front of the pitcher, he was able to take advantage of pitchers being willing to walk him. Now that they are attacking him agreesisively to keep him off the bases in front of Freeman, he is getting exposed a bit.

He might end up being an average player, but I would be surprised if he doesn't post a .700 OPS from here on out though.

gonna be hard striking out almost a quarter of the time
 
I was one of the homer who thought the projections for Swanson of .250/.315/.390 were way too low. Now we are hoping those projections end up being correct.
 
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