Debbie Downer maybe but I just don't see the optimism

nsacpi said:
there are a couple areas I would flag as overoptimistic...the decline at catcher could be larger...we got incredible production from Flowers/Suzuki last year...also Gohara/McCarthy being +3 over Garcia/Dickey looks a bit much
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Did we even get 2.5 wins from them last year? I can't get Garcias numbers for us.

I personally think that Gohara will be around 3.5 next year. He is just that good. This is without further developing is changeup. If that got better then all bets are off. You could be looking at a 5 win pitcher.

McCarthy needs to stay healthy and thats the big question but his pacing makes me feel comfortable about giving him around 2. I'm going to assume worse rate production but better health.

Good point on the catcher performance. Last year was really special.
 
Baseball is a funny sport. Teams with good young talent like this always have a chance to catch lightning in a bottle. Just as many players struggle when coming up to the majors some have fluky good performance. Soroka could get Cy Young votes this year and never do much of anything the rest of his career. Not every player has to be good for a long period of time to be of value. I always enjoy watching the young players coming up in the majors so 2018 should be fun to watch unless they all crap the bed. I am really happy the way the team is set up for the future now that we got rid of Kemp, didnt trade the farm to win sooner, and avoided bloated free agent contracts. We might not win this year but we are set up really well for the future. Maybe all we need this year is to be good enough to lure some big free agents like Machado.
 
thethe said:
Did we even get 2.5 wins from them last year? I can't get Garcias numbers for us.

I personally think that Gohara will be around 3.5 next year. He is just that good. This is without further developing is changeup. If that got better then all bets are off. You could be looking at a 5 win pitcher.

McCarthy needs to stay healthy and thats the big question but his pacing makes me feel comfortable about giving him around 2. I'm going to assume worse rate production but better health.

Good point on the catcher performance. Last year was really special.
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For the season as a whole Garcia was 2 wins. Flowers/Suzuki were 4.2 combined
 
There was never really any reason to be excited about winning in 2018.

The excitement comes from watching the development of all the young guys.

If you can't get excited about watching Swanson, Albies and Acuna prove themselves over 500+ PAs, or watching Gohara and Newk try to prove themselves over 15+ starts, or the prospect of seeing Soroka and Wright make their debuts...you won't be excited for another 1-2 years.
 
I also like the fact we will have some very good starting pitching depth in AAA. Fried, Sims, Allard and Soroka will likely start the season there and I would expect a couple of them to make a significant number of major league starts.
 
My post is about the Team and its prospects overall.

Of course it will be exciting to see how/if the young guys develop. But, you play to win the game. And, all the deck chair moving over the last four years really hasn't brought the Team much closer to being relevant and potentially they are further away.

The offense is going to stink. No doubt in my mind about that.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
My post is about the Team and its prospects overall.

Of course it will be exciting to see how/if the young guys develop. But, you play to win the game. And, all the deck chair moving over the last four years really hasn't brought the Team much closer to being relevant and potentially they are further away.

The offense is going to stink. No doubt in my mind about that.
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2019 is the year the toast will be ready to be taken out of the toaster
 
nsacpi said:
2019 is the year the toast will be ready to be taken out of the toaster
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Let's hope so.

My fear is that former management subscribed to the leaky boat form of rebuilding: hole appears, bail, bail, bail, plug hole. Two holes appear - bail, bail, bail, bail plug hole, plug hol..another hole appears, and repeat until the boat sinks.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Let's hope so.

My fear is that former management subscribed to the leaky boat form of rebuilding: hole appears, bail, bail, bail, plug hole. Two holes appear - bail, bail, bail, bail plug hole, plug hol..another hole appears, and repeat until the boat sinks.
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sure there's been some of that...improv...can't be helped really...no plan survives contact with reality entirely intact...but you are right that there has been more making things up on the fly than was necessary
 
I’m hoping for the young hitters to grow, young arms to impress in the big leagues, and ultimately lose a lot of games to get another high draft pick. Whether all of those can actually happen at the same time, I’m not sure.
 
No Dickey, no Colon, no Kemp.

This year is about watching the kids play, and as long as there is progression from our young guys, I’m not all that concerned about our record.

Did I mention no Kemp?
 
mossy said:
No Dickey, no Colon, no Kemp.

This year is about watching the kids play, and as long as there is progression from our young guys, I’m not all that concerned about our record.

Did I mention no Kemp?
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Obviously more leftovers on the post-game spread.
 
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